Naked Economics: Undressing the Dismal Science pdfdrive com

Foreword

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by Burton G. Malkiel
I
t is widely believed that Scotsman Thomas Carlyle labeled economics the
“dismal science” well over one hundred years ago because it seemed boring,
uninteresting, unclear, and full of “on the one hand, on the other hand.” Indeed,
Harry Truman is reported to have said that to avoid ambiguity, he wanted to
have “one-armed economists.” In fact, Carlyle had something very different in
mind. What Carlyle reminded us was that scarcity was pervasive—that we have
to make choices between competing satisfactions, between jam today and jam
tomorrow, and between conflicting values and goals. Above all, the dour Scot
emphasized that everything has a cost and nothing can be produced without
work and sacrifice.
To be sure, many people do believe that economics and economists are dismal
in the popular sense, that is, extraordinarily dull. As one definition goes: “An
economist is someone who is good with numbers but does not have the
personality to be an accountant.” The tarnished image of economists is in large
part earned by their tendency to opaque writing, their use of often inscrutable
diagrams, and their excessive use of mathematics. Moreover, they often fail to
admit what they don’t know.
Why is economics the butt of so many jokes, and why do students often
become glassy-eyed when confronted with the study of economics as a
discipline? The reasons, I think, are that economists generally do not write well
and that most economics texts rely far too much on algebraic manipulation and
complex diagrams. Moreover, few economists are able to transmit the
considerable excitement of economic analysis or to show its relevance to
everyday life. This book by Charles Wheelan changes all that. Wheelan has an
anti-Midas touch. If he touched gold he would turn it to life.
This is a truly unique book. It contains no equations, no inaccessible jargon,
and no inscrutable diagrams. While equations and diagrams may well be behind
many of the ideas in economics, Wheelan shows that they can be reduced to
plain English. He boils economics down to its essentials. He demonstrates that
the term “lucid economist” is not an oxymoron.
In these pages, we see how many of the criticisms of economists are
undeserved. Economic analysis is a hard and complex subject—in many cases
far more complex than analysis in the physical sciences. Physics can elegantly
explain simple contained systems such as the planets revolving around the sun or
electrons in orbit around an atom. But even the physical sciences have difficulty
understanding phenomena in nature. Weather forecasting is a case in point.

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Despite complex satellite observations and intricate weather forecasting models,
meteorologists often cannot improve on very naive forecasting models such as
“The weather tomorrow will be exactly like it is today.” To be sure, the inertia
model misses all the turning points but retains an excellent overall record. And
when forecasters are asked to make longer-run projections on such subjects as
global warming, their range of forecasts makes economic forecasts appear
precise by comparison.
Economics is more difficult than the physical sciences because we cannot
usually run controlled laboratory experiments and because people do not always
behave predictably. A whole new branch of behavioral economics has attracted
considerable attention by combining the insights of psychologists and
economists, but we still are unable to predict individual behavior with any
precision. But that we are far from understanding everything does not mean that
we understand nothing. We do know that individual behavior is strongly
influenced by incentives. We do know that there are many logical regularities,
and we have enjoyed a steady accumulation of knowledge. We do know that
every sale involves a purchase and that obvious opportunities for profit are rarely
overlooked—the basic idea behind the theory that our securities markets are
remarkably efficient.
And as inexact as economic science may be, it has a direct impact on our lives
and it has a critical role to play in government policymaking. Economists
influence all branches of government. The tasks of promoting economic growth
and high employment while avoiding inflation have long been recognized as the
domain of government economists. Remember Bill Clinton’s most successful
campaign slogan during the 1992 election? “It’s the economy, stupid!”
Promoting competition and restraining monopolies (Justice Department),
limiting pollution (Environmental Protection Agency), and providing medical
care (Health and Human Services) are examples of major activities within
different cabinet departments that have crucially important economic
components. Indeed, it is hard to think of any political decisions, be they on
social, tax and expenditure, international, agricultural, or national security issues,
that do not have economic consequences. And however skeptical politicians may
be about the ability of economists to solve these problems, the economists’
advice is not ignored. Indeed, as John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “Practical
men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence,
are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who
hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of
a few years back.”
The influence of economists is also increasingly pervasive in the business and

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financial communities. Peter Lynch, the former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan
mutual fund, once opined that if you spent fourteen minutes talking to an
economist you would have wasted twelve minutes. Perhaps it is ironic that the
investment performance of professional mutual fund managers is now regularly
evaluated based on techniques developed by financial economists. Moreover,
economists influence countless other business decisions. They project product
demand for companies as diverse as General Motors and Procter & Gamble.
They are employed in large numbers by consulting firms engaged in business
tasks from strategic planning to inventory control. They help investment firms
fashion portfolios of securities by analyzing the tradeoffs between expected
return and risk. They advise chief financial officers of corporations on dividend
policy and on the effect of debt on the price of the firm’s common stock. In our
financial markets, option traders on the floors of the major options exchanges
carry hand-held computers programmed with an economic model to tell them the
prices at which they should trade put and call options. The fact is that economic
analysis is incredibly useful for investors and producers as well as for
government policymakers.
Ordinary consumers will also find that economics can illuminate many
perplexing everyday issues. Why is it so hard for individuals to buy health
insurance? Why do we stop at McDonald’s along a highway even though many
other establishments may make better hamburgers? Why do so many people
apply to “prestige” colleges even though many other institutions offer just as
good an education at far lower prices? Have you ever wondered what such
common terms as “adverse selection,” “public goods,” and “the prisoner’s
dilemma” have to do with everyday life? These are among the subjects treated in
this delightful book.
It’s often said that if you ask ten economists the same question you will get
ten different answers. But I’ll wager that if you asked ten economists why there
is a shortage of cabs and apartments in New York City, all ten would tell you
that limitations on the number of taxi medallions and rent control are what
restrict the supply of these goods and services. There are certainly many areas
where economists are in virtual unanimous agreement. Economists
overwhelmingly agree that free international trade can improve the standard of
living of the trading countries and that tariffs and import quotas reduce general
welfare. Economists generally agree that rent controls reduce the volume and
quality of housing. Economists were virtually unanimous in their forecast that
the horrific tragedy of September 11, 2001, would lead to a contraction of
economic activity. My own experience in government suggests that there is far
less difference in the views of economists (be they conservative Republicans or

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liberal Democrats) than there is between economists and those who come from
different disciplines. Economists of contrasting political views agree among
themselves on most issues. A bipartisan majority of economists is quite likely to
unite on the opposite side of a bipartisan coalition of politicians.
The reason, I believe, is that economists have a unique way of viewing the
world and thinking about how to solve problems. Thinking like an economist
involves chains of deductive reasoning in conjunction with simplified models
such as supply and demand. It involves identifying tradeoffs in the context of
constraints. It measures the cost of one choice in terms of the foregone benefits
of another. It involves the goal of efficiency—that is, getting the most out of
limited resources. It takes a marginalist or incremental approach. It asks how
much extra benefit can be achieved by incurring some extra cost. It recognizes
that resources have many diverse uses and that substitutions can be made among
different resources to achieve desired results. Finally, the economist has a
predilection to believe that welfare is increased by allowing individuals to make
their own choices and to argue that competitive markets are a particularly
efficient mechanism for giving expression to individual choices. And while all
economic problems involve normative issues (views about what should be),
thinking like an economist involves an analytical approach that usually abstracts
from or at least downplays “value” issues.
This gem of a book is both well balanced and extremely comprehensive. It
recognizes the benefits of the free market in making our lives better and shows
why centrally controlled economies ultimately fail to increase the living
standards of their citizens. At the same time it recognizes the crucial role of
government in creating the legal framework that makes markets possible and in
providing public goods. It also understands the role of government in correcting
situations when the free market creates undesirable externalities such as
environmental pollution or where private markets will fail to produce some of
the goods the country’s citizens desire.
Did you ever wonder why mohair farmers earned a subsidy from the federal
government for decades? Wheelan explains how politics and economics can lead
to such results. Do you really understand why Ben Bernanke is often referred to
as the second most powerful person in the United States? Wheelan demystifies
the effect of monetary policy on economic activity. Did you ever consider that
you never fully understood the final scene from the movie Trading Places when
the bad guys were wiped out in the commodities futures market? Wheelan makes
the theory of supply and demand completely accessible. Have you ever
wondered if the people who protest against globalization have a good point and
whether either the developed or developing nations would be better off with less

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economic integration? Wheelan will make the issues crystal-clear. When you
read the newspapers about disputes concerning current economic issues, are you
often perplexed and dismayed at the cacophony of competing arguments?
Wheelan parses the jargon and pierces the politics to lay bare the essential
issues. In so doing, he successfully transforms the dismal science into a lively
weaving of economics and politics into the fabric of national discourse and
policy.
Wheelan has produced a delightfully readable guide to economic literacy. By
boiling economics down to its essentials, he makes the reader a more informed
citizen who can better understand the major economic issues of the day. He
shows that economics can be explained without graphs, charts, and equations.
He demonstrates that economic analysis can be intensely interesting. The book
should provide a useful supplement for the college and high school basic course
on the economy. More important, it can stand on its own as an introduction to
the field that will change the views of those people who have rejected the study
of economics as incredibly tedious and terminally boring. I have often
considered writing a basic introduction to economics myself, but competing
projects always intervened. Had I done so, this is the book I would have wanted
to write.
BURTON G. MALKIEL