© 1st Forex Trading Academy 2004
39
Fundamental
Analysis
Participants in Forex include central banks, corporations, individual investors and speculators, and
hedge funds. With the advent of
electronic trading platforms, self-directed investors and smaller
financial firms now have access to the same liquidity as larger market participants.
Trading, or speculation, makes up 95% of the daily volume. The other 5% of daily volume consists
of governments and commercial companies converting one currency into another from buying and
selling goods and services.
Description
Fundamental analysis requires, among other things, a close examination
of the Forex in order
to determine its current financial strength, future growth and profitability prospects, and current
management skills, in order to estimate whether the currency price is undervalued or overvalued.
A good deal of reliance is placed on annual and quarterly earnings reports, the economic, political
and competitive environment facing the country, as well as any current news currency or rumors
relating to the economy. Simply put, fundamental analysis concerns itself with the «basics» of the
business in assessing the worth of a currency. Fundamental analysis may be the preferred method
to use for mid to longer term investors. However, it is not suitable for use by day traders because of
the amount of research required, and the fact that trades are entered into and exited within a very
short time frame.
At its broadest, Fundamental Analysis studies any data that might be expected to impact the price
or perceived value of a currency, other than analyzing the trading patterns of that Forex itself.
Fundamentals include economic factors, industry-specific trends,
capital market conditions, and
company-specific data and qualities. Within fundamental analysis lie the equally broad concepts
of quantitative analysis, where economic or company-specific numerical data are analyzed with
computer software and other objective means, and qualitative analysis, which examine less tangible
concepts such as technology strength and management effectiveness.
Read and understand a Forex Quote
A Forex quote is always a two-sided quote with a ‘bid’ and ‘offer’. The ‘bid’ is the price at which you
can sell the base currency (i.e. buy the second currency). The ‘offer’ is the price at which you can buy
the base currency (i.e. sell the second currency).
As mentioned before, the first currency listed is the base currency. In the major currency pairs the
US dollar is traditionally treated as the base currency this includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and
USD/CAD. In this case $1 USD (the base currency) is quoted in terms of the second currency.
For example, a quote of USD/JPY = 112.25 means that one US dollar is equal to 112.25 Japanese
Yen.
© 1st Forex Trading Academy 2004
41
Fundamental Analysis
Best Times to Trade
EUR/USD
During
the Tokyo session, the Euro only trades 15% of all volume so it is best to start watching the
Euro late in the Tokyo session. It trades 39% of all Forex volume during the London session. It can
also be traded during the New York session.
GBP/USD
The pound trades extremely lightly during the Tokyo session. Start watching it near the end of
the Tokyo session as it can start moving then. In the London session, GBP/USD
accounts for
approximately 23% of all Forex trading volume. The pound can be traded in the New York session
also.
USD/JPY
During the Tokyo session, USD/JPY accounts for approximately 78% of all Forex volume. This
drops to about 17% during the London session. There are occasional days when these 3 pairs make
significant price moves outside the sessions which normally have the most trading volume.
News Releases / Economic Data Releases
23:50 GMT Japan Fundamentals
07:45 GMT Euro Fundamentals
13:30
GMT USA Economic Figures
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