The Wall Street Journal, and other media outlets published pieces on the
sandwich. The Discovery channel filmed a segment for its Best Food Ever
show. David Beckham had one when he was in town. David Letterman
invited Barclay’s executive chef to New York to cook him one on the Late
Show. All that buzz for what is still, at its heart, just a sandwich.
The buzz helped. Barclay Prime opened nearly a decade ago. Against the
odds, the restaurant has not only survived but flourished. It has won various
food awards and is listed among the best steakhouses in Philadelphia year
after year. But more important, it built a following. Barclay Prime caught
on.
WHY DO PRODUCTS, IDEAS, AND BEHAVIORS CATCH
ON?
There are lots of examples of things that have caught on. Yellow Livestrong
wristbands. Nonfat Greek yogurt. Six Sigma management strategy.
Smoking bans. Low-fat diets. Then Atkins, South Beach, and the low-carb
craze. The same dynamic happens on a smaller scale at the local level. A
certain gym will be the trendy place to go. A new church or synagogue will
be in vogue. Everyone will get behind a new school referendum.
These are all examples of social epidemics. Instances where products,
ideas, and behaviors diffuse through a population. They start with a small
set of individuals or organizations and spread, often from person to person,
almost like a virus. Or in the case of the hundred-dollar cheesesteak, an
over-the-top, wallet-busting virus.
But while it’s easy to find examples of social contagion, it’s much harder
to actually get something to catch on. Even with all the money poured into
marketing and advertising, few products become popular. Most restaurants
bomb, most businesses go under, and most social movements fail to gain
traction.
Why do some products, ideas, and behaviors succeed when others fail?
—————
One reason some products and ideas become popular is that they are just
plain better. We tend to prefer websites that are easier to use, drugs that are
more effective, and scientific theories that are true rather than false. So
when something comes along that offers better functionality or does a better
job, people tend to switch to it. Remember how bulky televisions or
computer monitors used to be? They were so heavy and cumbersome that
you had to ask a couple of friends (or risk a strained back) to carry one up a
flight of stairs. One reason flat screens took off was that they were better.
Not only did they offer larger screens, but they weighed less. No wonder
they became popular.
Another reason products catch on is attractive pricing. Not surprisingly,
most people prefer paying less rather than more. So if two very similar
products are competing, the cheaper one often wins out. Or if a company
cuts its prices in half, that tends to help sales.
Advertising also plays a role. Consumers need to know about something
before they can buy it. So people tend to think that the more they spend on
advertising, the more likely something will become popular. Want to get
people to eat more vegetables? Spending more on ads should increase the
number of people who hear your message and buy broccoli.
—————
But although quality, price, and advertising contribute to products and
ideas being successful, they don’t explain the whole story.
Take the first names Olivia and Rosalie. Both are great names for girls.
Olivia means “olive tree” in Latin and is associated with fruitfulness,
beauty, and peace. Rosalie has Latin and French origins and is derived from
the word for roses. Both are about the same length, end in vowels, and have
handy, cute nicknames. Indeed, thousands of babies are named Olivia or
Rosalie each year.
But think for a moment about how many people you know with each
name. How many people you’ve met named Olivia and how many people
you’ve met named Rosalie.
I’ll bet you know at least one Olivia, but you probably don’t know a
Rosalie. In fact, if you do know a Rosalie, I’ll bet you know several
Olivias.
How did I know that? Olivia is a much more popular name. In 2010, for
example, there were almost 17,000 Olivias born in the United States but
only 492 Rosalies. In fact, while the name Rosalie was somewhat popular
in the 1920s, it never reached the stratospheric popularity that Olivia
recently achieved.
When trying to explain why Olivia became a more popular name than
Rosalie, familiar explanations like quality, price, and advertising get stuck.
It’s not like one name is really “better” than the other, and both names are
free, so there is no difference in price. There is also no advertising
campaign to try to get everyone to name their kids Olivia, no company
determined to make that name the hottest thing since Pokémon.
The same thing can be said for videos on YouTube. There’s no difference
in price (all are free to watch), and few videos receive any advertising or
marketing push. And although some videos have higher production values,
most that go viral are blurred and out of focus, shot by an amateur on an
inexpensive camera or cell phone.
*
So if quality, price, and advertising don’t explain why one first name
becomes more popular than another, or why one You-Tube video gets more
views, what does?
SOCIAL TRANSMISSION
Social influence and word of mouth. People love to share stories, news, and
information with those around them. We tell our friends about great
vacation destinations, chat with our neighbors about good deals, and gossip
with coworkers about potential layoffs. We write online reviews about
movies, share rumors on Facebook, and tweet about recipes we just tried.
People share more than 16,000 words per day and every hour there are
more than 100 million conversations about brands.
But word of mouth is not just frequent, it’s also important. The things
others tell us, e-mail us, and text us have a significant impact on what we
think, read, buy, and do. We try websites our neighbors recommend, read
books our relatives praise, and vote for candidates our friends endorse.
Word of mouth is the primary factor behind 20 percent to 50 percent of all
purchasing decisions.
Consequently, social influence has a huge impact on whether products,
ideas, and behaviors catch on. A word-of-mouth conversation by a new
customer leads to an almost $200 increase in restaurant sales. A five-star
review on Amazon.com leads to approximately twenty more books sold
than a one-star review. Doctors are more likely to prescribe a new drug if
other doctors they know have prescribed it. People are more likely to quit
smoking if their friends quit and get fatter if their friends become obese. In
fact, while traditional advertising is still useful, word of mouth from
everyday Joes and Janes is at least ten times more effective.
Word of mouth is more effective than traditional advertising for two key
reasons. First, it’s more persuasive. Advertisements usually tell us how
great a product is. You’ve heard it all—how nine out of ten dentists
recommend Crest or how no other detergent will get your clothes as clean
as Tide.
But because ads will always argue that their products are the best, they’re
not really credible. Ever seen a Crest ad say that only one out of ten dentists
prefers Crest? Or that four of the other nine think Crest will rot your teeth?
Our friends, however, tend to tell it to us straight. If they thought Crest
did a good job, they’ll say that. But they’d also tell us if Crest tasted bad or
failed to whiten their teeth. Their objectivity, coupled with their candidness,
make us much more likely to trust, listen to, and believe our friends.
Second, word of mouth is more targeted. Companies try to advertise in
ways that allow them to reach the largest number of interested customers.
Take a company that sells skis. Television ads during the nightly news
probably wouldn’t be very efficient because many of the viewers don’t ski.
So the company might advertise in a ski magazine, or on the back of lift
tickets to a popular slope. But while this would ensure that most people
who see the ad like skiing, the company would still end up wasting money
because lots of those people don’t need new skis.
Word of mouth, on the other hand, is naturally directed toward an
interested audience. We don’t share a news story or recommendation with
everyone we know. Rather, we tend to select particular people who we think
would find that given piece of information most relevant. We’re not going
to tell a friend about a new pair of skis if we know the friend hates skiing.
And we’re not going to tell a friend who doesn’t have kids about the best
way to change a diaper. Word of mouth tends to reach people who are
actually interested in the thing being discussed. No wonder customers
referred by their friends spend more, shop faster, and are more profitable
overall.
A particularly nice example of how word of mouth improves targeting
came to me in the mail a few years ago. Every so often publishers will send
me free books. Usually they’re related to marketing and the publisher hopes
that if I’m given a free copy, I’ll be more likely to assign the book to my
students (and sell them a bunch of copies in the process).
But a few years ago, one company did something slightly different. It
sent me two copies of the same book.
Now, unless I’m mistaken, there’s no reason for me to read the second
copy, once I’ve read the first. But these publishers had a different goal in
mind. They sent a note explaining why they thought the book would be
good for my students, but they also mentioned that they sent a second copy
so that I could pass it along to a colleague who might be interested.
That’s how word of mouth helps with targeting. Rather than sending
books to everyone, the publishers got me, and others, to do the targeting for
them. Just like a searchlight, each recipient of the double mailing would
look through his or her personal social network, find the person that the
book would be most relevant for, and pass it along.
GENERATING WORD OF MOUTH
But want to know the best thing about word of mouth? It’s available to
everyone. From Fortune 500 companies trying to increase sales to corner
restaurants trying to fill tables. And from nonprofits trying to fight obesity
to newbie politicians trying to get elected. Word of mouth helps things
catch on. Word of mouth even helps B2B companies get new clients from
existing ones. And it doesn’t require millions of dollars spent on
advertising. It just requires getting people to talk.
The challenge, though, is how to do that.
From start-ups to starlets, people have embraced social media as the
wave of the future. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and other channels are
seen as ways to cultivate a following and engage consumers. Brands post
ads, aspiring musicians post videos, and small businesses post deals.
Companies and organizations have fallen over themselves in their rush to
jump on the buzz marketing bandwagon. The logic is straightforward. If
they can get people to talk about their idea or share their content, it will
spread through social networks like a virus, making their product or idea
instantly popular along the way.
But there are two issues with this approach: the focus and the execution.
Help me out with a quick pop quiz. What percent of word of mouth do
you think happens online? In other words, what percent of chatter happens
over social media, blogs, e-mail, and chat rooms?
If you’re like most people you probably guessed something around 50 or
60 percent. Some people guess upward of 70 percent and some guess much
lower, but after having asked this question of hundreds of students and
executives, I find that the average is around 50 percent.
And that number makes sense. After all, social media have certainly
exploded as of late. Millions of people use these sites every day, and
billions of pieces of content get shared every month. These technologies
have made it faster and easier to share things quickly with a broad group of
people.
But 50 percent is wrong.
Not even close.
The actual number is 7 percent. Not 47 percent, not 27 percent, but 7
percent. Research by the Keller Fay Group finds that only 7 percent of word
of mouth happens online.
Most people are extremely surprised when they hear that number. “But
that’s way too low,” they protest. “People spend a huge amount of time
online!” And that’s true. People do spend a good bit of time online. Close to
two hours a day by some estimates. But we forget that people also spend a
lot of time offline. More than eight times as much, in fact. And that creates
a lot more time for offline conversations.
We also tend to overestimate online word of mouth because it’s easier to
see. Social media sites provide a handy record of all the clips, comments,
and other content we share online. So when we look at it, it seems like a lot.
But we don’t think as much about all the offline conversations we had over
that same time period because we can’t easily see them. There is no
recording of the chat we had with Susan after lunch or the conversation we
had with Tim while waiting for the kids to be done with practice. But while
they may not be as easy to see, they still have an important impact on our
behavior.
Further, while one might think that online word of mouth reaches more
people, that’s not always the case. Sure, online conversations could reach
more people. After all, while face-to-face conversations tend to be one-on-
one, or among a small handful of people, the average tweet or Facebook
status update is sent to more than one hundred people. But not all of these
potential recipients will actually see every message. People are inundated
with online content, so they don’t have the time to read every tweet,
message, or update sent their way. A quick exercise among my students, for
example, showed that less than 10 percent of their friends responded to a
message they posted. Most Twitter posts reach even fewer. Online
conversations could reach a much larger audience, but given that offline
conversations may be more in-depth, it’s unclear that social media is the
better way to go.
So the first issue with all the hype around social media is that people tend
to ignore the importance of offline word of mouth, even though offline
discussions are more prevalent, and potentially even more impactful, than
online ones.
The second issue is that Facebook and Twitter are technologies, not
strategies. Word-of-mouth marketing is effective only if people actually
talk. Public health officials can tweet daily bulletins about safe sex, but if
but no one passes them along, the campaign will fail. Just putting up a
Facebook page or tweeting doesn’t mean anyone will notice or spread the
word. Fifty percent of YouTube videos have fewer than five hundred views.
Only one-third of 1 percent get more than 1 million.
Harnessing the power of word of mouth, online or offline, requires
understanding why people talk and why some things get talked about and
shared more than others. The psychology of sharing. The science of social
transmission.
The next time you’re chatting at a party or grabbing a bite to eat with a
coworker, imagine being a fly on the wall, eavesdropping on your
conversation. You might end up chatting about a new movie or gossiping
about a colleague. You might trade stories about vacation, mention
someone’s new baby, or complain about the unusually warm weather.
Why? You could have talked about anything. There are millions of
different topics, ideas, products, and stories you could have discussed. Why
did you talk about those things in particular? Why that specific story,
movie, or coworker rather than a different one?
Certain stories are more contagious, and certain rumors are more
infectious. Some online content goes viral while other content never gets
passed on. Some products get a good deal of word of mouth, while others
go unmentioned. Why? What causes certain products, ideas, and behaviors
to be talked about more?
That’s what this book is about.
—————
One common intuition is that generating word of mouth is all about
finding the right people. That certain special individuals are just more
influential than others. In The Tipping Point, for example, Malcolm
Gladwell argues that social epidemics are driven “by the efforts of a handful
of exceptional people” whom he calls mavens, connectors, and salesmen.
Others suggest that “one in 10 Americans tells the other nine how to vote,
where to eat, and what to buy.” Marketers spend millions of dollars trying
to find these so-called opinion leaders and get them to endorse their
products. Political campaigns look for the “influentials” to support their
side.
The notion is that anything these special people touch will turn to gold. If
they adopt or talk about a product or idea, it will become popular.
But conventional wisdom is wrong. Yes, we all know people who are
really persuasive, and yes, some people have more friends than others. But
in most cases that doesn’t make them any more influential in spreading
information or making things go viral.
Further, by focusing so much on the messenger, we’ve neglected a much
more obvious driver of sharing: the message.
To use an analogy, think about jokes. We all have friends who are better
joke tellers than we are. Whenever they tell a joke the room bursts out
laughing.
But jokes also vary. Some jokes are so funny that it doesn’t matter who
tells them. Everyone laughs even if the person sharing the joke isn’t all that
funny. Contagious content is like that—so inherently viral that it spreads
regardless of who is doing the talking. Regardless of whether the
messengers are really persuasive or not and regardless of whether they have
ten friends or ten thousand.
—————
So what about a message makes people want to pass it on?
Not surprisingly, social media “gurus” and word-of-mouth practitioners
have made lots of guesses. One prevalent theory is that virality is
completely random—that it’s impossible to predict whether a given video
or piece of content will be highly shared. Other people conjecture based on
case studies and anecdotes. Because so many of the most popular YouTube
videos are either funny or cute—involving babies or kittens—you
commonly hear that humor or cuteness is a key ingredient for virality.
But these “theories” ignore the fact that many funny or cute videos never
take off. Sure, some cat clips get millions of views, but those are the
outliers, not the norm. Most get less than a few dozen.
You may as well observe that Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, and Bill Cosby are
all famous and conclude that changing your name to Bill is the route to
fame and fortune. Although the initial observation is correct, the conclusion
is patently ludicrous. By merely looking at a handful of viral hits, people
miss the fact that many of those features also exist in content that failed to
attract any audience whatsoever. To fully understand what causes people to
share things, you have to look at both successes and failures. And whether,
more often than not, certain characteristics are linked to success.
ARE SOME THINGS JUST BORN WORD-OF-MOUTH
WORTHY?
Now at this point you might be saying to yourself, great, some things are
more contagious than others. But is it possible to make anything contagious,
or are some things just naturally more infectious?
Smartphones tend to be more exciting than tax returns, talking dogs are
more interesting than tort reform, and Hollywood movies are cooler than
toasters or blenders.
Are makers of the former just better off than the latter? Are some
products and ideas just born contagious while others aren’t? Or can any
product or idea be engineered to be more infectious?
—————
Tom Dickson was looking for a new job. Born in San Francisco, he was
led by his Mormon faith to attend school at Brigham Young University in
Salt Lake City, where he graduated in 1971 with a degree in engineering.
He moved home after graduation, but the job market was tough and there
weren’t many opportunities. The only position he could find was at a
company making birth control and intrauterine devices. These devices
helped prevent pregnancy, but they could also be seen as abortives, which
went against Tom’s Mormon beliefs. A Mormon helping to develop new
methods of birth control? It was time to find something new.
Tom had always been interested in bread making. While practicing his
hobby, he noticed that there were no good cheap home grinders with which
to make flour. So Tom put his engineering skills to work. After playing
around with a ten-dollar vacuum motor, he cobbled together something that
milled finer flour at a cheaper price than anything currently on the market.
The grinder was so good that Tom started producing it on a larger scale.
The business did reasonably well, and playing around with different
methods of processing food got him interested in more general blenders.
Soon he moved back to Utah to start his own blender company. In 1995 he
produced his first home blender, and in 1999 Blendtec was founded.
But although the product was great, no one really knew about it.
Awareness was low. So in 2006, Tom hired George Wright, another BYU
alum, as his marketing director. Later, George would joke that the
marketing budget at his prior company was greater than all of Blendtec’s
revenues.
On one of his first days on the job, George noticed a pile of sawdust on
the floor of the manufacturing plant. Given that no construction was in
progress, George was puzzled. What was going on?
It turned out that Tom was in the factory doing what he did every day:
trying to break blenders. To test the durability and power of Blendtec
blenders, Tom would cram two-by-two boards, among other objects, into
the blenders and turn them on—hence the sawdust.
George had an idea that would make Tom’s blender famous.
With a meager fifty-dollar budget (not fifty million or even fifty
thousand), George went out and bought marbles, golf balls, and a rake. He
also purchased a white lab coat for Tom, just like what a laboratory scientist
would wear. Then he put Tom and a blender in front of a camera. George
asked Tom to do exactly what he had done with the two-by-twos: see if they
would blend.
Imagine taking a handful of marbles and tossing them into your home
blender. Not the cheap kind of marbles made of plastic or clay, but the real
ones. The half-inch orbs made out of solid glass. So strong that they could
withstand a car driving over them.
That is exactly what Tom did. He dropped fifty glass marbles in one of
his blenders and hit the button for slow churn. The marbles bounced
furiously around the blender, making rat-tat-tat noises like a hailstorm on
the roof of a car.
Tom waited fifteen seconds and then stopped the blender. He cautiously
lifted the top as white smoke poured out: glass dust. All that was left of the
marbles was a fine powder that looked like flour. Rather than cracking from
the punishment, the blender had flexed its muscles. Golf balls were
pulverized, and the rake was reduced to a pile of slivers. George posted the
videos on YouTube and crossed his fingers.
His intuition was right. People were amazed. They loved the videos.
They were surprised at the blender’s power and called it everything from
“insanely awesome” to “the ultimate blender.” Some couldn’t even believe
that what they were seeing was possible. Others wondered what else the
blender could pulverize. Computer hard drives? A samurai sword?
In the first week the videos racked up 6 million views. Tom and George
had hit a viral home run.
Tom went on to blend everything from Bic lighters to Nintendo Wii
controllers. He’s tried glow sticks, Justin Bieber CDs, and even an iPhone.
Not only did Blendtec blenders demolish all these objects, but their video
series, titled Will It Blend?, received more than 300 million views. Within
two years the campaign increased retail blender sales 700 percent. All from
videos made for less than a few hundred dollars apiece. And for a product
that seemed anything but word-of-mouth worthy. A regular, boring old
blender.
—————
The Blendtec story demonstrates one of the key takeaways of contagious
content. Virality isn’t born, it’s made.
And that is good news indeed.
Some people are lucky. Their ideas or initiatives happen to be things that
seem to naturally generate lots of excitement and buzz.
But as the Blendtec story shows, even regular everyday products and
ideas can generate lots of word-of-mouth if someone figures out the right
way to do it. Regardless of how plain or boring a product or idea may seem,
there are ways to make it contagious.
So how can we design products, ideas, and behaviors so that people will
talk about them?
STUDYING SOCIAL INFLUENCE
My path to studying social epidemics was anything but direct. My parents
didn’t believe in sweets or television for their children, and instead gave us
educational rewards. One holiday season I remember being particularly
excited to get a book of logic puzzles, which I explored incessantly over the
next few months. These experiences fostered an interest in math and
science, and after doing a research project in high school on urban
hydrology (how the composition of a stream’s watershed affects its shape), I
went to college thinking I would become an environmental engineer.
But something funny happened in college. While sitting in one of my
“hard” science classes, I started to wonder if I could apply the same toolkit
to study complex social phenomena. I had always liked people-watching,
and when I did happen to watch TV, I enjoyed it more for the ads than the
programs. But I realized that rather than just abstractly musing about why
people did things, I could apply the scientific method to find out the
answers. The same research tools used in biology and chemistry could be
used to understand social influence and interpersonal communication.
So I started taking psychology and sociology courses and got involved in
research on how people perceive themselves and others. A few years in, my
grandmother sent me a review of a new book she thought I might find
interesting. It was called The Tipping Point.
I loved the book and read everything related I could find. But I kept
being frustrated by a singular issue. The ideas in that book were amazingly
powerful, but they were mainly descriptive. Sure some things catch on, but
why? What was the underlying human behavior that drove these outcomes?
These were interesting questions that needed answers. I decided to start
finding them.
—————
After completing my PhD and more than a decade of research, I’ve
discovered some answers. I’ve spent the last ten years, most recently as a
marketing professor at the Wharton School at the University of
Pennsylvania, studying this and related questions. With an incredible array
of collaborators I’ve examined things like
• Why certain New York Times articles or YouTube videos go viral
• Why some products get more word of mouth
• Why certain political messages spread
• When and why certain baby names catch on or die out
• When negative publicity increases, versus decreases, sales
We’ve analyzed hundreds of years of baby names, thousands of New York
Times articles, and millions of car purchases. We’ve spent thousands of
hours collecting, coding, and analyzing everything from brands and
YouTube videos to urban legends, product reviews, and face-to-face
conversations. All with the goal of understanding social influence and what
drives certain things to become popular.
A few years ago, I started teaching a course at Wharton called
“Contagious.” The premise was simple. Whether you’re in marketing,
politics, engineering, or public health, you need to understand how to make
your products and ideas catch on. Brand managers want their products to
get more buzz. Politicians want their ideas to diffuse throughout the
population. Health officials want people to cook rather than eat fast food.
Hundreds of undergraduates, MBAs, and executives have taken the class
and learned about how social influence drives products, ideas, and
behaviors to succeed.
Every so often I’d get e-mails from people who couldn’t take the class.
They’d heard about it from a friend and liked the material but had a
scheduling conflict or didn’t find out about it in time. So they asked if there
was a book they could read to catch them up on what they missed.
There are certainly some great books out there. The Tipping Point is a
fantastic read. But while it is filled with entertaining stories, the science has
come a long way since it was released over a decade ago. Made to Stick, by
Chip and Dan Heath, is another favorite of mine (full disclosure: Chip was
my mentor in graduate school, so the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree). It
weaves together clever stories with academic research on cognitive
psychology and human memory. But although the Heaths’ book focuses on
making ideas “stick”—getting people to remember them—it says less about
how to make products and ideas spread, or getting people to pass them on.
So whenever people asked to read something about what drives word of
mouth, I would direct them to the various academic papers I and others had
published in the area. Inevitably, some people would e-mail back to say
thanks but request something more “accessible.” In other words, something
that was rigorous but less dry than the typical jargon-laden articles
published in academic journals. A book that provided them with research-
based principles for understanding what makes things catch on.
This is that book.
SIX PRINCIPLES OF CONTAGIOUSNESS
This book explains what makes content contagious. By “content,” I mean
stories, news, and information. Products and ideas, messages and videos.
Everything from fund-raising at the local public radio station to the safe-sex
messages we’re trying to teach our kids. By “contagious,” I mean likely to
spread. To diffuse from person to person via word of mouth and social
influence. To be talked about, shared, or imitated by consumers, coworkers,
and constituents.
In our research, my collaborators and I noticed some common themes, or
attributes, across a range of contagious content. A recipe, if you will, for
making products, ideas, and behaviors more likely to become popular.
Take Will It Blend? and the hundred-dollar cheesesteak at Barclay Prime.
Both stories evoke emotions like surprise or amazement: Who would have
thought a blender could tear through an iPhone, or that a cheesesteak would
cost anywhere near a hundred dollars? Both stories are also pretty
remarkable, so they make the teller look cool for passing them on. And both
offer useful information: it’s always helpful to know about products that
work well or restaurants that have great food.
Just as recipes often call for sugar to make something sweet, we kept
finding the same ingredients in ads that went viral, news articles that were
shared, or products that received lots of word of mouth.
After analyzing hundreds of contagious messages, products, and ideas,
we noticed that the same six “ingredients,” or principles, were often at
work. Six key STEPPS, as I call them, that cause things to be talked about,
shared, and imitated.
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