2.5.1 Order of Results
There is a certain logical order in which results should be presented.
Typically, results progress from most parsimonious (e.g., a simple, bivariate
regression of
y on
D) to least parsimonious (i.e., a regression of
y on
D and
a full set of control variables
x). With experimental variation in
D, this is
not as useful as with
observational variation in D. In the former case,
adding controls on the right-hand side of the
equation of interest will in
principle not change the sign and the magnitude of the estimated treatment
effect. Rather, it will only make the estimate of the treatment effect more
precise (i.e., it will reduce the standard error around it).
8
In the latter case, where one cannot assume that
E(
y|x) =
E(
y|do(
x)), the
most-to-least-parsimonious approach is one first step toward assessing the
robustness of one’s results: if the sign and
the magnitude do not change
much or at all as one adds in control variables on the right-hand side, this
suggests that one’s results are already somewhat robust. This is in the spirit
of Altonji et al.’s (2005) approach to robustness (although Oster 2019
critiques Altonji et al. 2005 and suggests a new method aimed at assessing
how important unobserved heterogeneity is in a given application).
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