Table 4.29 Tourism summary indicators, 2006
Tourism
FTEs
%
GDP (06$m)
%
Business
units
%
Tourism-characteristic industries
1,170
2.6%
73.7
1.7%
242
1.9%
Tourism-related industries
500
1.1%
24.5
0.6%
110
0.9%
All non-tourism-related industries
777
1.7%
81.0
1.9%
229
1.8%
Taranaki
2,447
5.4%
179.2
4.1%
580
4.5%
New Zealand
115,694
6.4%
8,295
5.3%
23,566
5.3%
source:BERL Regional Database, Tourism Satellite Account
Tourism accounts for approximately 5.4 percent of employment in Taranaki, or 2,450 FTEs,
slightly below the national average of 6.4 percent.
Around 4.1 percent of regional GDP, or $179 million, is directly contributed by the tourism
sector, compared to 5.3 percent at a national level.
Around 580 business units, or 4.5 percent of the regional total, are directly related to the
tourism sector. This is a similar proportion to the 5.3 percent contribution of the tourism
sector seen nationally.
Figure 4.1 shows what portions of total tourism employment, GDP and businesses are
contributed by each of tourism-characteristic, tourism-related and all other industries.
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Figure 4.1 Contributions to employment, GDP and business units
FTE Share
31.8%
47.8%
20.4%
GDP Share
45.2%
13.7%
41.1%
Business Units Share
18.9%
39.5%
41.6%
Tourism-characteristic industries
Tourism-related industries
All non-tourism-related industries
source:BERL Regional Database, Statistics NZ
Tourism-characteristic industries provide almost half of all direct tourism employment in the
region, with one-fifth provided by tourism-related industries and one-third by other industries.
Interestingly, non-tourism-related industries provide the largest share of regional tourism
GDP, at 45 percent, and almost as many business units as tourism-characteristic industries,
at 40 percent.
Table 4.30 presents the recent performance of the tourism sector in Taranaki and New
Zealand.
Table 4.30 Recent performance of tourism sector, 2001 – 2006
Indicator
2001
2004
2005
2006
2005
2006
2001 to
2006
Employment (FTEs)
Taranaki
2,128
2,322
2,401
2,447
3.4
1.9
2.8
New Zealand
97,587
108,679
110,685
115,694
1.8
4.5
3.5
Value added or GDP ('06, $m)
Taranaki
157
173
178
179
3.0
0.8
2.7
New Zealand
6,894
7,792
8,140
8,295
4.5
1.9
3.8
Business units
Taranaki
505
562
571
580
1.7
1.6
2.8
New Zealand
19,200
22,302
23,092
23,566
3.5
2.1
4.2
source:BERL Regional Database, Tourism Satellite Account
%pa change
While growth in tourism in Taranaki has been lower than the New Zealand average across
all three indicators, its increasing importance is clear from the fact that tourism growth has
exceeded Taranaki growth as a whole.
Growth in tourism employment in Taranaki over the last five years was higher than for the
regional economy overall, at 2.8 percent per annum compared with 2.4 percent per annum.
While this was below national tourism employment growth (3.5 percent per annum).
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Employment growth within the tourism-characteristic industries has been very strong,
particularly in hospitality, which has achieved 5.2 percent per annum since 2001.
Similarly, tourism GDP growth has averaged 2.7 percent per annum over the five years,
compared to average GDP growth for Taranaki of 1.7 percent per annum. The hospitality
industry in particular, achieved 4.6 percent per annum GDP growth since 2001.
The number of businesses engaged primarily in tourism-linked activity has grown at 2.8
percent per annum over the five years, the same rate as overall business numbers in the
region. Again, most growth has been in the hospitality industry.
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5 Industry
Projections
Economic development is a long-term exercise. Changes in business and consumer
behaviour evolve over lengthy periods of time. Similarly, changes in inter-industry, regional
and global relationships have gradual impacts on the characteristics of a regional economy.
In addition, changes in the policy environment – whether favourable or otherwise – can have
further effects on the long-term composition of business activity in a region.
Within this context, BERL presents a scenario based on the assumption that economic
development in Taranaki is likely to be similar in the future to what it has been in the recent
past, compared with national economic development trends and global demand (see
appendix – section 6.2). Some modifications to the region’s recent relative economic
performance have been included where we believe recent development patterns are unlikely
to continue. These modifications are discussed in greater detail in the Appendices.
5.1 Employment
projections
Table 5.1 presents a forecast of employment growth in Taranaki to 2011, 2016 and 2026.
Table 5.1 Forecast employment growth in Taranaki
Industry
2006
2011
2016
2026
2006 to
2011
2011 to
2016
2016 to
2026
2006 to
2026
Agriculture
7,307
7,095
7,071
7,267
-0.6
-0.1
0.3
0.0
Forestry
119
126
136
167
1.0
1.6
2.0
1.7
Fishing
34
37
40
51
1.3
1.7
2.5
2.0
Mining (O&G)
817
1,284
1,769
3,357
9.5
6.6
6.6
7.3
Food processing
3,785
3,575
3,555
3,787
-1.1
-0.1
0.6
0.0
Engineering
2,753
3,387
4,321
7,142
4.2
5.0
5.2
4.9
Other manufacturing
1,794
2,130
2,742
5,056
3.5
5.2
6.3
5.3
Utilities
237
236
243
261
-0.1
0.6
0.7
0.5
Construction
3,680
4,883
5,229
4,875
5.8
1.4
-0.7
1.4
Wholesale & retail trade
6,803
7,362
7,933
9,091
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.5
Hospitality
1,757
1,953
2,217
3,156
2.1
2.6
3.6
3.0
Transport & storage
1,414
1,629
1,903
2,664
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.2
Communications
402
423
444
511
1.0
1.0
1.4
1.2
Business, finance & property svs
5,253
5,965
6,793
8,868
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
Government administration
877
950
1,033
1,218
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
Education
2,518
2,812
3,140
3,919
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
Health & community svs
3,664
3,461
3,282
3,030
-1.1
-1.1
-0.8
-0.9
Cultural & recreational svs
731
780
836
975
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.4
Personal svs
1,275
1,359
1,438
1,609
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.2
Taranaki
45,221
49,445
54,126
67,004
1.8
1.8
2.2
2.0
New Zealand
1,809,041
2,004,774
2,196,086
2,625,947
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.9
source:BERL Regional Database, CGE Model, Statistics NZ
Employment Number FTEs
%pa change
Actual
Forecast
Regional employment growth is expected to average around 2.0 percent per annum over the
next 20 years. This would take employment from its 2006 level of 45,200 FTEs to 49,400
FTEs in 2011, 54,100 FTEs in 2016, and 67,000 FTEs in 2026. Growth in employment is
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Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026
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expected to be above the 1.9 percent per annum experienced nationally over the same
period.
The most employment growth is expected to occur in mining (almost exclusively oil and gas-
related). Over the 20 years, employment in the industry is expected to quadruple, to around
3,360 FTEs. This assumes rapid growth over the next few years with the current projects
under development, with slower (but still substantial) growth from 2011 through to 2026.
Over the period to 2011, strong growth is also expected in construction (5.8 percent per
annum), engineering (4.2 percent per annum), other manufacturing (3.5 percent per annum)
and transport and storage (2.9 percent per annum). Meanwhile employment in agriculture,
food processing, health and community services and utilities is likely to fall by a total of
around 600 FTEs over the five-year period.
Between 2011 and 2016, oil and gas is likely to be the leader in employment growth again.
However, other industries such as other manufacturing, at 5.2 percent per annum,
engineering, at 5.0 percent per annum, transport and storage, at 3.2 percent per annum, and
hospitality, at 2.6 percent per annum, will also experience accelerated growth. Declines in
agriculture and food processing employment will slow.
From 2016 to 2026, employment is expected to grow faster than in New Zealand as a whole.
Other manufacturing employment is expected to surge 6.3 percent per annum, with
engineering employment growing 5.2 percent per annum. Hospitality and transport and
storage will also see growth of over 3.0 percent per annum. Meanwhile, both food
processing and agriculture employment growth will return to positive territory.
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5.2 GDP
projections
Table 5.2 presents a forecast of GDP growth in Taranaki to 2011, 2016 and 2026.
Table 5.2 Forecast GDP growth in Taranaki
Industry
2006
2011
2016
2026
2006 to
2011
2011 to
2016
2016 to
2026
2006 to
2026
Agriculture
415
463
521
654
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.3
Forestry
30
37
45
67
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.0
Fishing
3
3
4
6
4.2
4.2
4.5
4.4
Mining (O&G)
741
1,269
1,865
4,144
11.4
8.0
8.3
9.0
Food processing
432
438
466
561
0.3
1.3
1.9
1.3
Engineering
240
317
433
808
5.7
6.4
6.4
6.3
Other manufacturing
171
218
300
625
5.0
6.6
7.6
6.7
Utilities
115
128
142
175
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
Construction
207
254
293
343
4.2
2.9
1.6
2.6
Wholesale & retail trade
459
527
598
755
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.5
Hospitality
55
64
76
120
3.1
3.6
4.6
4.0
Transport & storage
143
176
217
341
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.4
Communications
128
153
179
242
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.2
Business, finance & property svs
718
857
1,010
1,380
3.6
3.3
3.2
3.3
Government administration
103
118
133
169
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.5
Education
130
151
174
233
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
Health & community svs
201
198
195
194
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-0.2
Cultural & recreational svs
49
57
65
84
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.7
Personal svs
38
43
48
59
2.5
2.2
2.0
2.2
Taranaki
4,379
5,469
6,766
10,961
4.5
4.3
4.9
4.7
New Zealand
155,885
182,406
214,401
284,417
3.2
3.3
2.9
3.1
source:BERL Regional Database, CGE Model, Statistics NZ
Value Added or GDP ('06, $m)
%pa change
Actual
Forecast
The economy of the region is expected to undergo strong gains in GDP over the three
periods under consideration, with GDP growth of 4.7 percent per annum to 2026. This could
see GDP rise to $5.47 billion by 2011 from its 2006 level of $4.38 billion, and on to $6.77
billion by 2016 and $10.9 billion by 2026. This would grow the region’s share of national
GDP to 3.9 percent in 2026 from 2.8 percent in 2006.
One primary assumption driving this projection is that both employment and labour
productivity will surge in the oil and gas industry. This industry is characterised by
particularly high labour productivity (GDP per FTE) already, at $907,000 per FTE, compared
with $96,800 per FTE for the region as a whole. As a result, strong growth in this industry
would push up Taranaki’s average labour productivity very rapidly. This would produce the
strong GDP growth projected in our model.
The most startling consequence of such growth in the oil and gas industry is that it could well
account for 38 percent of all GDP in Taranaki by 2026, from its current level of 17 percent.
In the period from 2006 to 2011, strong employment growth coupled with above-average
labour productivity growth could see oil and gas GDP grow by 11.4 percent per annum,
adding almost $530 million in GDP. While this figure dominates gains in other industries,
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there are also likely to be significant increases in GDP in engineering (5.7 percent per
annum), other manufacturing (5.0 percent per annum), construction (4.2 percent per annum)
and transport and storage (4.2 percent per annum).
Between 2011 and 2016, GDP growth in oil and gas is expected to slow somewhat, but will
remain strong, at 8.0 percent per annum. Robust growth in other manufacturing and
engineering will continue.
The fastest overall regional growth is expected between 2016 and 2026. Oil and gas GDP is
expected to continue to rise dramatically, while other manufacturing will almost match oil and
gas growth in percentage terms, reaching 7.6 percent per annum. Engineering (6.5 percent
per annum), hospitality (4.6 percent per annum) and transport and storage (4.6 percent per
annum) are expected to grow rapidly as well.
According to the Tourism Research Council, total tourism visitor nights in the Taranaki region
are expected to rise at a rate of 1.6 percent per annum, to reach 2.59 million in 2013. The
share of total visits to the region accounted for by international visitors is expected to rise
from 31.3 percent to 35.5 percent. Total visitor expenditure is expected to rise at a faster 3.2
percent per annum, partly as a result of the increase in overseas visitors, who tend to spend
more per visit. By 2013, total tourism expenditure is expected to reach $300 million per year,
up from its current $241 million.
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5.3
Summary of projections
The oil and gas story is the most significant in this projection. The Taranaki region is
inextricably linked to the oil and gas industry, with the industry’s importance to employment
and GDP (especially) in the region expected to rise dramatically over the next 20 years. The
sector is forecast to make up almost 40 percent of the region’s GDP by 2026 from 17
percent in 2006. These effects will flow through to engineering, which exhibits growth of 6.3
percent per annum over the forecast period.
Regional employment growth is expected to lead national growth, especially over the ten
years from 2016 to 2026. Moreover, regional GDP growth is expected to be significantly
higher than national, driven by the oil and gas sector as well as growth in other high
productivity sectors such as manufacturing.
Almost all industries are likely to experience gains in employment over the next 20 years.
GDP increases will be even more solid across the board, as even industries with slow
employment growth improve labour productivity. For example, agriculture is likely to see
GDP rise by 2.3 percent per annum despite flat employment growth. Health and community
services is the only industry likely to see a decline, and a relatively small one at that, falling
0.2 percent per annum. In other industries, GDP growth rates are expected to vary between
1.3 percent per annum for food processing and 9.0 percent per annum in oil and gas out to
2026.
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6 Appendices
6.1
Multiplier analysis method
This multiplier analysis uses multipliers derived from inter-industry input-output tables for the
Taranaki region. The Taranaki region input-output tables have been derived from the
national input-output tables and other data by Butcher Partners, Canterbury - a recognised
source for regional input-output tables and multipliers.
6
Multipliers allowed us to identify the direct, indirect and induced effects in terms of Full Time
Equivalent (FTE) employment.
Employment Impact multipliers
Employment impact multipliers determine the number of FTE roles that are created for every
$1 million spent in an industry for one year. It provides a measure of total labour demand
associated with Gross Output.
An FTE is the percentage of time an employee works represented as a decimal. A full-time
position is 1.00; a part-time position is 0.50.
Direct, indirect and induced effects
The underlying logic of multiplier analysis is relatively straightforward. An initial expenditure
(direct effect) in an industry creates flows of expenditures that are magnified, or “multiplied”,
as they flow on to the wider economy. This occurs in two ways:
•
The industry purchases materials and services from supplier firms, who in turn make
further purchases from their suppliers. This generates an indirect effect.
•
Persons employed in the direct development and in firms supplying services earn
income (mostly from wages and salaries, but also from profits) which, after tax is
deducted, is then spent on consumption. There is also an allowance for some savings.
These are the induced effects.
6
For a discussion on regional input output tables and the validity and reliability of the Butcher input output tables
see Statistics New Zealand (2003) Regional Input Output Study.
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Hence, for any amount spent in an area (direct effect), the actual output, and therefore
employment, generated from that spend is greater once the flow on activity generated
(indirect and induced effects) is taken into account.
Leakages
Generally the more developed, or self sufficient, an industry in a region is, the higher the
multiplier effects. Conversely, the more reliant an industry is on supply inputs from outside
the region, the lower the multipliers. These outside factors can be referred to as “leakages”.
To put this another way, if a house was purchased in The Taranaki region, and all the
materials and labour were sourced in The Taranaki region, and all the materials and labour
that went into making the housing materials were made in The Taranaki region and so forth,
and then the labour spent their wages or salaries in The Taranaki region, again on goods or
services produced solely in The Taranaki region, then all the multiplier effects would be
captured by The Taranaki region. Where inputs or outputs come from outside The Taranaki
region, leakages are said to exist, and the multiplier effect is reduced.
Limitations of multiplier analysis
Partial equilibrium analysis
Multiplier analysis is only a “partial equilibrium” analysis, assessing the direct and indirect
effects of the development being considered, without analysing the effects of the resources
used on the wider national and regional economy.
In particular, it assumes that the supply of capital, productive inputs and labour can expand
to meet the additional demand called forth by the initial injection and the flow on multiplier
effects, without leading to resource constraints in other industries. These constraints would
lead to price rises and resulting changes in overall patterns of production between industries.
To assess inter-industry impacts in full would require economic modelling within a “general
equilibrium” framework. Applying such models becomes more relevant where the particular
development is considered significant within the overall economy.
Regions and boundaries
The smaller or less defined a region and its boundaries, the less accurate the multiplier
analysis will be. Similarly, the easier it is to move across boundaries, the less accurate the
analysis will be. For example, at the national level, the multipliers will be very accurate as it
is easy to determine the inputs and outputs crossing through the New Zealand borders.
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Similarly, it would also be more accurate to determine a north island/south island split. As
smaller regions without obvious geographic boundaries are selected, a higher level of
assumptions needs to be made and the multipliers become less accurate. For example, an
individual could work in the Auckland region but live in the Waikato region and spend a large
proportion of his/her recreation money in the Bay of Plenty region.
For any regional analysis the level of accuracy will have to be accepted. As a rule of thumb,
the larger and more defined the region, the more accurate the analysis will be.
6.2
BERL projections method
6.2.1 National
projections
This section summarises the main assumptions and projection results used in this report.
The projections are based on the economic environment in 2006, and assume that the
environment will develop out to 2011, 2016 and 2026 in a similar way to the recent past.
That is, the projections reflect the recent past and do not anticipate that any major
departures from the current environment will have a substantial impact over the projected
horizons.
Table 6.1 summarises FTE employment, GDP, projected employment, and GDP growth from
2006 out to the 2011, 2016 and 2026 horizons. The national economy is projected to
continue expanding, growing by 3.2 percent per annum between 2006 and 2011, before
drifting down to 3.0 percent per annum growth to 2016 and 2.9 percent per annum to 2026.
These projections capture the effects of an expansion in New Zealand’s capital stock,
population growth and an increasing labour supply.
Table 6.1 National employment and GDP projections
Actual
New Zealand
2006
2011
2016
2026
2006 to
2011
2011 to
2016
2016 to
2026
2006 to
2026
Employment (FTEs)
1,809,041
2,004,774
2,196,086
2,625,947
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.9
Value Added or GDP ('06 $m)
156,088
182,406
211,556
280,372
3.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
source:BERL Regional Database, CGE Model, Statistics NZ
Forecast
%pa change
The expansions are driven by growth in the consumption, investment and export
components of output. Nominal consumption is projected to climb from a 2006 base of 94.3
percent of disposable income to 97.1 percent in 2011, where it plateaus out to 2016 before
falling back to 94.3 percent in 2026. This implicitly assumes that policies such as Kiwi Saver
will not have any net impacts on consumption over the timeframe, as increased saving may
be offset by lower taxes.
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Real investment climbs from 23.9 percent of real GDP to 25.2 percent in 2011 and 25.4
percent in 2016. The increase over the next ten years is driven by a substantial investment
programme by the government in transport infrastructure and construction. As the initial
impact of the programme flows through, real investment is projected to ease to 21.4 percent
by 2026.
Export volume and price growth are expected to combine to drive up export receipts by 5.3
percent per annum to 2011, 5.8 percent per annum between 2011 and 2016 and 6.0 percent
per annum between 2016 and 2026. The higher growth rate out to 2026 reflects New
Zealand’s increasing global competitiveness as the skilled labour force and capital base
expand.
Below the macroeconomic level, growth in export volumes for particular industries varies.
For example, volumes within primary industries such as wool producers, and among
manufacturers, are projected to expand at a modest rate of 1.2 percent per annum to 2011.
In contrast, tourism-related exporting industries are projected to expand by 4.5 percent per
annum. Similar variation can be expected to 2016 and 2026.
Overall, employment levels will track the growth projected for the economy and for the
particular industries influenced by this expansion. FTE employment is projected to expand
by approximately 192,000 over the five-year period between 2006 and 2011, which equates
to an average annual rate of 38,500 or 2.1 percent per annum. Employment in primary
industries, such as agriculture, is expected to remain static or decline. Growth in
government investment and exports will drive ahead employment in fabricated
manufacturing, building and government, education and health industries.
Over the 20-year period, employment growth is expected to average 1.9 percent per annum
growth. The range across industries will vary from 0.6 percent per annum in the primary
sector, to 2.2 percent per annum in manufacturing and 1.9 percent per annum in services.
6.2.2 Regional
Projections
Population growth in Taranaki has been below the national average over the last five years,
but is assumed to grow in line with Statistic New Zealand’s high growth projection out to
2026.
By and large, the projections assume that regional industries will maintain the same growth
rates relative to national growth as seen over the past five years. Where this is unlikely to be
the case, further assumptions have been introduced.
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•
Oil and gas performance is particularly hard to forecast, as it depends on the level of
exploration and success thereof. The industry is likely to experience substantial growth
over the next few years, but there is little certainty that this growth will continue unabated
to 2026. We have therefore slowed expected growth rates, particularly between 2011
and 2026.
•
Printing, publishing and recorded media; and machinery and equipment manufacturing
in Taranaki have both seen growth substantially higher than the national average in
recent years. This is assumed to slow somewhat.
•
Rubber and plastic products manufacturing; other manufacturing; electricity generation
and supply; water supply; water and rail transport; communications services; finance and
insurance; education; and hospitals, nursing homes, aged accommodation and other
community care are assumed to grow at the national rate. Some of these industries
have been growing faster than the national average in Taranaki, and others have been
growing at a slower pace in the recent past.
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6.3
Taranaki business units
Business units has not been included in the main report. However, it is likely to be of use for
policy analysis and has been added here for that purpose and for completeness.
Taranaki had 12,800 business units in 2006 across all sectors, or around 2.9 percent of the
national total.
Figure 6.1 shows the proportion of businesses within different industries in Taranaki.
Figure 6.1 Taranaki business units, 2006
Agricult ure
34.7%
Communications
0.8%
Educat ion
2.0%
Cult ural and
recreational
2.1%
Personal
3.1%
Forestry
1.4%
Fishing
0.1%
Const ruct ion
7.5%
Hospitalit y
2.3%
Government admin
0.4%
Bus, f inance & propert y
23.5%
Transport & st orage
2.0%
Ot her mf g
1.8%
Food processing
0.4%
Health & communit y
3.5%
Ut ilities
0.2%
Engineering
2.2%
Wholeale & retail
11.5%
M ining (O&G)
0.4%
Business units
BERL Regional Database, Statistics NZ
Agriculture accounted for 35 percent of all businesses. Business, finance and property
services provided one-quarter of businesses, while wholesale and retail trade had 11
percent.
The three manufacturing industries – food processing, engineering and other manufacturing,
together represented just 4.4 percent of Taranaki businesses. This indicates that the
average business size within manufacturing is relatively large, as the sector accounts for 18
percent of regional employment.
59
Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026
Venture Taranaki
November 2007
Figure 6.2 compares the proportion of businesses accounted for by each industry in
Taranaki with the national situation.
Figure 6.2 Comparison of business units by industry, 2006
BERL Regional Databse; Statistics NZ
0.1
0.4
1.8
0.8
3.5
2.1
3.1
1.3
0.1
2.2
0.1
10.2
14.8
3.0
31.9
1.9
2.0
0.4
23.5
2.0
2.3
11.5
7.5
0.2
2.2
0.4
1.4
34.7
3.7
2.9
3.8
0.4
0.8
3.1
2.7
0.5
0.4
16.1
0
9
18
27
36
Ag
ric
ul
tu
re
Fo
re
st
ry
Fi
sh
in
g
M
in
in
g
(O
&G
)
Fo
od
p
ro
ce
ss
in
g
En
gi
ne
er
in
g
O
th
er
m
fg
U
til
iti
es
C
on
st
ru
ct
io
n
W
ho
le
al
e
&
re
ta
il
H
os
pit
al
ity
Tr
an
sp
or
t &
s
to
ra
ge
C
om
m
un
ic
at
io
ns
Bu
s,
fi
na
nc
e
&
pr
op
er
ty
G
ov
er
nm
en
t a
dm
in
Ed
uc
at
io
n
H
ea
lth
&
c
om
m
un
ity
C
ul
tu
ra
l a
nd
re
cr
ea
tio
na
l
Pe
rs
on
al
Sector
B
u
s
ine
s
s
uni
ts
(% of tota
l)
Taranaki
New Zealand
The relative importance of agriculture is clear in that it accounted for double the proportion of
businesses in Taranaki as in New Zealand as a whole. On the other hand, the business,
finance and property services industry makes up a far larger portion of all businesses
nationally than in Taranaki.
Table 6.2 summarizes the change in the number of business units within each industry in
Taranaki over the last five years. It also shows overall New Zealand business units growth.
60
Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026
Venture Taranaki
November 2007
Table 6.2 Taranaki business units, 2001 – 2006
Industry
2001
2004
2005
2006
2005
2006
2001 to
2006
Agriculture
4,282
4,552
4,505
4,438
-1.0
-1.5
0.7
Forestry
192
191
181
174
-5.2
-3.9
-1.9
Fishing
22
23
23
19
0.0
-17.4
-2.9
Mining (O&G)
37
40
47
57
17.5
21.3
9.0
Food processing
41
40
42
50
5.0
19.0
4.0
Engineering
267
273
266
282
-2.6
6.0
1.1
Other manufacturing
231
236
244
236
3.4
-3.3
0.4
Utilities
25
24
21
20
-12.5
-4.8
-4.4
Construction
704
799
866
963
8.4
11.2
6.5
Wholesale & retail trade
1,414
1,444
1,457
1,465
0.9
0.5
0.7
Hospitality
242
286
296
297
3.5
0.3
4.2
Transport & storage
238
254
259
262
2.0
1.2
1.9
Communications
96
102
109
108
6.9
-0.9
2.4
Business, finance & property svs
2,081
2,799
2,861
3,011
2.2
5.2
7.7
Government administration
51
53
53
49
0.0
-7.5
-0.8
Education
254
255
254
256
-0.4
0.8
0.2
Health & community svs
404
420
427
442
1.7
3.5
1.8
Cultural & recreational svs
247
261
270
267
3.4
-1.1
1.6
Personal svs
332
372
378
397
1.6
5.0
3.6
Taranaki
11,160
12,424
12,559
12,793
1.1
1.9
2.8
New Zealand
368,080
421,468
432,613
443,369
2.6
2.5
3.8
Business Units (number)
source:BERL Regional Database, Statistics NZ
%pa change
The biggest growth in percentage terms in the number of business units over the five years
occurred in mining (9.0 percent per annum, almost exclusively in oil and gas); business,
finance and property services (7.7 percent per annum), construction (6.5 percent per
annum); hospitality (4.2 percent per annum); and food processing (4.0 percent per annum).
Only four of the 19 industries have seen the number of business units fall. These included
utilities (-4.4 percent per annum), fishing (-2.9 percent per annum), forestry (-1.9 percent per
annum); and government administration (-0.8 percent per annum).
Figure 6.3 compares business unit growth rates for Taranaki and New Zealand over the
period from 2001 to 2006.
61
Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026
Venture Taranaki
November 2007
Figure 6.3 Business units trend, 2001 – 2006
100
105
110
115
120
125
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
B
u
si
n
ess
u
n
it
s
i
n
d
ex
2001=
100
Taranaki
New Zealand
Source: BERL
Overall, business unit growth has been quite similar in New Zealand and Taranaki over the
last five years.
Figure 6.4 compares annual growth rates for the number of business units in each industry in
Taranaki and New Zealand for the period from 2001 to 2006.
62
Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026
Venture Taranaki
November 2007
Figure 6.4 Comparison of business units growth by industry, 2001 – 2006
BERL Regional Databse; Statistics NZ
-1.9
9.0
-4.4
6.5
2.4
7.7
-0.8
1.4
-3.2
1.8
0.8
1.7
2.6
5.5
2.9
0.5
3.4
4.2
3.6
1.6
1.8
0.2
1.9
4.2
0.7
0.4
1.1
4.0
-2.9
0.7
0.4
3.9
2.1
7.1
0.3
4.8
2.9
3.7
-5
0
5
10
Ag
ric
ul
tu
re
Fo
re
st
ry
Fis
hi
ng
M
in
in
g
(O
&G
)
Fo
od
p
ro
ce
ss
in
g
En
gi
ne
er
in
g
O
th
er
m
fg
U
til
iti
es
C
on
st
ru
ct
io
n
W
ho
le
al
e
&
re
ta
il
H
os
pit
al
ity
Tr
an
sp
or
t &
s
to
ra
ge
C
om
m
un
ic
at
io
ns
Bu
s,
fi
na
nc
e
&
pr
op
er
ty
G
ov
er
nm
en
t a
dm
in
Ed
uc
at
io
n
H
ea
lth
&
c
om
m
un
ity
C
ul
tu
ra
l a
nd
re
cr
ea
tio
na
l
Pe
rs
on
al
Sector
B
u
s
ine
s
s
uni
ts
gr
ow
th
2
0
0
1
-2
0
0
6
(%pa
)
Taranaki
New Zealand
63
Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026
Venture Taranaki
November 2007
Growth in the number of business units exceeded the national average in mining;
construction; business, finance and property services; food processing; communications;
and agriculture.
The number of business units fell most in utilities, fishing and forestry, while there was also a
small decline in the number of government administration business units.
All work is done, and services rendered at the request of, and for the purposes of the client only. Neither BERL nor
any of its employees accepts any responsibility on any grounds whatsoever, including negligence, to any other
person.
While every effort is made by BERL to ensure that the information, opinions and forecasts provided to the client are
accurate and reliable, BERL shall not be liable for any adverse consequences of the client’s decisions made in
reliance of any report provided by BERL, nor shall BERL be held to have given or implied any warranty as to
whether any report provided by BERL will assist in the performance of the client’s function
64
Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026
Venture Taranaki
September 2007
BERL reports are printed on 100 percent recycled paper using soy ink.
Document Outline -
-
-
- 1 Executive Summary
- Employment
- GDP
- Key sectors
- Projections
- Taranaki Industry Projections 2006 – 2026
-
-
- List of Figures
- 2 Introduction
- 3 Taranaki Industry Structure and Performance
- 3.1 Taranaki population
- 3.2 Taranaki employment
- 3.3 Taranaki GDP
- 3.4 Summary of Taranaki Industry structure and performance
- 4 Taranaki’s Key Sectors
- 4.1 Approach
- 4.2 Oil and gas sector
- 4.3 Dairy sector
- 4.4 Meat processing sector
- 4.5 Engineering sector
- 4.6 Other manufacturing sector
- 4.7 Education sector
- 4.8 Public sector
- 4.9 Tourism
- 5 Industry Projections
- 5.1 Employment projections
- 5.2 GDP projections
- 5.3 Summary of projections
- 6 Appendices
- 6.1 Multiplier analysis method
- Employment Impact multipliers
- Direct, indirect and induced effects
- Leakages
- Limitations of multiplier analysis
- Partial equilibrium analysis
- Regions and boundaries
- 6.2 BERL projections method
- 6.2.1 National projections
- 6.2.2 Regional Projections
- 6.3 Taranaki business units
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