To provide an assessment of the foreign currency risk associated with certain of the Company’s foreign currency derivative
positions, the Company performed a sensitivity analysis using a value-at-risk (“VAR”) model to assess
the potential impact of
fluctuations in exchange rates. The VAR model consisted of using a Monte Carlo simulation to generate thousands of random
market price paths assuming normal market conditions. The VAR is the maximum expected loss in fair value, for a given
confidence interval, to the Company’s foreign currency derivative positions due to adverse movements in rates. The VAR model
is not intended to represent actual losses but is used as a risk estimation and management tool. Forecasted transactions, firm
commitments and assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies were excluded from the model. Based on the results of
the model, the Company estimates with 95%
confidence, a maximum one-day loss in fair value of $1.0 billion as of
September 24, 2022, compared to a maximum one-day loss in fair value of $550 million as of September 25, 2021. Because the
Company uses foreign currency instruments for hedging purposes, the losses in fair value incurred
on those instruments are
generally offset by increases in the fair value of the underlying exposures.
Actual future gains and losses associated with the Company’s investment portfolio, debt and derivative positions may differ
materially from the sensitivity analyses performed as of September 24, 2022 due to the inherent
limitations associated with
predicting the timing and amount of changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates and the Company’s actual
exposures and positions.
Apple Inc. | 2022 Form 10-K | 27