Day 13
You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 1-13, which are based on Reading
Passage 1 below.
Temperature rising
The impact of global warming on tourism industry
The tourism industry depends to a large extent on good weather. The past few years have
brought intense hurricanes, typhoons, torrential rains, heat waves and droughts. According
to the World
Meteorological Organization, 2004 was the fourth hottest year on record.
And while global warming, defined as human-driven climate change traced to the burning
of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas, cannot be blamed for single-handedly
wreaking such havoc, the scientific consensus is that it may intensify some weather
events. For example, meteorologists attribute the back-to-back hurricanes in 2004 to a
50-to-70-year natural cycle of increased hurricane activity. But hurricanes tend to become
even more formidable on a warmer globe. Bill MacCracken,
a scientist at the Climate
Institute in Washington DC, likens the present climate to a pot of slowly boiling water on a
stove. If you turn up the flame, you get more bubbles, but you can’t attribute one particular
bubble to the increase in heat. He says, 'W e’re slowly going to be getting more extreme
weather, but we can’t say that any particular type of weather is due to the changing
climate.”
Tourism companies worldwide are starting to feel the financial effects of weather change.
In Scotland, higher winter temperatures have led several ski areas to diversify into summer
leisure pursuits such as golf, and paragliding in the winter. A similar scenario is taking
place in the European Alps.
Robert Mills, of the United States Tourism Association, reports
that in the upper Midwest of the United States, cooler summers and warmer winters have
resulted in resort owners having to restrict outdoor sports such as swimming in lakes and
ice fishing. And in the west of the United States, intense forest fires in recent years have
limited public access to national and state parks. For the tourism industry,
which generated
US$578 billion in 2002, or seven percent of the world’s economy, the costs of extreme
weather are high. Last year was the most expensive on record for the insurance side
of the industry. “Weather and tourism go hand in hand” says Tim Warren, an adventure
business consultant based in California. “If the weather is not co-operating, the impacts on
profits are very real.”
One of the most impacted areas is the diving industry, whose very survival
depends on the
health of coral reefs. The Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network reports that 20 percent of
the world’s reefs have been effectively destroyed by factors such as pollution, overfishing,
diseases, and bleaching- the last directly related to a rise in water temperatures that
essentially heats coral until it sheds algae that feed it, leaving it colorless. Even Australia’s
Great Barrier Reef, with its 400 species of coral spanning 1,240 miles, hasn’t been spared.
Reading Passage 1
Scientists estimate that bleaching has affected significant areas of the Great Barrier Reef.
“We hear tourists say, ‘this doesn’t look like the postcard or as it did three years ago’, “says
John Rumney, manager of Undersea Explorer, a dive and research vessel that operates
out of Queensland in Australia.
The ski industry has also felt the effects of climate change. A 2003
report by Brendan
Stark, of the Global Environmental Program (GEP), predicted that downhill skiing could
Disappear altogether at low-altitude resorts such as Kitzbuhel in Austria. Snowfall in the
New England has decreased by 15 percent since 1953 and, perhaps more significantly,
there are seven fewer days per annum with snow on the ground here than there were fifty
years ago. While there is no concrete evidence that the warming in New England is due
to the emissions of greenhouse gases, many scientists in the United States believe it is
consistent with global warming. The ski industry has made great efforts to downplay the
impact of climate change. However, less snow and more variable temperatures have had
disastrous consequences for many smaller ski operators, who can only open for business
when snow is on the ground. According to
Michael Berry, president of the Denver-based
National Ski Areas Association, ‘the reason why some small ski resorts aren’t around any
more is because they decided they could not afford to install snow-making systems.” The
best snowmaking in the world won’t save the industry if current trends continue.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made up of some 2,000 scientists,
estimates a rise of between two and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. As a result, GEP
forecasts that the ski and tourism industry in Switzerland, for example, could eventually
lose up to US1.6 billion annually. The outlook for other travel destinations is not much
brighter. Scientists feel polar bears will die out within the next hundred years or so.
James
Wilson, of the Planet Travel Club, believes that in just 20 to 30 years, if people have not
already had the opportunity to see the snows of Mt Kilimanjaro in Tanzania or visit the low-
lying Maldive Island of the Indian Ocean, it will be too late because they will have gone too.
Kyoto’s climate treaty, signed by more than 100 countries, required industrialized nations
to reduce greenhouse gases by at least five percent. It is a step towards slowing the trend,
but clearly much larger strides are necessary if the travel industry hopes to become less
affected by the impact of global warming.