Ncrfc mission and Products

NCRFC Mission and Products

• NCRFC Mission and Products

• Forecast process

• Meteorological driving data
• Hydrologic model
• Daily Analysis
• Calibration

• September 2010 Forecasts

• NWS Products

NCRFC Mission and Products

• NCRFC Mission and Products

• Forecast process

• Meteorological data
• Hydrologic model
• Daily Analysis
• Calibration

• Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project

NCRFC Mission and Products

• NCRFC Mission and Products

• Forecast process

• Meteorological data
• Hydrologic model
• Daily Analysis
• Calibration

• Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project

NWSRFS – National Weather Service River Forecast System

• NWSRFS – National Weather Service River Forecast System

• Several models are run for each sub-watershed

• Snow accumulation & melt
• Soil moisture & runoff
• River routing
• Reservoirs

Models are analyzed and adjusted on a daily basis.

• Models are analyzed and adjusted on a daily basis.

• Goal: to accurately simulate streamflow while maintaining reasonable model states.

• Only make adjustments when necessary and justified.

Calibration period 1948-2004

• Calibration period 1948-2004

• Snow, soil moisture, routing, and reservoir models all require calibration

• “Subjective” function is how well we simulate the hydrograph at the outlet.

• Could be used to calibrate thresholds for this project.

: This product contains preliminary data that may be subject to revision.

• : This product contains preliminary data that may be subject to revision.

• : Refer to your local WFO for the latest official river forecast.

• :

• : North Central River Forecast Center, Chanhassen, MN

• :

• : Mon Nov 15 15:41:00 2010

• :

• : Wolf R New London Adj Flood Stage ft

• .E NEWW3 1114 Z DH18/DC1115/QRIP/DIH06 : 6-Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs)

• .E1 2.025/ 2.015/ 2.000/ 2.010/

• .E NEWW3 1115 Z DH18/DC1115/QRICB/DIH06 : 6-Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs)

• .E1 2.029/ 2.061/ 2.116/ 2.196/ 2.275/ 2.338/ 2.397/ 2.452/

• .E1 2.494/ 2.529/ 2.558/ 2.580/ 2.597/ 2.611/ 2.622/ 2.629/

• .E1 2.633/ 2.628/ 2.610/ 2.584/ 2.555/ 2.524/ 2.493/ 2.461/

• .E1 2.430/ 2.400/ 2.371/ 2.343/

• :

• : Little Wolf R Royalton Adj Flood Stage ft

• .E ROYW3 1114 Z DH18/DC1115/QRIP/DIH06 : 6-Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs)

• .E1 0.485/ 0.485/ 0.572/ 0.606/

• .E ROYW3 1115 Z DH18/DC1115/QRICB/DIH06 : 6-Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs)

• .E1 0.640/ 0.666/ 0.684/ 0.692/ 0.693/ 0.686/ 0.672/ 0.653/

• .E1 0.630/ 0.603/ 0.573/ 0.541/ 0.512/ 0.483/ 0.456/ 0.432/

• .E1 0.413/ 0.398/ 0.386/ 0.376/ 0.367/ 0.360/ 0.354/ 0.348/

• .E1 0.343/ 0.338/ 0.334/ 0.330/

NWS/North Central River Forecast Center

• NWS/North Central River Forecast Center

• [e-mail]

• 952-368-2540

• [e-mail]

• 952-368-2545