Table 4 Average monthly R, MRSH, MRSZ and MS for each year
from 09/2007 to 06/2012
year R(%)
MRSH(%)
MRSZ(%)
MS(%)
2007
-0.301
0.204
-0.241
0.228
2008
-6.627
-8.843
-8.367
1.380
2009
6.319
4.897
6.232
2.118
2010
-2.269
-1.287
-0.792
1.458
2011
-0.547
-2.036
-2.785
1.350
2012
-0.327
0.196
1.053
1.395
Note: R, MRSH, MRSZ and MS stand for banking industry sector stock return, Shanghai stock
exchange market return, Shenzhen stock exchange market return, money supply
.
According to table 4, from 2007 to 2008, the average of the growth rate of MS
is increase, at the same time, the average of three of stock return is decrease. But in
2008 to 2009, the average of the growth rate of MS is increase, and the stock returns
also increase. From 2009 to 2010, the average of the growth rate of MS is decrease,
the stock returns also decrease. From 2010 to 2011, the average of the growth rate of
MS is decrease a little bit, and the both MRSH and MRSZ also decrease, but banking
stock return increase. And from 2011 to 2012, the average of the growth rate of MS is
increase, the stock return also increase. We can see the Figure 3, the trend of MS and
the stock returns almost the same.
37
Note: R, MRSH, MRSZ and MS stand for banking industry sector stock return, Shanghai stock
exchange market return, Shenzhen stock exchange market return, money supply.
Figure 3 the trend of R, MRSH, MRSZ and money supply
‐10
‐8
‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
R
MRSH
MRSZ
MS
38
Table 5 Average monthly R, MRSH, MRSZ and INT for each year
from 09/2007 to 06/2012
year R
MRSH
MRSZ
INT
2007 -0.30126
0.203906
-0.24104 2.69
2008 -6.62685 -8.84288 -8.36691 2.528333
2009 6.318984
4.897414
6.23186
1.068333
2010 -2.2692
-1.28725
-0.79155
1.745833
2011 -0.54684 -2.03589 -2.78536 3.338333
2012 -0.32696
0.195941
1.052697
3.081667
Note: R, MRSH, MRSZ and INT stand for banking industry sector stock return, Shanghai stock
exchange market return, Shenzhen stock exchange market return, interest rate.
Table 5 is the average of the monthly data of R, MRSH, MRSZ and INT. The
data shows the potential relationship between these four factors. From 2007 to 2008,
the average interest rate is decrease, stock returns also show the decrease trend. But
from 2008 to 2009, when INT shows the decrease trend, the R, MRSH and MRSZ
show the increase trend. When INT shows the increase trend, the R, MRSH and
MRSZ show the decrease trend which according to the result from 2009 to 2010,
2010 to 2011 and 2011 to 2012, it always show the opposite trend with stock returns
which includes R, MRSH and MRSZ. Like the Figure 4:
39
Note: R, MRSH, MRSZ and INT stand for banking industry sector stock return, Shanghai stock
exchange market return, Shenzhen stock exchange market return, interest rate.
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