Microsoft Word lina 's topic

3.3 Expected result 
The result expects that each macro-economic variables exert an important 
influence on bank stock returns independent of the other market factors. Such as the 
inflation rate have a positive impact on banking stock return which the same as Tan 
and Floros (2012) and Gultekin (1983); And exchange rate has a positive and 
significant impact on the baking stock return which the same as Choi, Elyasiani and 
Kopecky (1992) and Joseph and Vezos (2006); The money supply have positive 
impact on banking stock return which same with Zatul and Mohamed( 2007) and the 
interest rate has a negative and significant impact on the banking stock return which 
the same with Yourougon (1990) and Zhu and Li (2007).
 
3.4 Conclusion
In chapter three, we discussed the data and methodology. For the following 
chapter, we will discuss the results of the above statistical tests. 
 
 

---

29 
CHAPTER 4 
 
Data Analysis 
 
4.0 Introduction 
This chapter presents the results and interpretation of the study. The first 
section of the chapter performed the description analysis for the stock returns in China 
and the macroeconomic variables that found to be potentially affecting the stock 
returns. In this section, the mean, median, maximum, minimum, standard deviation 
and observations of each variable will be analyzed. The
second section is the 
empirical result which includes the correlation analysis and generalized least squares 
(GLS) regression.  
 
4.1 Descriptive Analysis 
This section of the chapter shows the descriptive analysis for the stock return 
of banking industry sector, Shanghai stock exchange market and Shenzhen stock 
exchange market in China, and the macroeconomic variables that found to be 
potentially affecting the stock return. In this section, the mean, median, maximum, 
minimum, standard deviation and observations of each variable will be analyzed. And 
the result is reported in Table 1. 

---

30 
Table 1 Descriptive Information of Macroeconomic factors impacting stock returns in 
period 9/2007-6/2012 
Mean 
Median 
Maximum
Minimum 
Std. Dev. 
Observations 
R(%) 
-0.701
1.001
25.203
-32.658
10.403
58
MRSH(%) 
-1.470
0.343
14.234
-28.278
9.696
58 
MRSZ(%) 
-1.090
0.724
16.713
-25.816
10.533
58 
INF(%) 
-0.068
-0.095
1.494
-2.574
0.723
58 
EX 
100.103 100.120 
109.400 
88.670
5.375
58 
MS(%) 
1.520
1.340
4.720
-1.010
1.214
58
INT(%) 
2.300
2.290
4.560
0.830
0.994
58 
Note: R, MRSH, MRSZ, INF, EX, MS, and INT stand for banking industry sector stock return, 
Shanghai stock exchange market return, Shenzhen stock exchange market return, inflation rate, 
exchange rate, money supply and interest rate. 
Table 1 reports consolidated descriptive statistics of the macroeconomic 
variables that cause a fluctuation in stock returns which include banking industry 
sector stock return, Shanghai stock exchange market return, Shenzhen stock exchange 
market return. From the table, we can see that during the period from September 2007 
to June 2012, the average of banking industry sector stock return is -0.7%, it means in 
this period the whole banking industry’s performance is not quite good, this result is 
the same with Yong and Christos (2012). And the maximum is 25.2% and the 
minimum is -32.7%. It also shows that the performance of banking industry is poor. 
According to the table, the average of MRSH and MRSZ also negative, they are -1.5% 
and -1.1%. It can reflect the whole stock market in China, the returns from both two 
stock market is negative, the performance of the Chinese stock market still week. The 
maximum return always less than the minimum return in both two markets. And the 
result also show that the mean of the MRSH is negative, at the same time, the mean of 
MRSZ and the mean of R also negative; and the median of MRSH positive, at the 

---

31 
same time, the MRSZ and the R also positive, and the maximum or the minimum also 
get the same trend. The average of the inflation rate in this period shows negative 
result, it is about -0.07%, and the median is -0.095%, the maximum is 1.494% and the 
minimum is -2.574%, the result indicate that during this time, Chinese inflation rate is 
not high and stable. The average of the exchange rate in this period it is about 100.103 
and the median is 100.120, the maximum is 109.400 and the minimum is 88.670. The 
average monthly growth rate of money supply (MS) is 1.520%, the maximum growth 
rate is 1.340% and the minimum growth rate is -1.010%, it means in some month, 
money supply is decease. From the result of interest rate, the average interest rate is 
2.300%, and the maximum is 4.560% and the minimum is 0.830%, it shows that the 
unstable interest rate change during this period.

---

32