14.2. TIME SERIES PREPARATION AND SIMILARITY
|
461
|
|
200
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
200
|
|
|
195
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
195
|
|
PRICE
|
190
|
|
|
|
|
|
PRICE
|
190
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
STOCK
|
185
|
|
|
|
|
|
STOCK
|
185
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IBM
|
180
|
|
|
|
|
|
IBM
|
180
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
175
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
175
|
|
|
170
|
|
|
ACTUAL VALUES
|
|
|
170
|
|
|
|
|
20−DAY MOVING AVERAGE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
50−DAY MOVING AVERAGE
|
|
|
|
|
165
|
50
|
100
|
150
|
200
|
250
|
|
165
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NUMBER OF TRADING DAYS
|
|
|
|
|
(a) Moving average smoothing
ACTUAL VALUES
EXP. SMOOTHING (α=0.1)
EXP. SMOOTHING (α=0.05)
|
|
|
|
|
|
50
|
100
|
150
|
200
|
250
|
|
NUMBER OF TRADING DAYS
|
|
|
(b) Exponential smoothing
Figure 14.1: Various smoothing methods applied to IBM stock price from September 5, 2013 to September 4, 2014
Exponential Smoothing
In exponential smoothing, the smoothed value yi is defined as a linear combination of the current value yi, and the previously smoothed value yi−1. The smoothing parameter
∈ (0, 1) is used for this purpose.
yi = α · yi + (1 − α) · yi−1
|
(14.2)
|
The value of y0 is typically set to the first point in the series. When the value of α is 1, there are no smoothing effects, and the smoothed series is the same as the original series. When the value of α is 0, the entire series becomes smoothed to the constant value of y0. The approach is referred to as exponential smoothing because the value of yi can be expressed as an exponentially decayed sum of the series values. By recursively substituting the aforementioned equation into itself, the following can be shown:
i
|
|
yi = (1 − α)i · y0 + α · yj · (1 − α)i−j .
|
(14.3)
|
j=1
|
|
The choice of α regulates the decay factor. Unlike moving averages, exponential smoothing provides more importance to recent data points. Data points are not lost at the beginning of the series, and the impact of the lag is reduced for the same level of smoothing. Examples of moving average and exponential smoothing are illustrated in Fig. 14.1a, b, respectively. It is evident that exponential smoothing does not lose any points at the beginning of the series and generally provides slightly better smoothing for lower lag.
14.2.3 Normalization
Time series typically need to be normalized, especially when multiple series are analyzed simultaneously. For example, one series might measure temperature, whereas another might measure pressure. Because these values are measured on different scales, they cannot be compared meaningfully. Therefore, two normalization methods are commonly used to adjust for such variations.
462 CHAPTER 14. MINING TIME SERIES DATA
Range-based normalization: In range-based normalization, the minimum and maxi-mum value of the time series are determined. Let these values be denoted by min and max, respectively. Then, the time series value yi is mapped to the new value yi in the range (0, 1) as follows:
yi =
|
yi − min
|
.
|
(14.4)
|
|
max − min
|
|
Standardization: In standardization, the mean and standard deviation of the series are used for normalization. This is essentially the Z-value of the time series. Let μ and σ represent the mean and standard deviation of the values in the time series. Then, the time series value yi is mapped to a new value zi as follows:
Standardization is generally the preferred method. However, it does not guarantee a specific range of the time series values.
14.2.4 Data Transformation and Reduction
A variety of preprocessing methods exist for transforming and reducing the time series data into a reduced representation. Some of these methods transform the data into a smaller number of numeric coefficients, whereas other methods transform the data into discrete values.
14.2.4.1 Discrete Wavelet Transform
The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) converts a time series to multidimensional data. While time series can also be considered as multidimensional data by viewing1 the values at the different timestamps as dimensions, the values in successive timestamps are highly related to one another. A direct application of multidimensional methods ignores the tem-poral continuity in data values. In wavelets, the coefficients describe properties of different contiguous temporal regions of the series. Each coefficient is equal to half the difference in the average value of the behavioral attribute between a pair of carefully chosen contiguous segments of the series. The resulting representation can be more easily analyzed like multi-dimensional data because temporal locality is already incorporated within the coefficients. By using only the largest coefficients for representation, it is possible to reconstruct the entire time series accurately. Typically, the number of retained coefficients is much smaller than the length of the original time series. Thus, the approach is a dimensionality reduction method as well. DWT is described in detail in Sect. 2.4.4.1 of Chap. 2.
14.2.4.2 Discrete Fourier Transform
Wavelets are most effective when most of the variations in the series can be captured in specific local regions of the series. In cases where the series contain global periodicity, the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) is more effective. Examples of scenarios in which either of these methods would perform well are provided in Fig. 14.2. The basic idea is that any series
The concept of “dimension” can be defined in two ways for time series data. Each behavioral attribute in a multivariate series can be viewed as a dimension. Alternatively, the different values in a univariate time series can be viewed as dimensions. The usage is often dependent on the semantics of the application at hand.
14.2. TIME SERIES PREPARATION AND SIMILARITY
|
463
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DECOMPOSABLE INTO PERIODIC VARIATIONS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DECOMPOSABLE INTO LOCAL VARIATIONS
|
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
VALUE
|
2
|
GOOD FOR DISCRETE WAVELET TRANSFORM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
−1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GOOD FOR DISCRETE FOURIER TRANSFORM
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10
|
20
|
30
|
40
|
50
|
60
|
70
|
80
|
90
|
100
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TIME INDEX
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Figure 14.2: Preferred scenarios for DFT and DWT
of length n can be expressed as a linear combination of smooth periodic sinusoidal series. Along with a single constant term, the n − 1 sinusoidal series have periodicity drawn from n, n/2, n/3, . . . n/(n − 1) . The data can be reduced using this decomposition because only a small number of these constituent series have large enough contributions to be included. Consider a time series x0 . . . xn−1. Each coefficient Xk of the Fourier transform is a complex value which is defined as follows:
Dostları ilə paylaş: |