104 | P a g e
dozen anomalies, in terms of excess temperature - the peaks on the graph denoting very
hot years - approaching, or even exceeding, 20 °C. But there has been nothing remotely
like 2003, when the anomaly is nearly four degrees.
E "This is quite remarkable," Professor Jones told The Independent. "It's very unusual in
a statistical sense. If this series had a normal statistical distribution, you wouldn't get this
number. There turn period “how often it could be expected to recur” would be something
like one in a thou-sand years. If we look at an excess above the average of nearly four
degrees, then perhaps nearly three degrees of that is natural
variability, because we’ve
seen that in past summers. But the final degree of it is likely to be due to global warming,
caused by human actions.
F The summer of 2003 has, in a sense, been one that climate scientists have long been
expecting. Until now, the warming has been manifesting itself mainly in winters that have
been less cold than in summers that have been much hotter. Last week, the United
Nations predicted that winters were warming so quickly that winter sports would die out
in Europe's lower-level ski resorts. But sooner or later the unprecedented hot summer
was bound to come, and this year it did.
G One of the most dramatic features of the summer was the hot nights, especially in the
first half of August. In Paris, the temperature never dropped below 230°C (73.40°F) at all
between 7 and 14 August, and the city recorded its warmest-ever night on 11-12 August,
when the mercury did not drop below 25.50°C (77.90°F). Germany recorded its warmest-
ever night at Weinbiet in the Rhine valley with a lowest figure of 27.60°C (80.60°F) on 13
August, and similar record-breaking night-time temperatures were recorded in
Switzerland and Italy.
H The 15,000 excess deaths in France during August, compared with previous years,
have been related to the high night-time temperatures. The number gradually increased
during the first 12 days of the month, peaking at about 2,000 per day on the night of 12-
13 August, then fell off dramatically after 14 August when the minimum temperatures fell