Aspects of Hydrocarbon Insecurity in the Eastern Mediterranean: Maritime Claims, Access, and Quest for Energy Resources

Keywords: Mediterranean, Security, Energy, Conflict, Delimitation, Hydrocarbon, EEZ, UNCLOS

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   Introduction
   

In an increasingly multipolar world, the perceived insecurity in the Eastern Mediterranean is sustained by intractable conflicts that draw local, regional, and global actors into a quagmire. The region borders the most tumultuous neighborhood in the world – the Middle East – often referred to by ethnic, religious, and sectarian confrontations. Situated in a geopolitical hotspot marked by uncertainty, economic stagnation, social cleavages, religious strife, and civil unrest it is a stage of shifting power play of partnerships, where countries suffer from influx of refugees, domestic violence, terrorism, and power struggles of various types if not outright hostility. The pursuit of power politics in this war of “all against all” culminates itself in an anarchic order. In particular, competing parties involved in the so-called Arab Spring and the ensuing intense Syrian civil war created a disaster of colossal magnitude on multiple fronts. The region seems to be more fragmented than ever with diverse national and transnational interests competing to gain influence.

Inextricably linked to long-standing confrontations over the region, discovery of offshore hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean sparked a new dispute over delimitation of maritime zones, due to a competition over rights to exploit rich energy resources and to exert political influence for furtherance of national interests. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the Levant basin houses 1.7 billion barrels of oil and 2 trillion m³ of natural gas, according to more realistic recent findings, that could meet the regional demand and be available for export to the outside world for 20-25 years.¹ Nevertheless, the blessing of hydrocarbon wealth might often turn into curse,² as seen in other parts of the world, the consequence of which is that the struggle for power to access, explore, and exploit resources exacerbates rather than abates existing tensions among littoral states, especially in the face of volatile energy prices. The question is the ability of the current international order to absorb and regulate maritime disputes to address hydrocarbon insecurity in the region.

Since seas are lifeblood of the world economy and the Mediterranean is situated on a crucial trade route between Europe, Asia, and Africa, emphasis has mounted on maritime security operations to protect energy infrastructure, free-flow of global maritime commerce, and hard-power instruments to meet challenges from potential adversaries. This research finds that notions of national sovereignty, territorial claims, and maritime boundaries are prioritized over inclusive, long-term planning, thus hindering the ability to assess the cumulative impact on security and sustainable development. Availability of political, economic, and military instruments to equitably resolve disputes over access to energy resources is limited in the context of multiple parties that have diverging interests within delicate power-balancing maneuvers. By unbundling the question about access to off-shore hydrocarbons, it addresses a gap in the literature on the role of religions, traditions, and culture in multi-issue, multi-party negotiations. Entrenched, positional bargaining in a zero-sum game, whether be it involving religious, nationalist, or realpolitik elements, impairs productive dialogue, although in essence no one nation is big enough to be able to address the whole problem.³ There is a short window of opportunity for dialogue that parties do not seem to be in grasp of. Therefore, an integrated maritime strategy can help to address the fixed-pie nature of border disputes, outline a comprehensive plan to improve governance for energy security, environment, piracy, refugee flows, and wider forms of maritime crime. This vital initiative can provide a sustainable and long-term solution as an alternative to reliance on each individual nation’s military strength in the Mediterranean.⁴

In the next section, the article lays out the background of Middle Eastern politics and describes competing views on the roots of conflict among, between, and within modern nation-states, non-state armed groups, and quasi-state structures. Part three looks at rules of engagement in asymmetric conflicts of modern day and the role, or lack thereof, manifested in supranational organizations to mediate conflicts. Specifically, this section maps security challenges to the regional order through the lens of alliances and rivalries. Part four depicts the new power balance consequent to shifting play of partnerships among state actors in the Eastern Mediterranean and efforts to delineate maritime zones for exploiting offshore hydrocarbon deposits. Part five examines possible avenues to confront insecurity emerging from the regional standoff and means for resolution to maritime disputes. Part six summarizes findings and draws conclusions.

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