Visitor Trends Report
Participation levels and trends
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Participation levels and trends
A short summary is provided below on New Zealanders participation in six of the most common outdoor recreation activities that take place on public conservation land. These are walking, tramping, mountain biking, camping, freshwater fishing and hunting. Walking Walking is the most popular sport and recreation activity undertaken by New Zealanders. Estimates on the scale of walking as a recreational activity vary;
• In the 2007/08 Active New Zealand Survey 64.1% of New Zealanders were found to have walked for recreation at least once in the preceding 12 months (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009a).
•
Walking and trekking was the most common active pursuit undertaken by New Zealanders on trips within New Zealand (Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment 2013a). It was undertaken on more than 4.7 million trips in 2011.
• Walking is by far the most significant recreational activity undertaken by New Zealanders on public conservation land. Of the 56% of New Zealanders who had visited a DOC managed area in 2011 /12, 35% had undertaken a walk of less than three hours and 10% had undertaken a day walk on their most recent visit. Both the percentage who were walking (+6%) and the overall percentage of New Zealanders visiting areas managed by the Department (+5%), increased significantly compared to the previous year (Premium Research 2012).
Trend data on walking is very limited. It is unknown whether the number of people walking for recreation is increasing or decreasing in the long term.
Participation in walking is high across most groups in society. However some differences are evident. •
The Active New Zealand Survey found that men (52.6%), adults aged 16-24 (42.6%) and Māori (56.6) were less likely to have walked for recreation than other demographics (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009d).
•
The 2012 National Survey of New Zealanders found that women were significantly more likely than men to have undertaken a short walk (< 3 hours) on their most recent visit to public conservation land (Colmar Brunton Research unpublished data).
The Department of Conservation provides a significant number of facilities for trampers across New Zealand however understanding participation levels and trends for tramping is difficult. This arises because
•
The term “tramping” can mean different things to different people.
• The Active New Zealand (tramping) and Roy Morgan (bush walking / tramping) both use single categories that could contain both day and overnight activities.
• There is disagreement between the two main data sources on whether adult participation in tramping is increasing or decreasing (Figure 34).
Estimates of participation in tramping vary. •
Data from Roy Morgan Research indicates that the number of New Zealanders who are regular participants in tramping and bushwalking has increased from 126,000 (4.2%) in 2002 to 179,000 (5.1%) in 2011 (Roy Morgan Research unpublished data). This suggests the number of trampers has increased by 42% over this period.
•
The Active New Zealand survey estimated that approximately 306,000 (5.1%) New Zealanders participated in tramping (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009a).
•
In the 2011/12 National Survey of New Zealanders 3% of visitors to public conservation land had undertaken an overnight or multi day tramp on their most recent visit (Premium Research 2012). This percentage was unchanged from the previous year.
Figure 34: Adult participation in tramping (Source: Sport and Recreation New Zealand & Roy Morgan Single Source Database) 4.2
5.1 11 13 13 9.4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1996 1998 2000
2002 2004
2006 2008
2010 2012
Year % o f New Zeal anders par ti ci p a ting Roy Morgan Active New Zealand
There is more agreement between the surveys on the demographic characteristics of trampers. They suggest that more than 60% of trampers are aged 35 and over and that there are more male than female trampers (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009c, Roy Morgan Research 2011).
Concerns that tramping does not appeal to younger age groups appear to be unfounded. •
The Roy Morgan Survey shows a recent trend of increased participation in tramping among New Zealanders aged 18-24. It is estimated that there were only 9,000 regular trampers in this age group in 2002 but this rose sharply to 29,000 in 2011 (Roy Morgan Research unpublished data).
• The Active New Zealand survey estimated that there were 58,000 trampers in the 16-24 age group. Their participation rate of 9.4% was only slightly below the 10.7% participation found in the 25-49 age group (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009c).
•
The National Survey of New Zealanders also found much higher levels of participation in tramping among 18-24 year olds compared to the overall population (Colmar Brunton Research unpublished data).
Mountain biking covers a diverse range of biking activities and, like tramping, there are issues with definitions. In particular people using easier off road cycle trails, such as the Otago Central Rail Trail, may not self-identify as mountain bikers in surveys. They may also not fall into other categories that are used, (such as road cycling in the Active New Zealand Survey). This means that the importance of cycling or mountain biking as an activity could be under estimated or that data will not adequately track changes in participation. Estimates of participation in mountain biking are as follows:
• The 2007/08 Active New Zealand Survey estimated that 6.1% of New Zealanders (202,000 people) had participated in mountain biking (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009a).
• The Roy Morgan Survey found that 2.5% of New Zealanders (or 89,000 people) were regular mountain bikers in 2011 (Roy Morgan Research 2011 and unpublished data).
• In 2011/12 two percent of visitors to public conservation land indicated that mountain biking was the main activity on their most recent visit (Premium Research 2012).
Despite a widely held perception that the number of mountain bikers is increasing there is no long term data that supports this.
• Participation levels in the Active New Zealand survey have stayed at around 6% since the first survey in 1997 (Rundle 2009).
• Data has only been collected on mountain biking by Roy Morgan Research from 2009 onwards. It is estimated however, that the number of regular mountain bikers has increased 7% since 2008 (Roy Morgan Research unpublished data).
Like tramping there is agreement between the two surveys on the demographics of mountain bikers. Men make up approximately three quarters of New Zealand mountain bikers and the largest age group (38 – 41% of participants) is those aged 35-49 (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009b, Roy Morgan Research 2011).
Participation figures for camping are not available from either the Roy Morgan or Active New Zealand Surveys. However a survey undertaken by Mobius Research in 2006 found that 37% of New Zealanders were regular campers and 43% were non-campers (i.e. didn’t camp and weren’t interested). A further 20% of New Zealanders were described as latent campers. These were made up of two groups; those who were not regular campers but who had a continuing interest in camping, or those who had never camped but were interested in camping in the future (Mobius Research 2006). The high number of latent campers indicates that there is considerable scope to grow the number of campers. Unfortunately there is no data to indicate whether the number of New Zealanders who are camping is increasing or decreasing.
Information on the scale of camping on public conservation land varies. According to the National Survey of New Zealanders, out of the 56% of New Zealanders who visited public conservation land in 2011/12, 5% had gone camping on their most recent visit (Premium Research 2012). However, this statistic probably reflects the timing of the survey which was carried out in May and June. When respondents in the same survey were asked specifically about the DOC facilities they had used in the past three years, 20% said that they had stayed at a basic DOC campsite, 16% at a standard DOC campsite and 9% at a serviced DOC campsite. Mobius Research (2006) found that there were few demographic attributes that were characteristic of regular campers. Instead they suggested that camping was an activity enjoyed by a wide cross section of New Zealanders – male and female, mixed ages and across a range of incomes.
Freshwater fishing is a significant recreational activity carried out on public conservation land. While Fish & Game manage most freshwater fishing in the country, marginal strips and other areas of public conservation land are important for river and lake access. The Department of Conservation also directly manages the Taupō Fishery.
The Fish & Game National Angler Survey (Unwin 2009) is an additional source of participation data alongside the Roy Morgan and Active New Zealand surveys and the National Survey of New Zealanders. The surveys show that participation in freshwater fishing is static or declining.
•
The National Angler Survey estimated that New Zealand resident anglers had spent 1.156 million angler-days within Fish & Game managed fisheries in 1994/95. This declined to 1.111 million angler days in 2001/02 and increased to 1.202 million angler days in 2007/08. The total number of angler-days increased by only 4% over a period of 13 years (Unwin 2009).
•
The Roy Morgan survey estimated that the number of New Zealanders who were regular freshwater fishers decreased 9% between 2002 and 2011 from 67,000 to 63,000 (Roy Morgan Research unpublished data). This was a decline in participation rate from 2.2% to 1.8% of New Zealanders (Roy Morgan Research 2012).
•
The Active New Zealand Survey estimated that 5.7% of New Zealanders participated in freshwater fishing in 2007/08 (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009a).
•
In 2011/12 2.5% of visitors to DOC managed areas indicated that they had been fishing on their most recent visit (Colmar Brunton Research unpublished data).
Freshwater fishing is a male dominated activity. 72% of New Zealanders who participated regularly in 2011 were male and 28% were female. 46% were aged 50 years and over. Hunting
Hunting appears to be one of only two major outdoor activities that is growing strongly. •
According to the Roy Morgan Survey the number of regular hunters increased 32.6% between 2002 and 2011 from 46,000 to 61,000 New Zealanders (Roy Morgan Research unpublished data). Participation was estimated to have increased from 1.5% to 1.7% of New Zealanders (Roy Morgan Research 2012).
•
The Active New Zealand Survey estimated that 4.6% of New Zealanders were hunters in 2007/08 (Sport and Recreation New Zealand 2009a).
• According to the Domestic Travel Survey, hunting and shooting was included in 470,000 domestic trips in 2011. This was a 34.1% increase from the previous year (Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment 2013a).
The overwhelming majority of hunters (93.8%) are male while there is a relatively even distribution across age categories (Roy Morgan Research 2012). How does participation in outdoor recreation in the Central North Island differ from the rest of New Zealand? Overall participation Residents of Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki Conservancy are significantly more likely to visit areas managed by the Department of Conservation than New Zealanders overall. In 2011/12 62.5% of conservancy residents had visited at least one DOC managed area in the previous 12 months. The figure for New Zealand overall was only 56%. This was also the highest level of participation for any North Island Conservancy (Colmar Brunton Research unpublished data).
While overall participation in outdoor recreation among local residents is high, assessing demand for individual activities at regional level is difficult. There are several reasons for this:
1. DOC and RTO boundaries do not correspond to the regions used in either the Active New Zealand Survey or the Roy Morgan Surveys. 2.
There is no trend data available at regional level only one-off snapshots of participation. 3.
Only the ten most popular activities in each region are listed in the Active New Zealand Survey 4.
Mountain biking and freshwater fishing are not listed as a separate activities at regional level in the Active New Zealand Survey and are instead combined with other categories. 5.
The graphs below show participation data from the Roy Morgan Survey for four activities: bush walking / tramping, hunting (including game shooting), mountain biking and freshwater fishing. Data is provided for five North Island regions along with data for New Zealand as a whole. The information may indicate where in the region new opportunities are more likely to be successful and can be summarised as follows.
• Tramping participation is high in the Waikato, Hawkes Bay and Taranaki (Figure 35).
•
Hunting participation is high in the Bay of Plenty and Manawatu – Whanganui areas and is very low in Hawkes Bay (Figure 36).
• Participation in mountain biking is high in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Taranaki areas. Participation levels in the Manawatu-Whanganui region are the lowest in the country (Figure 37).
• Freshwater fishing is most popular in the Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Manawatu- Whanganui regions and is low in Taranaki (Figure 38).
5.1 6.6
4.9 7.7
6.6 4.4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 New Zealand Waikato Bay of Plenty Hawkes Bay Taranaki
Manawatu - Whanganui % of po pu lat ion w h o ar e r e gu la r tr am pe rs
Figure 36: Participation in hunting by region (Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Database 2011) 1.7
2.2 3 0.5 1.5 3.9
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3 3.5
4 4.5
New Zealand Waikato
Bay of Plenty Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu - Whanganui % of po pu la ti o n w ho a re r e g u la r h u n te rs
Figure 37: Participation in mountain biking by region (Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Database 2011) 2.5
3 2.2
1.4 3.2
0.9 0 0.5 1 1.5
2 2.5
3 3.5
New Zealand Waikato
Bay of Plenty Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu - Whanganui % of po pu lat ion w h o ar e re gu lar m o u n ta in bik e rs
Figure 38: Participation in freshwater fishing by region (Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Database 2011) 1.8
2.1 2.1
1.4 0.4
2.7 0 0.5 1 1.5
2 2.5
3 New Zealand Waikato Bay of Plenty Hawkes Bay Taranaki
Manawatu - Whanganui % of po pu lati on w h o are re gu lar fres hw at er f ish ers
In contrast the 2007/08 Active New Zealand survey noted higher levels of participation in tramping for most central North Island regions compared to the national figure of 9.4%.
• Bay of Plenty 10.7% •
•
Manawatu 11.8% •
Whanganui 11.9% Participation was lower in Hawkes Bay at 8.2% and levels for the Waikato were not stated.
The data for tramping for both Hawkes Bay and the Bay of Plenty contradicts the information from the Roy Morgan Survey. This is likely due to a number of factors including different regional boundaries, a high margin of error for the Active New Zealand Survey at regional level, and the fact that the snapshots were taken approximately three years apart.
Demographic Trends The final section of this report looks at national, regional and local demographic trends in New Zealand. Three key trends are likely to significantly affect demand for outdoor recreation activities in the medium to longer term nationally. These are population growth or decline in certain areas, an aging population and increasing ethnic diversity. The Department and partners will need to be mindful of these trends when planning investment for new developments and significant upgrades to existing facilities. These trends are outlined below.
New Zealand’s population is increasing and is expected to reach 5.2 million people by 2031. The fastest growing areas nationally will be Auckland, Hamilton City, Waikato District and Tauranga in the North Island and the Selwyn, Waimakariri and Queenstown Lakes Districts in the South Island (Figure 39 & 40). It is expected that 60% of New Zealand’s population growth will occur in Auckland and by 2031 the region’s population will be almost 2 million. In contrast, a static or even declining population is expected in many rural areas in the central and lower North Island (Statistics New Zealand 2012a).
Population changes are likely to affect domestic tourism flows and there may also be implications for where the Department and others choose to invest in recreation opportunities for local users. Many facilities have a long economic life, which may be several decades for huts and other major structures. Future use levels should therefore be an important consideration in choosing where to invest in building or upgrading facilities for visitors. Figure 39: Projected population change North Island Territorial Authority areas 2006 – 31 (Source: Statistics New Zealand medium projection) Figure 40: Projected population change South Island Territorial Authority areas 2006 – 31 (Source: Statistics New Zealand medium projection)
Aging population Like many western countries, New Zealand has an aging population. Overall, 21 percent of New Zealand’s population is projected to be aged 65 years and over in 2031, up from 14 percent in 2012 (Statistics New Zealand 2012a). In addition to this, fifty of New Zealand’s 67 territorial authority areas are predicted to have fewer children in 2031 than they did in 2011 (Statistics New Zealand 2012a). This is due to their being fewer women of child bearing age and lower fertility rates in these areas.
These patterns have implications for the mix of opportunities that the Department and others provide. An aging population may not necessarily result in significantly reduced participation as New Zealanders are likely to stay active and healthy later in life than those of previous generations. Furthermore, for those currently aged 55+, participation in recreation on public conservation land is still relatively high. According to the 2011/12 National Survey of New Zealanders, 50.9% of New Zealanders in this age group had visited at least one DOC managed area in the preceding 12 months. This was only slightly below the percentage for the most active age group, those aged 40-54 (Colmar Brunton Research unpublished data). Instead, older New Zealanders may use the outdoors differently and this may translate into demand for different opportunities to what is provided at.
The Department is currently shifting to have more of a focus on family friendly gateway opportunities and projections of fewer children in some areas, is a challenge to this. However this direction is worth pursuing as getting more young people into the outdoors has potential benefits in terms of life long participation and support for conservation. The projections make it clear however, that the Department needs to be careful to provide family friendly opportunities in parts of the country where they are most likely to be successful.
Changing ethnic mix New Zealand’s population is expected to become more ethnically diverse as the Maori, Pacific Island and Asian populations grow at a much faster rate than the European population. In particular, New Zealand’s Asian population is expected to almost double between 2006 and 2021 (Statistics New Zealand 2010).
This has implications for the Department of Conservation as the fastest growing ethnic groups are also those that are less likely to visit public conservation land. Participation is lowest among New Zealanders of Pacific Island ethnicity. The 2011/12 National Survey of New Zealanders found that only 34.3% of those of Pacific ethnicity had visited a DOC managed area in the preceding 12 months. This compares to 47.3% of Asian New Zealanders, 53.5% of Maori and 57.9% of those who identified as NZ European / Pakeha (Colmar Brunton Research unpublished data).
Zealand, National Ethnic Population Projection Series 6) Ethnic group Estimated population 2006 Projected population 2026 Projected growth rate 2006 - 2026 European or other 3,213,000 3,472,000 +8.1% Māori 624,000 811,000
+30.0% Asian 404,000 791,000 +95.8%
Pacific 302,000 481,000
+59.3%
The changing ethnic mix in New Zealand challenges the Department to promote its existing opportunities better and also to provide opportunities that are of interest and relevant to a range of people who are not participating at present. Demographic changes in the Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki region Projected population changes for the six Territorial Local Authorities in the region (Taupō, Ruapehu, New Plymouth, Stratford, South Taranaki and Whanganui Districts), are as follows (Figure 44):
• The population of the Ruapehu District is projected to decline significantly by 22.8% between 2011 and 2031.
• Smaller rates of decrease are projected for the South Taranaki (-8.6%), Whanganui (-3.4%) and Stratford Districts (-1.7%).
• The populations of the New Plymouth and Taupō Districts are projected to increase by 5.7% and 3.5% respectively.
•
The population of the Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki region as a whole will be relatively static. It is projected to decline by 0.8% from 200,980 in 2011 to 199,370 in 2031 (Statistics New Zealand 2012b).
Figure 44: Projected population change in the Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki region 1996 – 2031 (source: Statistics New Zealand medium projection) 0 10000 20000 30000
40000 50000
60000 70000
80000 90000
1996 2001
2006 2011
2016 2021
2026 2031
Year E s ti ma te d / pr oj e c te d p op ul a ti on Taupo District Ruapehu District New Plymouth District Stratford District South Taranaki District Wanganui District
All areas of the Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki region show a similar trend with respect to changes in age structure over the next 20 years. The number of people aged 65 years and over is expected to increase by between 58 and 81% across the region (Figure 45) compared to a national increase of 88%. In contrast to national projections the number of residents across all other age groups is projected to decline. Nationally under 15s are projected to increase by 4.5%, the 15-39 age group by 11.4% and the 40-64 age group by 4.1% (Statistics New Zealand 2012b). Figure 45: Percentage change in resident population of Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki region 2011 – 2031 by age group (Source: Statistics New Zealand medium projection) -10
-11 -10
81 -34
-30 -40
64 -8 -8 -14 -15
-13 -22
58 66 -60 -40 -20
0 20 40 60 80 100 0–14 15–39
40–64 65+
Age group % ch an ge Taupo District Ruapehu District New Plymouth, Stratford, South Taranaki Districts Whanganui District
Complete information on projected numbers for different ethnic groups was not available for the various local council areas in the Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki region.
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Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (2013e). Key domestic RTI data tables. Accessed from http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/tourism/tourism-research-data/regional-tourism- indicators/domestic-data on 9 April 2013.
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New Zealand, Wellington. 31
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on 9 April 2013. Unwin, M. (2009). Angler usage of lake and river fisheries managed by Fish & Game New Zealand: results from the 2007/08 National Angling Survey. NIWA, Christchurch. 110 p. Accessed from http://fishing.fishandgame.org.nz/sites/default/files/National%20Anglers%20Survey%202007-08.pdf on 9 April 2013. Appendix 1: Popular DOC managed areas
The following tables list the areas of public conservation land that were visited by the largest number of New Zealanders and Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki residents in 2011/12. Data has been sourced from the National Survey of New Zealanders (Premium Research 2012).
Rank Location 1 Tongariro National Park 2 Karangahake Gorge 3
4 Arthurs Pass National Park 5 Coromandel Forest
Park 6 Rangitoto Island 7
8 Fiordland National Park 9 Egmont National Park 10
Abel Tasman National Park
Rank Location 1 Egmont National Park 2 Tongariro National Park 3 Whanganui National Park 4 Dawson Falls Power Station 5 North Egmont Camphouse 6 Tongariro River Walks 7 Coromandel Forest Park
8 Kaimanawa Forest Park
9
10
Bridge to Nowhere
Appendix 2: Site monitoring reports The following reports produced in the last 10 years were identified as being relevant to the Regional Tourism Opportunities Report for Tongariro Whanganui Taranaki Conservancy. These can be supplied on request
Region Site Details Taupō Taupō Fishery
Exploring future opportunities for the Taupō Fishery. Online visitor survey and economic impact analysis .
Taranaki Lucy’s Gully
Survey of 211 visitors at Lucy’s Gully carried out during the 2005/06 and 2006/07 seasons (Department of Conservation unpublished data).
Ruapehu Tongariro Alpine
Crossing Blaschke, P. & Whitney, P. (2007). Establishing integrative use limits on the Tongariro Crossing, Tongariro National Park. http://www.tba.co.nz/kete/case_studies/pdf/tongariro_crossing_case_study
Angus & Associates (2012). Tongariro Alpine Crossing visitor survey 2012. Unpublished report prepared for Department of Conservation by Angus & Associates.
Whanganui Pouakai Circuit
Survey of 149 users of the Pouakai Circuit Track carried out during the 2007/08 season (Rundle 2010). Whanganui River
Journey Survey of 276 users of the Whanganui River Journey carried out during the 2007/08 season (Rundle 2008).
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