Residential Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Algeria
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Table 6. Granger causality test.
Dependant Variable Short Run Analysis Long Run Analysis Delec Dimp Dp Dy ECM t−1 Delec ‐ 11.89 *** 7.53 ** 7.75 ** 0.037 *** Dimp 2.29
‐ 2.30
3.47 0.027
Dp 1.31
1.35 ‐ 2.34 0.016 Dy 2.04 15.35*** 2.30 ‐
Note: The values in the table are obtained from the Wald test based on the chi‐square distribution. *** and ** denote statistical significance at the 1% and 5%, respectively. -15 -10
-5 0 5 10 15 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 CUSUM 5% Significance -0.4 -0.2
0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8 1.0
1.2 1.4
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance
Graphs of the stability test on the residual of Equation (4). 4.5. Granger Causality Test Table
6 shows the results of the short-run and long-run Granger causality test between elec, y, p and imp variables. According to the Wald test based on the chi-square distribution, the short run Granger causality test shows that GDP causes the residential electricity consumption (Dy → Delec), the electricity price causes the residential electricity consumption (Dp → Delec), and imports of goods and services cause the residential electricity consumption (Dimp → Delec) and economic growth (Dimp → Dy). There is Energies 2018, 11, 1656 12 of 18
no evidence to support residential energy use causing GDP. In the long run, there is evidence of causal relationships, from GDP, prices, and imports on residential energy consumption. In addition, the results show that electricity prices are determined neither by GDP nor residential electricity consumption. In this sense, it is worth noting that the Algerian government continues to subsidize and administer all energy prices.
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