Taranaki industry projections


Table 4.29 Tourism summary indicators, 2006



Yüklə 0,59 Mb.
Pdf görüntüsü
səhifə6/6
tarix14.04.2017
ölçüsü0,59 Mb.
#14185
1   2   3   4   5   6

Table 4.29 Tourism summary indicators, 2006 

Tourism

FTEs

%

GDP (06$m)

%

Business 

units

%

Tourism-characteristic industries

1,170

2.6%

73.7


1.7%

242


1.9%

Tourism-related industries

500

1.1%

24.5


0.6%

110


0.9%

All non-tourism-related industries

777

1.7%

81.0


1.9%

229


1.8%

Taranaki

2,447

5.4%

179.2

4.1%

580

4.5%

New Zealand

115,694

6.4%

8,295

5.3%

23,566

5.3%

source:BERL Regional Database, Tourism Satellite Account

 

Tourism accounts for approximately 5.4 percent of employment in Taranaki, or 2,450 FTEs, 



slightly below the national average of 6.4 percent. 

Around 4.1 percent of regional GDP, or $179 million, is directly contributed by the tourism 

sector, compared to 5.3 percent at a national level. 

Around 580 business units, or 4.5 percent of the regional total, are directly related to the 

tourism sector.  This is a similar proportion to the 5.3 percent contribution of the tourism 

sector seen nationally. 

Figure 4.1 shows what portions of total tourism employment, GDP and businesses are 

contributed by each of tourism-characteristic, tourism-related and all other industries. 

 

46 


Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Figure 4.1  Contributions to employment, GDP and business units 

FTE Share

31.8%


47.8%

20.4%


GDP Share

45.2%


13.7%

41.1%


Business Units Share

18.9%


39.5%

41.6%


Tourism-characteristic industries

Tourism-related industries

All non-tourism-related industries

source:BERL Regional Database, Statistics NZ

 

Tourism-characteristic industries provide almost half of all direct tourism employment in the 



region, with one-fifth provided by tourism-related industries and one-third by other industries. 

Interestingly, non-tourism-related industries provide the largest share of regional tourism 

GDP, at 45 percent, and almost as many business units as tourism-characteristic industries, 

at 40 percent. 

Table 4.30 presents the recent performance of the tourism sector in Taranaki and New 

Zealand. 



Table 4.30 Recent performance of tourism sector, 2001 – 2006 

Indicator

2001

2004

2005

2006

2005

2006

2001 to 

2006

Employment (FTEs)

Taranaki


2,128

2,322


2,401

2,447


3.4

1.9

2.8

New Zealand

97,587

108,679


110,685

115,694


1.8

4.5

3.5

Value added or GDP ('06, $m)

Taranaki


157

173


178

179


3.0

0.8

2.7

New Zealand

6,894

7,792


8,140

8,295


4.5

1.9

3.8

Business units

Taranaki


505

562


571

580


1.7

1.6

2.8

New Zealand

19,200

22,302


23,092

23,566


3.5

2.1

4.2

source:BERL Regional Database, Tourism Satellite Account

%pa change

 

While growth in tourism in Taranaki has been lower than the New Zealand average across 



all three indicators, its increasing importance is clear from the fact that tourism growth has 

exceeded Taranaki growth as a whole. 

Growth in tourism employment in Taranaki over the last five years was higher than for the 

regional economy overall, at 2.8 percent per annum compared with 2.4 percent per annum.  

While this was below national tourism employment growth (3.5 percent per annum). 

 

47 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Employment growth within the tourism-characteristic industries has been very strong, 

particularly in hospitality, which has achieved 5.2 percent per annum since 2001. 

Similarly, tourism GDP growth has averaged 2.7 percent per annum over the five years, 

compared to average GDP growth for Taranaki of 1.7 percent per annum.  The hospitality 

industry in particular, achieved 4.6 percent per annum GDP growth since 2001. 

The number of businesses engaged primarily in tourism-linked activity has grown at 2.8 

percent per annum over the five years, the same rate as overall business numbers in the 

region.  Again, most growth has been in the hospitality industry. 

 

48 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

5 Industry 

Projections 

Economic development is a long-term exercise.  Changes in business and consumer 

behaviour evolve over lengthy periods of time.  Similarly, changes in inter-industry, regional 

and global relationships have gradual impacts on the characteristics of a regional economy.  

In addition, changes in the policy environment – whether favourable or otherwise – can have 

further effects on the long-term composition of business activity in a region. 

Within this context, BERL presents a scenario based on the assumption that economic 

development in Taranaki is likely to be similar in the future to what it has been in the recent 

past, compared with national economic development trends and global demand (see 

appendix – section 6.2).  Some modifications to the region’s recent relative economic 

performance have been included where we believe recent development patterns are unlikely 

to continue.  These modifications are discussed in greater detail in the Appendices. 



5.1 Employment 

projections 

Table 5.1 presents a forecast of employment growth in Taranaki to 2011, 2016 and 2026. 



Table 5.1  Forecast employment growth in Taranaki 

Industry

2006

2011

2016

2026

2006 to 

2011

2011 to 

2016

2016 to 

2026

2006 to 

2026

Agriculture

7,307

7,095

7,071

7,267

-0.6

-0.1

0.3

0.0

Forestry


119

126

136

167

1.0

1.6

2.0

1.7

Fishing


34

37

40

51

1.3

1.7

2.5

2.0

Mining (O&G)

817

1,284

1,769

3,357

9.5

6.6

6.6

7.3

Food processing

3,785

3,575

3,555

3,787

-1.1

-0.1

0.6

0.0

Engineering

2,753

3,387

4,321

7,142

4.2

5.0

5.2

4.9

Other manufacturing

1,794

2,130

2,742

5,056

3.5

5.2

6.3

5.3

Utilities

237

236

243

261

-0.1

0.6

0.7

0.5

Construction

3,680

4,883

5,229

4,875

5.8

1.4

-0.7

1.4

Wholesale & retail trade

6,803

7,362

7,933

9,091

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.5

Hospitality

1,757

1,953

2,217

3,156

2.1

2.6

3.6

3.0

Transport & storage

1,414

1,629

1,903

2,664

2.9

3.2

3.4

3.2

Communications

402

423

444

511

1.0

1.0

1.4

1.2

Business, finance & property svs

5,253

5,965

6,793

8,868

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

Government administration

877

950

1,033

1,218

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

Education

2,518

2,812

3,140

3,919

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

Health & community svs

3,664

3,461

3,282

3,030

-1.1

-1.1

-0.8

-0.9

Cultural & recreational svs

731

780

836

975

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.4

Personal svs

1,275

1,359

1,438

1,609

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.2

Taranaki

45,221

49,445

54,126

67,004

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.0

New Zealand

1,809,041

2,004,774

2,196,086

2,625,947

2.1

1.8

1.8

1.9

source:BERL Regional Database, CGE Model, Statistics NZ

Employment Number FTEs

%pa change

Actual

Forecast

 

Regional employment growth is expected to average around 2.0 percent per annum over the 



next 20 years.  This would take employment from its 2006 level of 45,200 FTEs to 49,400 

FTEs in 2011, 54,100 FTEs in 2016, and 67,000 FTEs in 2026.  Growth in employment is 

 

49 


Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

expected to be above the 1.9 percent per annum experienced nationally over the same 

period. 

The most employment growth is expected to occur in mining (almost exclusively oil and gas-

related).  Over the 20 years, employment in the industry is expected to quadruple, to around 

3,360 FTEs.  This assumes rapid growth over the next few years with the current projects 

under development, with slower (but still substantial) growth from 2011 through to 2026. 

Over the period to 2011, strong growth is also expected in construction (5.8 percent per 

annum), engineering (4.2 percent per annum), other manufacturing (3.5 percent per annum) 

and transport and storage (2.9 percent per annum).  Meanwhile employment in agriculture, 

food processing, health and community services and utilities is likely to fall by a total of 

around 600 FTEs over the five-year period. 

Between 2011 and 2016, oil and gas is likely to be the leader in employment growth again.  

However, other industries such as other manufacturing, at 5.2 percent per annum, 

engineering, at 5.0 percent per annum, transport and storage, at 3.2 percent per annum, and 

hospitality, at 2.6 percent per annum, will also experience accelerated growth.  Declines in 

agriculture and food processing employment will slow. 

From 2016 to 2026, employment is expected to grow faster than in New Zealand as a whole.  

Other manufacturing employment is expected to surge 6.3 percent per annum, with 

engineering employment growing 5.2 percent per annum.  Hospitality and transport and 

storage will also see growth of over 3.0 percent per annum.  Meanwhile, both food 

processing and agriculture employment growth will return to positive territory. 

 

50 


Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

5.2 GDP 

projections 

Table 5.2 presents a forecast of GDP growth in Taranaki to 2011, 2016 and 2026. 



Table 5.2  Forecast GDP growth in Taranaki 

Industry

2006

2011

2016

2026

2006 to 

2011

2011 to 

2016

2016 to 

2026

2006 to 

2026

Agriculture

415

463

521

654

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.3

Forestry


30

37

45

67

3.9

4.1

4.1

4.0

Fishing


3

3

4

6

4.2

4.2

4.5

4.4

Mining (O&G)

741

1,269

1,865

4,144

11.4

8.0

8.3

9.0

Food processing

432

438

466

561

0.3

1.3

1.9

1.3

Engineering

240

317

433

808

5.7

6.4

6.4

6.3

Other manufacturing

171

218

300

625

5.0

6.6

7.6

6.7

Utilities

115

128

142


175

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

Construction

207

254

293


343

4.2

2.9

1.6

2.6

Wholesale & retail trade

459

527

598

755

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.5

Hospitality

55

64

76

120

3.1

3.6

4.6

4.0

Transport & storage

143

176

217

341

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.4

Communications

128

153

179

242

3.5

3.2

3.1

3.2

Business, finance & property svs

718

857

1,010

1,380

3.6

3.3

3.2

3.3

Government administration

103

118

133

169

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.5

Education

130

151

174

233

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

Health & community svs

201

198

195

194

-0.3

-0.3

-0.1

-0.2

Cultural & recreational svs

49

57

65

84

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

Personal svs

38

43

48

59

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.2

Taranaki

4,379

5,469

6,766

10,961

4.5

4.3

4.9

4.7

New Zealand

155,885

182,406

214,401

284,417

3.2

3.3

2.9

3.1

source:BERL Regional Database, CGE Model, Statistics NZ

Value Added or GDP ('06, $m)

%pa change

Actual

Forecast

 

The economy of the region is expected to undergo strong gains in GDP over the three 



periods under consideration, with GDP growth of 4.7 percent per annum to 2026.  This could 

see GDP rise to $5.47 billion by 2011 from its 2006 level of $4.38 billion, and on to $6.77 

billion by 2016 and $10.9 billion by 2026.  This would grow the region’s share of national 

GDP to 3.9 percent in 2026 from 2.8 percent in 2006. 

One primary assumption driving this projection is that both employment and labour 

productivity will surge in the oil and gas industry.  This industry is characterised by 

particularly high labour productivity (GDP per FTE) already, at $907,000 per FTE, compared 

with $96,800 per FTE for the region as a whole.  As a result, strong growth in this industry 

would push up Taranaki’s average labour productivity very rapidly.  This would produce the 

strong GDP growth projected in our model. 

The most startling consequence of such growth in the oil and gas industry is that it could well 

account for 38 percent of all GDP in Taranaki by 2026, from its current level of 17 percent. 

In the period from 2006 to 2011, strong employment growth coupled with above-average 

labour productivity growth could see oil and gas GDP grow by 11.4 percent per annum, 

adding almost $530 million in GDP.  While this figure dominates gains in other industries, 

 

51 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

there are also likely to be significant increases in GDP in engineering (5.7 percent per 

annum), other manufacturing (5.0 percent per annum), construction (4.2 percent per annum) 

and transport and storage (4.2 percent per annum). 

Between 2011 and 2016, GDP growth in oil and gas is expected to slow somewhat, but will 

remain strong, at 8.0 percent per annum.  Robust growth in other manufacturing and 

engineering will continue. 

The fastest overall regional growth is expected between 2016 and 2026.  Oil and gas GDP is 

expected to continue to rise dramatically, while other manufacturing will almost match oil and 

gas growth in percentage terms, reaching 7.6 percent per annum.  Engineering (6.5 percent 

per annum), hospitality (4.6 percent per annum) and transport and storage (4.6 percent per 

annum) are expected to grow rapidly as well. 

According to the Tourism Research Council, total tourism visitor nights in the Taranaki region 

are expected to rise at a rate of 1.6 percent per annum, to reach 2.59 million in 2013.  The 

share of total visits to the region accounted for by international visitors is expected to rise 

from 31.3 percent to 35.5 percent.  Total visitor expenditure is expected to rise at a faster 3.2 

percent per annum, partly as a result of the increase in overseas visitors, who tend to spend 

more per visit.  By 2013, total tourism expenditure is expected to reach $300 million per year, 

up from its current $241 million. 

 

52 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

5.3 

Summary of projections 

The oil and gas story is the most significant in this projection.  The Taranaki region is 

inextricably linked to the oil and gas industry, with the industry’s importance to employment 

and GDP (especially) in the region expected to rise dramatically over the next 20 years.  The 

sector is forecast to make up almost 40 percent of the region’s GDP by 2026 from 17 

percent in 2006.  These effects will flow through to engineering, which exhibits growth of 6.3 

percent per annum over the forecast period. 

Regional employment growth is expected to lead national growth, especially over the ten 

years from 2016 to 2026.  Moreover, regional GDP growth is expected to be significantly 

higher than national, driven by the oil and gas sector as well as growth in other high 

productivity sectors such as manufacturing. 

Almost all industries are likely to experience gains in employment over the next 20 years.   

GDP increases will be even more solid across the board, as even industries with slow 

employment growth improve labour productivity.  For example, agriculture is likely to see 

GDP rise by 2.3 percent per annum despite flat employment growth.  Health and community 

services is the only industry likely to see a decline, and a relatively small one at that, falling 

0.2 percent per annum.  In other industries, GDP growth rates are expected to vary between 

1.3 percent per annum for food processing and 9.0 percent per annum in oil and gas out to 

2026. 

 

53 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

6 Appendices 

6.1 

Multiplier analysis method 

This multiplier analysis uses multipliers derived from inter-industry input-output tables for the 

Taranaki region.  The Taranaki region input-output tables have been derived from the 

national input-output tables and other data by Butcher Partners, Canterbury - a recognised 

source for regional input-output tables and multipliers.

6

Multipliers allowed us to identify the direct, indirect and induced effects in terms of Full Time 



Equivalent (FTE) employment. 

Employment Impact multipliers 

Employment impact multipliers determine the number of FTE roles that are created for every 

$1 million spent in an industry for one year.  It provides a measure of total labour demand 

associated with Gross Output. 

An FTE is the percentage of time an employee works represented as a decimal.  A full-time 

position is 1.00; a part-time position is 0.50. 

Direct, indirect and induced effects 

The underlying logic of multiplier analysis is relatively straightforward.  An initial expenditure 

(direct effect) in an industry creates flows of expenditures that are magnified, or “multiplied”, 

as they flow on to the wider economy.  This occurs in two ways: 

• 

The industry purchases materials and services from supplier firms, who in turn make 



further purchases from their suppliers.  This generates an indirect effect. 

• 

Persons employed in the direct development and in firms supplying services earn 



income (mostly from wages and salaries, but also from profits) which, after tax is 

deducted, is then spent on consumption.  There is also an allowance for some savings.  

These are the induced effects. 

                                                      

6

 For a discussion on regional input output tables and the validity and reliability of the Butcher input output tables 



see Statistics New Zealand (2003) Regional Input Output Study. 

 

54 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Hence, for any amount spent in an area (direct effect), the actual output, and therefore 

employment, generated from that spend is greater once the flow on activity generated 

(indirect and induced effects) is taken into account. 

Leakages 

Generally the more developed, or self sufficient, an industry in a region is, the higher the 

multiplier effects.  Conversely, the more reliant an industry is on supply inputs from outside 

the region, the lower the multipliers.  These outside factors can be referred to as “leakages”. 

To put this another way, if a house was purchased in The Taranaki region, and all the 

materials and labour were sourced in The Taranaki region, and all the materials and labour 

that went into making the housing materials were made in The Taranaki region and so forth, 

and then the labour spent their wages or salaries in The Taranaki region, again on goods or 

services produced solely in The Taranaki region, then all the multiplier effects would be 

captured by The Taranaki region.  Where inputs or outputs come from outside The Taranaki 

region, leakages are said to exist, and the multiplier effect is reduced. 

Limitations of multiplier analysis 



Partial equilibrium analysis 

Multiplier analysis is only a “partial equilibrium” analysis, assessing the direct and indirect 

effects of the development being considered, without analysing the effects of the resources 

used on the wider national and regional economy. 

In particular, it assumes that the supply of capital, productive inputs and labour can expand 

to meet the additional demand called forth by the initial injection and the flow on multiplier 

effects, without leading to resource constraints in other industries.  These constraints would 

lead to price rises and resulting changes in overall patterns of production between industries. 

To assess inter-industry impacts in full would require economic modelling within a “general 

equilibrium” framework.  Applying such models becomes more relevant where the particular 

development is considered significant within the overall economy. 

Regions and boundaries 

The smaller or less defined a region and its boundaries, the less accurate the multiplier 

analysis will be.  Similarly, the easier it is to move across boundaries, the less accurate the 

analysis will be.  For example, at the national level, the multipliers will be very accurate as it 

is easy to determine the inputs and outputs crossing through the New Zealand borders. 

 

55 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Similarly, it would also be more accurate to determine a north island/south island split.  As 

smaller regions without obvious geographic boundaries are selected, a higher level of 

assumptions needs to be made and the multipliers become less accurate.  For example, an 

individual could work in the Auckland region but live in the Waikato region and spend a large 

proportion of his/her recreation money in the Bay of Plenty region. 

For any regional analysis the level of accuracy will have to be accepted.  As a rule of thumb, 

the larger and more defined the region, the more accurate the analysis will be. 



6.2 

BERL projections method 

6.2.1 National 

projections 

This section summarises the main assumptions and projection results used in this report.  

The projections are based on the economic environment in 2006, and assume that the 

environment will develop out to 2011, 2016 and 2026 in a similar way to the recent past.  

That is, the projections reflect the recent past and do not anticipate that any major 

departures from the current environment will have a substantial impact over the projected 

horizons. 

Table 6.1 summarises FTE employment, GDP, projected employment, and GDP growth from 

2006 out to the 2011, 2016 and 2026 horizons.  The national economy is projected to 

continue expanding, growing by 3.2 percent per annum between 2006 and 2011, before 

drifting down to 3.0 percent per annum growth to 2016 and 2.9 percent per annum to 2026.  

These projections capture the effects of an expansion in New Zealand’s capital stock, 

population growth and an increasing labour supply. 

Table 6.1  National employment and GDP projections 

Actual

New Zealand

2006

2011

2016

2026

2006 to 

2011

2011 to 

2016

2016 to 

2026

2006 to 

2026

Employment (FTEs)

1,809,041

2,004,774

2,196,086

2,625,947

2.1

1.8

1.8

1.9

Value Added or GDP ('06 $m)

156,088

182,406

211,556

280,372

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.0

source:BERL Regional Database, CGE Model, Statistics NZ

Forecast

%pa change

 

The expansions are driven by growth in the consumption, investment and export 



components of output.  Nominal consumption is projected to climb from a 2006 base of 94.3 

percent of disposable income to 97.1 percent in 2011, where it plateaus out to 2016 before 

falling back to 94.3 percent in 2026.  This implicitly assumes that policies such as Kiwi Saver 

will not have any net impacts on consumption over the timeframe, as increased saving may 

be offset by lower taxes. 

 

56 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Real investment climbs from 23.9 percent of real GDP to 25.2 percent in 2011 and 25.4 

percent in 2016.  The increase over the next ten years is driven by a substantial investment 

programme by the government in transport infrastructure and construction.  As the initial 

impact of the programme flows through, real investment is projected to ease to 21.4 percent 

by 2026. 

Export volume and price growth are expected to combine to drive up export receipts by 5.3 

percent per annum to 2011, 5.8 percent per annum between 2011 and 2016 and 6.0 percent 

per annum between 2016 and 2026.  The higher growth rate out to 2026 reflects New 

Zealand’s increasing global competitiveness as the skilled labour force and capital base 

expand. 

Below the macroeconomic level, growth in export volumes for particular industries varies.  

For example, volumes within primary industries such as wool producers, and among 

manufacturers, are projected to expand at a modest rate of 1.2 percent per annum to 2011.  

In contrast, tourism-related exporting industries are projected to expand by 4.5 percent per 

annum.  Similar variation can be expected to 2016 and 2026. 

Overall, employment levels will track the growth projected for the economy and for the 

particular industries influenced by this expansion.  FTE employment is projected to expand 

by approximately 192,000 over the five-year period between 2006 and 2011, which equates 

to an average annual rate of 38,500 or 2.1 percent per annum.  Employment in primary 

industries, such as agriculture, is expected to remain static or decline.  Growth in 

government investment and exports will drive ahead employment in fabricated 

manufacturing, building and government, education and health industries. 

Over the 20-year period, employment growth is expected to average 1.9 percent per annum 

growth.  The range across industries will vary from 0.6 percent per annum in the primary 

sector, to 2.2 percent per annum in manufacturing and 1.9 percent per annum in services. 



6.2.2 Regional 

Projections 

Population growth in Taranaki has been below the national average over the last five years, 

but is assumed to grow in line with Statistic New Zealand’s high growth projection out to 

2026. 


By and large, the projections assume that regional industries will maintain the same growth 

rates relative to national growth as seen over the past five years.  Where this is unlikely to be 

the case, further assumptions have been introduced. 

 

57 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

• 

Oil and gas performance is particularly hard to forecast, as it depends on the level of 



exploration and success thereof.  The industry is likely to experience substantial growth 

over the next few years, but there is little certainty that this growth will continue unabated 

to 2026.  We have therefore slowed expected growth rates, particularly between 2011 

and 2026. 

• 

Printing, publishing and recorded media; and machinery and equipment manufacturing 



in Taranaki have both seen growth substantially higher than the national average in 

recent years.  This is assumed to slow somewhat. 

• 

Rubber and plastic products manufacturing; other manufacturing; electricity generation 



and supply; water supply; water and rail transport; communications services; finance and 

insurance; education; and hospitals, nursing homes, aged accommodation and other 

community care are assumed to grow at the national rate.  Some of these industries 

have been growing faster than the national average in Taranaki, and others have been 

growing at a slower pace in the recent past. 

 

58 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

6.3 

Taranaki business units 

Business units has not been included in the main report.  However, it is likely to be of use for 

policy analysis and has been added here for that purpose and for completeness. 

Taranaki had 12,800 business units in 2006 across all sectors, or around 2.9 percent of the 

national total. 

Figure 6.1 shows the proportion of businesses within different industries in Taranaki. 



Figure 6.1  Taranaki business units, 2006 

Agricult ure

34.7%

Communications



0.8%

Educat ion

2.0%

Cult ural and 



recreational

2.1%


Personal

3.1%


Forestry

1.4%


Fishing

0.1%


Const ruct ion

7.5%


Hospitalit y

2.3%


Government admin

0.4%


Bus, f inance & propert y

23.5%


Transport  & st orage

2.0%


Ot her mf g

1.8%


Food processing

0.4%


Health & communit y

3.5%


Ut ilities

0.2%


Engineering

2.2%


Wholeale & retail

11.5%


M ining (O&G)

0.4%


Business units

BERL Regional Database, Statistics NZ

 

Agriculture accounted for 35 percent of all businesses.  Business, finance and property 



services provided one-quarter of businesses, while wholesale and retail trade had 11 

percent. 

The three manufacturing industries – food processing, engineering and other manufacturing, 

together represented just 4.4 percent of Taranaki businesses.  This indicates that the 

average business size within manufacturing is relatively large, as the sector accounts for 18 

percent of regional employment. 

 

59 


Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Figure 6.2 compares the proportion of businesses accounted for by each industry in 

Taranaki with the national situation. 

Figure 6.2  Comparison of business units by industry, 2006 

BERL Regional Databse; Statistics NZ

0.1


0.4

1.8


0.8

3.5


2.1

3.1


1.3

0.1


2.2

0.1


10.2

14.8


3.0

31.9


1.9

2.0


0.4

23.5


2.0

2.3


11.5

7.5


0.2

2.2


0.4

1.4


34.7

3.7


2.9

3.8


0.4

0.8


3.1

2.7


0.5

0.4


16.1

0

9



18

27

36



Ag

ric


ul

tu

re



Fo

re

st



ry

Fi

sh



in

g

M



in

in



(O

&G

)



Fo

od

 p



ro

ce

ss



in

g

En



gi

ne

er



in

g

O



th

er

 m



fg

U

til



iti

es

C



on

st

ru



ct

io

n



W

ho

le



al



re

ta

il



H

os

pit



al

ity


Tr

an

sp



or

t &


 s

to

ra



ge

C

om



m

un

ic



at

io

ns



Bu

s,

 fi



na

nc



pr

op



er

ty

G



ov

er

nm



en

t a


dm

in

Ed



uc

at

io



n

H

ea



lth

 &

 c



om

m

un



ity

C

ul



tu

ra

l a



nd

 re


cr

ea

tio



na

l

Pe



rs

on

al



Sector

B

u

s

ine

s

s

 uni

ts

 (% of tota

l)

Taranaki


New  Zealand

 

The relative importance of agriculture is clear in that it accounted for double the proportion of 



businesses in Taranaki as in New Zealand as a whole.  On the other hand, the business, 

finance and property services industry makes up a far larger portion of all businesses 

nationally than in Taranaki. 

Table 6.2 summarizes the change in the number of business units within each industry in 

Taranaki over the last five years.  It also shows overall New Zealand business units growth. 

 

60 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Table 6.2  Taranaki business units, 2001 – 2006 

Industry

2001

2004

2005

2006

2005

2006

2001 to 

2006

Agriculture

4,282

4,552


4,505

4,438


-1.0

-1.5


0.7

Forestry


192

191


181

174


-5.2

-3.9


-1.9

Fishing


22

23

23



19

0.0


-17.4

-2.9


Mining (O&G)

37

40



47

57

17.5



21.3

9.0


Food processing

41

40



42

50

5.0



19.0

4.0


Engineering

267


273

266


282

-2.6


6.0

1.1


Other manufacturing

231


236

244


236

3.4


-3.3

0.4


Utilities

25

24



21

20

-12.5



-4.8

-4.4


Construction

704


799

866


963

8.4


11.2

6.5


Wholesale & retail trade

1,414


1,444

1,457


1,465

0.9


0.5

0.7


Hospitality

242


286

296


297

3.5


0.3

4.2


Transport & storage

238


254

259


262

2.0


1.2

1.9


Communications

96

102



109

108


6.9

-0.9


2.4

Business, finance & property svs

2,081

2,799


2,861

3,011


2.2

5.2


7.7

Government administration

51

53

53



49

0.0


-7.5

-0.8


Education

254


255

254


256

-0.4


0.8

0.2


Health & community svs

404


420

427


442

1.7


3.5

1.8


Cultural & recreational svs

247


261

270


267

3.4


-1.1

1.6


Personal svs

332


372

378


397

1.6


5.0

3.6


Taranaki

11,160

12,424

12,559

12,793

1.1

1.9

2.8

New Zealand

368,080

421,468

432,613

443,369

2.6

2.5

3.8

Business Units (number)

source:BERL Regional Database, Statistics NZ

%pa change

 

The biggest growth in percentage terms in the number of business units over the five years 



occurred in mining (9.0 percent per annum, almost exclusively in oil and gas); business, 

finance and property services (7.7 percent per annum), construction (6.5 percent per 

annum); hospitality (4.2 percent per annum); and food processing (4.0 percent per annum). 

Only four of the 19 industries have seen the number of business units fall.  These included 

utilities (-4.4 percent per annum), fishing (-2.9 percent per annum), forestry (-1.9 percent per 

annum); and government administration (-0.8 percent per annum). 

Figure 6.3 compares business unit growth rates for Taranaki and New Zealand over the 

period from 2001 to 2006. 

 

61 


Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Figure 6.3  Business units trend, 2001 – 2006 

100


105

110


115

120


125

2001


2002

2003


2004

2005


2006

B

u

si

n

ess

 u

n

it

s

 i

n

d

ex 

2001=

100

Taranaki


New  Zealand

Source:  BERL

 

Overall, business unit growth has been quite similar in New Zealand and Taranaki over the 



last five years. 

Figure 6.4 compares annual growth rates for the number of business units in each industry in 

Taranaki and New Zealand for the period from 2001 to 2006. 

 

62 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Figure 6.4  Comparison of business units growth by industry, 2001 – 2006 

BERL Regional Databse; Statistics NZ

-1.9


9.0

-4.4


6.5

2.4


7.7

-0.8


1.4

-3.2


1.8

0.8


1.7

2.6


5.5

2.9


0.5

3.4


4.2

3.6


1.6

1.8


0.2

1.9


4.2

0.7


0.4

1.1


4.0

-2.9


0.7

0.4


3.9

2.1


7.1

0.3


4.8

2.9


3.7

-5

0



5

10

Ag



ric

ul

tu



re

Fo

re



st

ry

Fis



hi

ng

M



in

in



(O

&G

)



Fo

od

 p



ro

ce

ss



in

g

En



gi

ne

er



in

g

O



th

er

 m



fg

U

til



iti

es

C



on

st

ru



ct

io

n



W

ho

le



al



re

ta

il



H

os

pit



al

ity


Tr

an

sp



or

t &


 s

to

ra



ge

C

om



m

un

ic



at

io

ns



Bu

s,

 fi



na

nc



pr

op



er

ty

G



ov

er

nm



en

t a


dm

in

Ed



uc

at

io



n

H

ea



lth

 &

 c



om

m

un



ity

C

ul



tu

ra

l a



nd

 re


cr

ea

tio



na

l

Pe



rs

on

al



Sector

B

u

s

ine

s

s

 uni

ts

 gr

ow

th 

2

0

0

1

-2

0

0

6

 (%pa

)

Taranaki


New  Zealand

 

63 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

November 2007 


 

Growth in the number of business units exceeded the national average in mining; 

construction; business, finance and property services; food processing; communications; 

and agriculture. 

The number of business units fell most in utilities, fishing and forestry, while there was also a 

small decline in the number of government administration business units. 

 

 

 



 

 

 



 

 

 



 

 

 



 

 

All work is done, and services rendered at the request of, and for the purposes of the client only. Neither BERL nor 



any of its employees accepts any responsibility on any grounds whatsoever, including negligence, to any other 

person. 


While every effort is made by BERL to ensure that the information, opinions and forecasts provided to the client are 

accurate and reliable, BERL shall not be liable for any adverse consequences of the client’s decisions made in 

reliance of any report provided by BERL, nor shall BERL be held to have given or implied any warranty as to 

whether any report provided by BERL will assist in the performance of the client’s function

 

 

64 



Taranaki Industry Projections 2006-2026 

Venture Taranaki 

September 2007 

BERL reports are printed on 100 percent recycled paper using soy ink. 



Document Outline

  •  
  •  
  •  
  • 1 Executive Summary 
    • Employment 
    • GDP 
    • Key sectors 
    •  Projections 
    • Taranaki Industry Projections 2006 – 2026 
    •  
    •   
    •  List of Figures 
    • 2 Introduction 
    • 3 Taranaki Industry Structure and Performance 
      • 3.1 Taranaki population 
      • 3.2 Taranaki employment 
      • 3.3 Taranaki GDP 
      • 3.4 Summary of Taranaki Industry structure and performance 
    • 4 Taranaki’s Key Sectors 
      • 4.1 Approach 
      • 4.2  Oil and gas sector 
      • 4.3  Dairy sector 
      • 4.4  Meat processing sector 
      • 4.5  Engineering sector 
      • 4.6  Other manufacturing sector 
      • 4.7  Education sector 
      • 4.8  Public sector 
      • 4.9  Tourism 
    • 5 Industry Projections 
      • 5.1 Employment projections 
      • 5.2  GDP projections 
      • 5.3  Summary of projections 
    • 6 Appendices 
      • 6.1 Multiplier analysis method 
        • Employment Impact multipliers 
          • Direct, indirect and induced effects 
          • Leakages 
          • Limitations of multiplier analysis 
            • Partial equilibrium analysis 
            • Regions and boundaries 
      • 6.2 BERL projections method 
        • 6.2.1 National projections 
        • 6.2.2 Regional Projections 
      • 6.3  Taranaki business units 

Yüklə 0,59 Mb.

Dostları ilə paylaş:
1   2   3   4   5   6




Verilənlər bazası müəlliflik hüququ ilə müdafiə olunur ©azkurs.org 2024
rəhbərliyinə müraciət

gir | qeydiyyatdan keç
    Ana səhifə


yükləyin