AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies www.
grnjournal.us 1.53
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LNYF
± 2 S.E.
Forecast: LNYF
Actual: LNY
Forecast sample: 2008 2020
Included observations: 13
Root Mean Squared Error
0.002732
Mean Absolute Error
0.002082
Mean Abs. Percent Error
0.132807
Theil Inequality Coefficient
0.000873
Bias Proportion
0.000000
Variance Proportion
0.006625
Covariance Proportion
0.993375
Theil U2 Coefficient
0.389150
Symmetric MAPE
0.132856
Figure 2. of parameter X2 and X3Result of MAPE and TIC criteria Figure 2 abovebased on the information providedSince MAPE=0.133<10 and
TIC=0.0009<1X1 and X2 parameters were proved to be significant. Now, the significance of the
regression equation based on the Fisher criterion is determined when α=0.05, k1=8; at
k2=3
𝐹
жад
=
8.81from the equality to .and from the equality according to the condition
𝐹
жад
<
𝐹
ҳисоб
𝐹
ҳисоб
= 111,7
Since DW=1.82 there is no autocorrelation(---)-regression equation defined
below:
𝐿𝑛𝑌 = 0,6752𝐿𝑛𝑋1 − 0,06𝐿𝑛𝑋2 − 0,24515𝐿𝑛𝑋3 + 0,284
(---)
is reliable and adequate, this (---)-regression equation is exponentiated to get rid of the logarithm,
and the (---)-regression equation becomes:
𝑌 =
𝑋1
0,6752
∗𝑒
0,284
𝑋2
0,06
∗𝑋3
0,24515
(--) If we give an economic explanation to this (--)-regression equation, if today the production
costs in the enterprise are 100 mln. if it is increased to 334,000 soums, the efficiency of
management will be increased by 334,000 soums, which, in turn, requires the company to revise
the future cost estimates and search for optimal cost options. Also, it was determined that if the
consumption of energy and raw materials in the enterprise is reduced by 100 million, the
management efficiency of the enterprise will increase by an additional 189,000 soums. If we make
a general conclusion based on the obtained results, taking into account the fact that raw materials
are limiting the possibility of working at full capacity at the enterprise, it is appropriate to revise
the economic cooperation agreements in the management of the enterprise and develop measures
for the seasonal organization of production.
Defined above"Fergana oil-oil" JSCwas a model for determining management efficiency:
𝑌 =
𝑋3
0,35
∗𝑒
1,4
𝑋1
0,01
∗𝑋2
0,01445
