Ncrfc mission and Products



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NCRFC Mission and Products

  • NCRFC Mission and Products

  • Forecast process

    • Meteorological driving data
    • Hydrologic model
  • September 2010 Forecasts

  • NWS Products

















NCRFC Mission and Products

  • NCRFC Mission and Products

  • Forecast process

    • Meteorological data
    • Hydrologic model
      • Daily Analysis
      • Calibration
  • Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project













NCRFC Mission and Products

  • NCRFC Mission and Products

  • Forecast process

    • Meteorological data
    • Hydrologic model
      • Daily Analysis
      • Calibration
  • Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project



NWSRFS – National Weather Service River Forecast System

  • NWSRFS – National Weather Service River Forecast System

  • Several models are run for each sub-watershed

    • Snow accumulation & melt
    • Soil moisture & runoff
    • River routing
    • Reservoirs










Models are analyzed and adjusted on a daily basis.

  • Models are analyzed and adjusted on a daily basis.

  • Goal: to accurately simulate streamflow while maintaining reasonable model states.

  • Only make adjustments when necessary and justified.



Calibration period 1948-2004

  • Calibration period 1948-2004

  • Snow, soil moisture, routing, and reservoir models all require calibration

  • “Subjective” function is how well we simulate the hydrograph at the outlet.

  • Could be used to calibrate thresholds for this project.































: This product contains preliminary data that may be subject to revision.

  • : This product contains preliminary data that may be subject to revision.

  • : Refer to your local WFO for the latest official river forecast.

  • :

  • : North Central River Forecast Center, Chanhassen, MN

  • :

  • : Mon Nov 15 15:41:00 2010

  • :

  • : Wolf R New London Adj Flood Stage ft

  • .E NEWW3 1114 Z DH18/DC1115/QRIP/DIH06 : 6-Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs)

  • .E1 2.025/ 2.015/ 2.000/ 2.010/

  • .E NEWW3 1115 Z DH18/DC1115/QRICB/DIH06 : 6-Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs)

  • .E1 2.029/ 2.061/ 2.116/ 2.196/ 2.275/ 2.338/ 2.397/ 2.452/

  • .E1 2.494/ 2.529/ 2.558/ 2.580/ 2.597/ 2.611/ 2.622/ 2.629/

  • .E1 2.633/ 2.628/ 2.610/ 2.584/ 2.555/ 2.524/ 2.493/ 2.461/

  • .E1 2.430/ 2.400/ 2.371/ 2.343/

  • :

  • : Little Wolf R Royalton Adj Flood Stage ft

  • .E ROYW3 1114 Z DH18/DC1115/QRIP/DIH06 : 6-Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs)

  • .E1 0.485/ 0.485/ 0.572/ 0.606/

  • .E ROYW3 1115 Z DH18/DC1115/QRICB/DIH06 : 6-Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs)

  • .E1 0.640/ 0.666/ 0.684/ 0.692/ 0.693/ 0.686/ 0.672/ 0.653/

  • .E1 0.630/ 0.603/ 0.573/ 0.541/ 0.512/ 0.483/ 0.456/ 0.432/

  • .E1 0.413/ 0.398/ 0.386/ 0.376/ 0.367/ 0.360/ 0.354/ 0.348/

  • .E1 0.343/ 0.338/ 0.334/ 0.330/







NWS/North Central River Forecast Center

  • NWS/North Central River Forecast Center

  • Brian.Connelly@noaa.gov

  • 952-368-2540

  • Steve.Buan@noaa.gov

  • 952-368-2545



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