Mechanical
versus discretionary systems
In classic Star Trek, Captain Kirk believed in his ability to make the best
decision in any circumstance based on his experience and cunning. Mr. Spock
contrasted Kirk’s style by using logic and the probabilities of success to make
the best decision.
Discretionary traders are similar to Kirk. They try to get by with their
experience,
intuition, and wits, relying on their ability to make the right
decisions in the heat of price action. Discretionary traders can have signals that
are more elaborate
than just price action, and can go deeper into the psychology
of what other traders are thinking. A discretionary trader’s methodologies may
consist of
trading the trader, anticipating the
actions of shorts and longs, like
professional poker players anticipate other players based on their bets.
In contrast, mechanical traders are more like Spock, only following a well
researched
plan for position sizing, specific entries and exits, and executing their
plan based solely on market behavior and probabilities of a success outcome.
For discretionary traders a bad trade could be one where they lose money, for
mechanical traders a bad trade is one where they lost
discipline and failed to
follow their trading plan.
Here are the differences between traders that rely on their instincts, intuition,
rules, and chart reading abilities and those who are pure,
mechanical, systematic
traders.
Discretionary Traders trading signals are:
- Based on information flow.
- Trying to anticipate what the market will do.
- They read their own opinions and past experiences into the current market
action.
- Based on what their own trading rules to govern their trading.
- Tied to their egos and the outcomes are typically tied to their emotions.
- Based on many different indicators to trade at different times. Sometimes it
may
be macro economic indicators, chart patterns, or even macroeconomic
news.
- Generally executed on a small watch list based on their expertise of the markets
they trade, or they are looking for patterns on
stocks through a screening
process.
- Based more on opinion, principles, and strategy than historical backtests.
- Based on creating great risk/reward ratios.
- Position sized based on the confidence they have on any one trade.
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