Power Blackout Risks



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Power Blackout Risks 
Risk Management Options 
Emerging Risk Initiative – Position Paper
November 2011


2
Content
1. Summary 
3
2. Power blackouts challenge society and economy 
4
3. Blackout risks on the increase 
5
3.1. How power market trends influence blackout risks 
 5
3.1.1. 
Liberalisation and privatisation 
5
3.1.2. 
Renewable energies 
5
3.1.3. 
Huge investments in power supply infrastructure required
6
3.2. Historical power blackout events and future scenarios 
 8
3.2.1. 
Historical blackouts 
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3.2.2. What are the causes of blackouts? 
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3.2.3. Average blackout duration per country 
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4. Potential blackout scenario
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4.1. consequences 
12
4.2. cost analysis of Historic blackout scenarios 
15
5. Considerations for risk management 
18
5.1. trends affecting tHe business interruption (bi) risk landscape
and power dependency 
 18
5.1.1. General impact of blackout in light of changed production processes 
18
5.1.2. Specific impact based on car manufacturers 
19
5.2. business continuity planning to mitigate power blackout risks 
20
5.3. risk transfer solutions 
 22
5.3.1. 
Principles of insurability 
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5.3.2. Current risk transfer solutions 
23
5.3.3. Future risk transfer products 
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5.3.4. Residual risk acceptance 
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6. Conclusion
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7. Annex
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authors:
Michael Bruch, Volker Münch, Markus Aichinger (Allianz) 
Michael Kuhn, Martin Weymann (Swiss Re) 
Gerhard Schmid (Munich Re)

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