Science and Education in Karakalpakstan issn 2181-9203 Science Magazine chief editor

Science and Education in Karakalpakstan. 2023 №2/1 ISSN 2181-9203 
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this state, and thus, if you do not influence your geopolitical rivals, then be located in close 
proximity to their borders. 
In Kazakhstan, in recent years, there has been a significant increase in the influence of 
external players on the political system of the country, which is a direct threat to national security. 
These threats are primarily related to the involvement of Kazakhstan in the increased geopolitical 
competition between Russia, China, the US, the EU and other actors in Central Asia. An analysis of 
existing interdependencies at the global, regional and national levels makes it possible to identify 
factors that may, in the medium term, affect the emergence of political threats in Kazakhstan. One 
such threat is the rise of China's influence. Kazakhstan, as a neighboring state with close economic 
ties to Beijing, cannot avoid becoming more dependent on the politics and economic development 
of the PRC. In recent years, the expansion of economic ties between Kazakhstan and China 
continues, political interaction is maintained at the highest level, cooperation is expanding within 
the framework of international organizations and humanitarian cooperation is developing. One of 
the most important factors in the growth of China's influence has become the One Belt - One Road 
initiative, under which Chinese large investment funds are directed, among other things, to the 
transport infrastructure of Kazakhstan. The People's Republic of China is the main trade partner of 
Kazakhstan and provides it with huge loans. The attractiveness of Chinese loans and aid is 
determined by their less ideological conditionality compared to Western loans. The growth of 
China's influence on Kazakhstan is a significant factor generating such political risks as the growth 
of corruption, the priority given to Chinese goods and services, the increase in tied aid, and the 
protests of the population. The build-up of tied aid appears to be a risk due to the fact that China 
provides loans and investments tied to the mandatory use of Chinese materials, labor, and services. 
As a result, foreign companies are excluded from equal competition. And finally, the growing 
influence of China may cause a new round of protests among the population, who are afraid of 
Chinese expansion. But despite the above, the forecasts of many analysts is that the Chinese 
economic influence in Kazakhstan will continue to grow, gradually expanding to other areas. 
Russia is another strong foreign policy player that has a significant impact on Kazakhstan 
and the Central Asian region as a whole. It must be understood that Russia and Kazakhstan 
throughout the entire period of independence remained the most important economic and political 
partners. Russia's influence has grown significantly in recent years. First, Kazakhstan's accession to 
the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEU) in 2015 can be considered an important factor in 
strengthening Russia's influence on Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan and Russia are economically 
intertwined in the Eurasian Economic Union. The economy of Kazakhstan is highly dependent on 
domestic and international dynamics. Of course, Russia cannot control these dynamics directly, but 
the impact of these dynamics on Kazakhstan is a result of what is happening in Russia, which is the 
primary market and whose economy is closely intertwined with Kazakhstan's. 
The activities of the CSTO, which includes Kazakhstan, are of great importance as a factor 
of external influence. After the intervention of the Russian-led CSTO forces helped Kazakh 
President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev retain and even consolidate his power during the January 2022 
riots, many analysts began to speak openly about the growing influence of Russia in Kazakhstan, 
and that the country's leadership would have to do something. then pay the Kremlin for such 
support. It should be noted that Russia has two main economic levers in Kazakhstan - oil and 
energy infrastructure and water. In the first case, we are talking about the fact that 80% of 
Kazakhstani oil passes through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which is mainly controlled 
by Russia. Therefore, Russia has both direct economic leverage and indirect leverage. In addition, 
Kazakhstan and Russia are closely cooperating in the energy sector, cooperation is intensifying in 
the economic and military spheres, work is underway in the field of space, industrial cooperation, 

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