Appendix 4-A: Per Capita GDP of ASEAN Countries, Current Prices (US$)
|
1990
|
1992
|
1994
|
1996
|
1998
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
Singapore
|
12,091.0
|
15,381.6
|
20,659.4
|
25,215.8
|
21,009.3
|
23,077.1
|
20,723.2
|
21,208.8
|
22,155.8
|
25,352.5
|
26,836.2
|
Brunei
|
14,171.0
|
15,661.9
|
14,571.2
|
17,370.0
|
13,085.5
|
18,476.9
|
16,830.0
|
17,146.0
|
18,799.9
|
22,001.7
|
25,753.7
|
Malaysia
|
2,432.0
|
3,152.7
|
3,703.4
|
4,764.1
|
3,254.1
|
3,844.2
|
3,664.7
|
3,884.2
|
4,160.9
|
4,651.5
|
5,041.6
|
Thailand
|
1,518.2
|
1,899.1
|
2,441.8
|
3,037.5
|
1,828.7
|
1,966.8
|
1,835.8
|
1,999.3
|
2,232.9
|
2,484.4
|
2,659.0
|
Indonesia
|
699.1
|
821.6
|
1,016.9
|
1,264.4
|
516.0
|
806.9
|
772.7
|
928.1
|
1,099.7
|
1,176.0
|
1,283.2
|
Philippines
|
718.1
|
825.0
|
949.2
|
1,206.1
|
910.4
|
994.3
|
913.9
|
966.2
|
982.1
|
1,048.9
|
1,167.7
|
Vietnam
|
98.0
|
144.1
|
229.8
|
337.0
|
359.7
|
401.5
|
413.1
|
440.0
|
488.8
|
552.8
|
617.8
|
Laos
|
210.9
|
270.8
|
337.1
|
388.1
|
255.2
|
328.7
|
326.0
|
328.9
|
377.6
|
431.8
|
485.2
|
Cambodia
|
106.0
|
270.3
|
277.2
|
315.5
|
254.8
|
285.0
|
302.0
|
317.4
|
333.4
|
372.7
|
430.3
|
Myanmar
|
68.4
|
63.4
|
93.8
|
108.7
|
134.1
|
177.6
|
129.2
|
129.9
|
196.6
|
198.6
|
219.4
|
Source: World Economic Outlook Database, IMF (2006).
Appendix 4-B: PPP Per Capita GDP of ASEAN Countries (US$)
Countries
|
1990
|
1992
|
1994
|
1996
|
1998
|
2000
|
2001
|
2002
|
2003
|
2004
|
2005
|
Singapore
|
12,095.4
|
13,794.8
|
17,097.7
|
19,358.0
|
20,063.1
|
23,778.1
|
23,217.9
|
24,137.3
|
24,880.1
|
27,322.2
|
28,368.1
|
Brunei
|
n.a.
|
20,869.5
|
21,003.0
|
21,213.7
|
20,283.5
|
21,170.8
|
21,944.5
|
23,186.2
|
23,786.7
|
24,142.6
|
24,825.7
|
Malaysia
|
4,725.7
|
5,758.4
|
6,736.4
|
8,039.8
|
7,842.3
|
8,866.6
|
8,911.7
|
9,263.9
|
9,778.2
|
10,551.5
|
11,201.1
|
Thailand
|
3,621.7
|
4,386.7
|
5,272.1
|
6,257.0
|
5,558.9
|
6,180.2
|
6,410.5
|
6,813.6
|
7,366.4
|
7,889.8
|
8,367.9
|
Indonesia
|
2,127.5
|
2,479.1
|
2,891.6
|
3,405.4
|
3,084.7
|
3,369.2
|
3,533.9
|
3,703.0
|
3,910.2
|
4,163.6
|
4,459.1
|
Philippines
|
3,000.3
|
3,026.3
|
3,215.1
|
3,575.0
|
3,675.1
|
3,939.3
|
4,021.5
|
4,189.0
|
4,379.7
|
4,674.5
|
4,922.8
|
Vietnam
|
942.5
|
1,106.9
|
1,314.7
|
1,585.2
|
1,807.0
|
2,036.9
|
2,199.8
|
2,365.4
|
2,553.1
|
2,783.8
|
3,024.8
|
Laos
|
890.136
|
996.508
|
1,134.0
|
1,284.7
|
1,399.4
|
1,571.2
|
1,633.3
|
1,727.6
|
1,832.2
|
1,965.5
|
2,124.4
|
Cambodia
|
1,101.4
|
1,263.4
|
1,359.7
|
1,431.3
|
1,477.3
|
1,775.7
|
1,871.0
|
1,953.5
|
2,091.9
|
2,255.6
|
2,399.2
|
Myanmar
|
542.947
|
603.514
|
687.5
|
786.3
|
871.8
|
1,074.2
|
1,199.9
|
1,340.1
|
1,524.9
|
1,610.5
|
1,691.2
|
Source: World Economic Outlook Database, IMF (2006).
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CD-ROM:
IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOT): CD-ROM
Internet resources:
ASEAN Secretariat: http://www.aseansec.org/
EIU: http://library.sogang.ac.kr/dlsearch/TGUI/Theme/theme1/main.asp
Indo.com: http://www.indo.com/
ITC TradeMap: http://www.trademap.net/itc1/login.htm
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WEO - IMF: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/index.aspx
■ 국문초록
아세안자유무역지대(AFTA) 가입이 무역의 흐름에 미치는 영향:
베트남과 싱가포르의 비교 분석
이 논문은 AFTA 가입이 무역의 흐름에 미치는 영향을 개도국인 베트남과 선진경제인 싱가포르를 중심으로 비교·분석하고 있다. 중력방정식을 이용하여 고정효과(fixed effect)와 임의효과(random effect) 모형을 국가별로 적용, 지난 16년간 1990-2005년간 베트남과 싱가포르의 주요 무역상대국 23개국을 대상으로 회귀분석을 한 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 베트남과 싱가포르의 다자간 무역흐름을 살펴본 결과 AFTA 가입이 무역전환(trade diversion)을 초래한다는 증거를 보일 수 없었다. 둘째, 지역통합체의 가입에 따른 무역의 흐름은 시차적으로 보면 단기적으로 즉각 반응하지 않음을 알 수 있다. 셋째, 기술혁신과 수송망의 발전으로 물류비용이 크게 감소하였지만 물리적 거리의 중요성을 여전히 관찰할 수 있었다. 넷째, 공통언어의 사용이나 식민지 관계 등 문화적 유사성이 무역의 흐름에 중요한 변수로 작용하는 것으로 드러났다. 다섯째, 무역상대국간의 1인당 GDP의 격차 확대가 무역의 흐름에 부정적으로 작용하는 것으로 나타났다. 끝으로 이 지역의 자유로운 무역의 흐름을 저해하는 요인에 대한 효과적인 대응방안으로는 사회적 인프라의 구축이나 내부개혁 등이 주요 정책 과제로 제시되었다.
핵심어: 아세안자유무역지대(AFTA), 중력모형, 무역전환, 현시비교우위, 산업내 무역, 베트남, 싱가포르
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