History of MosquitoBorne Disease Modeling, 18971969
Papers have been colorcoded as follows:

Mosquitoborne pathogen modeling papers are in red.

Advances in measuring transmission are in orange.

Some historically important mathematical and epidemiological papers are in blue.

Nonmodeling papers of historical interest are in black.
NOTE: This annotated bibliography also has a list of references, including some papers published much later that are referenced in the annotation. Many early papers were published several times, and republications of mosquitoborne pathogen modeling papers have been included here and discussed, for completeness. The annotation clarifies the history of publication.
Annotated Bibliography
1766 Bernoulli D. Essai d’une nouvelle analyse de la mortalité causée par la petite vérole. Mém Sci Math Phys Acad Roy Paris.
1855 Snow J. On the mode of communication of cholera.
1879 Manson P. On the development of Filaria sanguinis hominis, and on the mosquito considered as a nurse.
1889 En'ko P. On the course of epidemics of some infectious diseases.
1897 Ross R. On some Peculiar Pigmented Cells Found in Two Mosquitos Fed on Malarial Blood.
“On August 16^{th} eight of them [mosquitoes] were fed on a patient whose blood contained fair to few crescents (and also filariae)… The seventh insect was killed on August 20^{th}, four days after being fed. On turning to the stomach with an oil immersion, I was struck with the appearance of some cells which seemed to be slightly more substantial than the cells of the mosquito’s stomach usually are…. Each of these bodies contained a few granules of black pigment absolutely identical in appearance with the wellknown and characteristic pigment of the parasite malaria… In some cases, they showed rapid oscillations within a small range but did not change their position.
1899 Ross R. Inaugural Lecture on the Possibility of Extirpating Malaria from Certain Localities by a New Method.
Ross still calls mosquitoes “gnats.”
“It will be observed that the practicability of eradicating malaria in a locality by the extermination of the dangerous mosquitoes in it depends on a single question – Do these mosquitos breed in spots sufficiently isolated and rare to be dealt with by public measures of repression?”
“…the question can be decided only by experiment; and the experiment is well worth making.”
“A strong argument to the same effect may be adduced from the general laws of distribution of malaria. The disease is never uniformly distributed even in small areas. Isolated spots, individual plantations or barracks or villages, even single houses, are often known to be more malarious than their surroundings. This argues not only that malaria is not due to the common mosquitos which are found almost every where, but that it is caused by mosquitos which have a distribution similar to that of the disease whose haunts are also comparatively rare and isolated.”
Ross R. Extermination of Malaria.
“a single small puddle may supply the dangerous mosquitoes containing several square miles containing a crowded population.”
[Ross R]*.The Malaria Expedition to Sierra Leone.
*Published from “a correspondent.” Ross later acknowledged authorship.
[Ross R]*. The Malaria Expedition to Sierra Leone: MosquitoBorne Fever at Wilberforce.
[Ross R]*. The Malaria Expedition to Sierra Leone: Anopheles and its Habits Malarious Foci Localised.
[Ross R]*.The Malaria Expedition to Sierra Leone: Habits of Anopheles Continued.Possibility of Extirpation.Explanation of the Old Laws of Malaria.
Ross R. Life history of the parasites of malaria.
1900 Ross R, Annett HE, Austen EE. Report of the Malaria Expedition of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and Medical Parasitology.
The report contains a long discussion of the bionomics of Anopheles mosquitoes (Ross still calls them gnats). A discussion of disease prevention starts on page 37. Ross lists bednets, swatting, repellants, clothing, and the use of fans and screens among other risk factors. On page 40, he discusses attack on the mosquito in its aquatic habitat. In the next section, he discusses the prospects of success in terms of the number of pools and their accessibility.
Reed W, Carroll J, Agramonte A, Lazear JW. The etiology of yellow fever—a preliminary note.
1901 MacGregor W, Ross R, Young JM, Fearnside CF. A Discussion On Malaria And Its Prevention.
MacGregor discusses the use of quinine, mosquito netting, and attack on mosquitoes as measures of control.
“There is probably only one really accurate method by which we can determine the degree of malaria in a given locality, and that is by ascertaining the average time in which a newcomer becomes infected.”
Reed W, Carroll J, Agramonte A. The etiology of yellow fever: An additional note. JAMA.
Reed W, Carroll J: The Prevention of Yellow Fever.
1902 Ross R. Mosquito brigades and how to organize them.
“It will be scarcely more easy to gauge the decrease in the number of mosquitoes than to gauge that of malaria.” He suggests using a mosquito trap.
Ross R. Researches on malaria.
Ross’s Nobel Lecture. Reprinted in 1967 .
1903 Ross R. The thick film process for the detection of organisms in the blood.
Ross explains the “thick film” technique for identifying parasites.
Ross R. An improved method for the microscopical diagnosis of intermittent fever.
1904 Ross R. The antimalarial experiment at Mian Mir.
Ross’s essay is part 3 of a longer debate about a large experiment that had been conducted in Mian Mir .
Ross presents a costeffectiveness argument, that malaria was far more expensive than the meager investment “a sum of this magnitude … which for economical reasons may be spent on banishing the disease there.”
Ross’s arguments: “it might not have continued long enough and that the radius of operations might not have been large enough” is a precursor to the model that appeared later that year. The last two paragraphs lay out the case for it:
“…the broad principles which govern the prophylaxis of malaria… though selfevident enough, require a more or less mathematical treatment for their formal demonstration. The logical basis of the great measure of mosquito reduction is absolute. There is no doubt whatever that in any locality we can reduce mosquitoes to any percentage we please, provided that we arrest their propagation to a sufficient degree within a sufficient radius. This proposition, like the multiplication table, does not require experimental proof and is incapable of disproof.”
“Experiment is required, not in support of the general principle, but only in order to obtain certain unknown constants. We still have to determine (a) the radius of operations required to reduce the density of a given species of mosquito to a given percentage: and (b) the percentage of mosquito reduction required in order to obtain ultimately a given percentage of malaria reduction. But experiments directed to this end must be of a true scientific quality; they must be prefaced by a mathematical inquiry and be executed by means of rigid tests applied by the brain as well as by the hand.”
Ross R: The logical basis of the sanitary policy of mosquito reduction.
Following up on the critique of the experiment at Mian Mir, this manuscript describes the 1^{st} mathematical model of any sort applied to a mosquitotransmitted pathogen. The model describes diffusive movement of adult mosquitoes and the distribution of adult mosquitoes after the removal of larval habitats. There is some flexibility in citing this article because it was also published twice in almost identical form in 1905: in Science and the BMJ. The 1904 reference comes from the bibliography of Fine.
1905 Brownlee J. Statistical Studies in Immunity. Smallpox and Vaccination.
1906 Bancroft TL: On the aetiology of dengue fever.
Hamer W. The evidence of variability and of persistency of type.
Hamer WH. The Milroy lectures on epidemic disease in England.
1907 Ross R. The prevention of malaria in British possessions, Egypt, and parts of America.
A nice summary of early larval control efforts. Ross also describes his motives for writing his first mathematical model.
Brownlee J. Statistical Studies in Immunity: The Theory of an Epidemic.
1908 Ross R. Report on the prevention of Malaria in Mauritius.
Available as pdf from Google Books. The 1^{st} malaria transmission model. This model was analyzed by Waite , and again by Lotka . For a more recent historical commentary see Fine .
1909 Ross R: Report on the Prevention of Malaria in Mauritius. 2^{nd} edn.
Brownlee J. Certain Considerations on the Causation and Course of Epidemics.
Ross R. Malaria in Greece.
1910 Ross R: The prevention of malaria.
There was also an American edition. Sections 2728 (pp 153164) describe the model (pp. 153164). In section 31, “The Measurement of Malaria,” Ross comes back to the model. In 31.9 (pp 235240), he discusses variation in prevalence with respect to age and includes a plot of agestratified prevalence with the canonical shape. In 31.10 (pp. 240242), he uses the model to reason through estimation of the inoculation rate. In section 33 (pp 254257), Ross uses his mathematical model to reason through control. In section 39 (pp. 296298), Ross argues that malaria can be “eradicated” if the control measures are “reduced to a certain figure; that is, if the new infections can no longer keep pace with the natural recoveries.”
Ross R, Thomson D. Some enumerative studies on malaria fever.
A landmark study relating parasite densities to febrile events, repeated many times since.
Waite H: Mosquitoes and Malaria. A Study of the Relation between the Number of Mosquitoes in a Locality and the Malaria Rate.
“The ratio of the number of persons affected with malaria to the total population of a district at a given time is called the Malaria Rate of the district at that time. In general, the rate is continually changing owing to (a) new infections, (b) recoveries, (c) emigration and immigration, (d) the birth and death rates, and (e) the extent to which cases are isolated, as well as owing to changes in the mosquito population.
As emigration and immigration vary considerably in different localities, and in the same locality at different times, their influence on the malaria rate cannot be satisfactorily dealt with except in particular cases where the necessary statistics are available; neither would results in general terms be of much practical use.”
Of special note is the postscript, which discusses how his results differ from those of Ross, including the following excerpt: “The principal points of agreement are: (a) for a given number of anophelines per unit of the population the number of malaria cases will gradually rise or fall to a fixed value at which it will remain stationary,and (b) when the anophelines are less than a certain number (about forty per unit of the population) there can be no stable condition and the malaria cases will gradually decrease and finally disappear.”
“The divergence seems to be chiefly due to the difference in the time units employed in the two methods of treatment. Professor Ross has used the month throughout and has taken the value of m constant during each month, while I have used the average time between two consecutive infecting bites as my unit. The fact that m is increased by unity each time a healthy person is bitten by an infected mosquito and is continually being diminished owing to recoveries, fully justifies, in my opinion, the adoption of this unit.”
1911 Ross R: The prevention of malaria. 2^{nd} edn.
London: John Murray. In the addendum to this edition, Ross presents the 2^{nd} malaria transmission model.
Ross R: Some quantitative studies in epidemiology.
1912 Lotka A. Quantitative studies in epidemiology.
1914 McKendrick AG. Studies on the theory of continuous probabilities, with special reference to its bearing on natural phenomena of a progressive nature.
1915 Brownlee J. On the curve of the epidemic.
Ross R: Some a priori Pathometric Equations.
McKendrick AG: The epidemiological significance of repeated infections and relapses.
1916 Ross R: An application to the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry. Part I.
Brownlee J. On the curve of the epidemic. Supplementary note.
McKendrick A. Applications of the kinetic theory of gases to vital phenomena.
1917 Ross R, Hudson H: An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry. Part II.
Ross R, Hudson H: An application of the theory of probabilities to the study of a priori pathometry. Part III.
1918 Brownlee J. An investigation into the periodicity of measles epidemics in London from 1703 to the present day by the method of the periodogram.
1919 McKendrick AG. Theory of invasion by infective agents.
1920 Brownlee J. An investigation into the periodicity of measles epidemics in the different districts of London for the years 18901912.
McKendrick A. Statistics of Valour and Service.
1921 Ross R: The principle of repeated medication for curing infections.
Martini E: Berechnungen und Beobachtungen zur Epidemiologie und Bekämpfung der Malaria.
Lotka wrote a note in Nature about the equations in 1923.
1922 Brownlee J, Young M. The epidemiology of summer diarrhoea.
1923 Lotka A. Contributions to the analysis of malaria epidemiology.
Lotka AJ: Contributions to the analysis of malaria epidemiology. I. General part.
Lotka AJ: Contributions to the analysis of malaria epidemiology. II. General part (continued). Comparison of two formulae given by Sir Ronald Ross.
Lotka AJ: Contributions to the analysis of malaria epidemiology. III. Numerical part.
Sharpe FR, Lotka AJ: Contributions to the analysis of malaria epidemiology. IV. Incubation lag.
Lotka AJ: Contributions to the analysis of malaria epidemiology. V. Summary.
Lotka A: Martini's equations for the epidemiology of immunising diseases.
1926 McKendrick AG: Applications of mathematics to medical problems.
Macdonald G: Malaria in the children of Freetown, Sierra Leone.
1927 Kermack WO, McKendrick AG: A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.
The three papers by Ross and Hudson are acknowledged on the 7^{th} line and cited in the bibliography.
1928 Ross R: Studies on malaria.
1929 Ross R: Constructive Epidemiology.
1931 Ross R, Hudson HP: A priori pathometry.
This “book” is a bound copy of the threepart series by Ross and Hudson from 19161917 on a priori pathometry
1932 Kermack KO, McKendrick AG: Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics  ii. The problem of endemicity.
1933 Davey TH, Gordon RM: The estimation of the density of infective anophelines as a method of calculating the relative risk of inoculation with malaria from different species or in different localities.
This is not a modeling paper, but it is one of the first papers to compare metrics of transmission side by side. In section II (pages 2930), the paper acknowledges Ross and Waite in promoting the quantitative approach to malaria epidemiology. Macdonald analyzes this data in 1950.
Kermack KO, McKendrick AG: Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics  iii. Further studies of the problem of endemicity.
1934 Muench H. Derivation of rates from summation data by the catayltic curve.
1936 Martini ECW: Wege der Seuchen.
Muench H. The probability distribution of protection test results.
1937 Kermack WO, McKendrick AG. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics: IV. Analysis of experimental epidemics of the virus disease mouse ectromelia.
1939 Earle WC, Pérez M, del Río J, Arzola C. Observations on the course of naturally acquired malaria in Puerto Rico.
Kermack WO, McKendrick AG. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics: V. Analysis of experimental epidemics of mousetyphoid; a bacterial disease conferring incomplete immunity.
1947 Walton GA: On the control of malaria in Freetown, Sierra Leone. I. Plasmodium falciparum and Anopheles gambiae in relation to malaria occurring in infants.
This article presents a correct formula for the distribution of the number of concurrent infections (i.e. the multiplicity of infection), the first mathematical consideration of superinfection for malaria.
1950 Macdonald G: The analysis of infection rates in diseases in which superinfection occurs.
This was Macdonald’s first and only time that Macdonald presents a dynamic equation. Several articles have described a discrepancy in the mathematics, and few have adopted Macdonald’s formulation here, but it remains of historical interest.
Macdonald G: The analysis of malaria parasite rates in infants.
This was published back to back with the model on superinfection. They were intended to be published as a pair. Macdonald’s landmark paper that presents an estimate of the duration of the infectious period found by following a cohort of infectious people, and it also presents analysis of several agestratified crosssectional prevalence surveys to obtain an estimate of the force of infection, which was compared to the estimated entomological inoculation rate.
1951 Macdonald G: Community aspects of immunity to malaria.
1952 Macdonald G: The analysis of the sporozoite rate.
Macdonald assembled data to examine the dynamics of infection in mosquitoes, including estimates of the druation of the extrinsic incubation period as a function of temperature for both P. falciparum and P. vivax and estimates of the longevity of mosquitoes.
Macdonald G: The analysis of equilibrium in malaria.
This paper follows up on the previous publication and uses the logic of the previous paper to define the “basic reproduction rate” of malaria for the first time.
1953 Macdonald G: The analysis of malaria epidemics.
Macdonald G, Davidson G: Dose and cycle of insecticide applications in the control of malaria.
Armitage P: A note on the epidemiology of malaria.
Davidson G, Draper CC: Field studies of some of the basic factors concerned in the transmission of malaria.
Draper CC, Davidson G: A new method of estimating the survivalrate of anopheline mosquitoes in nature.
1954 Davidson G. Estimation of the survivalrate of anopheline mosquitoes in nature.
Gillies MT. The recognition of agegroups within populations of Anopheles gambiae by the pregravid rate and the sporozoite rate.
1955 Macdonald G. The measurement of malaria transmission.
Macdonald G: A new approach to the epidemiology of malaria.
Davidson G. Further studies of the basic factors concerned in the transmission of malaria.
1956 Macdonald G: Theory of the eradication of malaria.
Macdonald G: Epidemiological basis of malaria control.
Sensitivity of transmission intensity to adult longevity, and the effect size of adult mosquito control with contact pesticides.
1957 W.H.O. Expert Committee on Malaria, Sixth Report.
Macdonald G: The epidemiology and control of malaria.
Bailey NTJ: The mathematical theory of epidemics.
1959 Macdonald G: The dynamics of resistance to insecticides by Anophelines.
Muench H: Catalytic models in epidemiology.
1961 Macdonald G: Epidemiologic models in studies of vectorborne diseases.
1964 GarrettJones C: The Human Blood Index of Malaria Vectors in Relation to Epidemiological Assessment.
The term “vectorial capacity” and its formula were first derived here.
GarrettJones C: Prognosis for interruption of malaria transmission through assessment of the mosquito's vectorial capacity.
GarrettJones C, Grab B: The Assessment of Insecticidal Impact on the Malaria Mosquito's Vectorial Capacity, from Data on the Proportion of Parous Females
Macdonald G, Göeckel GW: The malaria parasite rate and interruption of transmission.
Moshkovsky S. The dynamics of malaria eradication.
1965 Macdonald G. Eradication of Malaria.
1967 Moškovskij SD: A further contribution to the theory of malaria eradication.
1968 Macdonald G, Cuellar CB, Foll CV: The dynamics of malaria.
GarrettJones C. Epidemiological entomology and its application to malaria.
1969 GarrettJones C, Shidrawi GR: Malaria vectorial capacity of a population of Anopheles gambiae: an exercise in epidemiological entomology.
1980 Onori E, Grab B. Indicators for the forecasting of malaria epidemics.
1969 BruceChwatt LJ: Quantitative epidemiology of tropical diseases.
1975 Fine PEM. Ross's a priori pathometry  a perspective.
Fine PEM: Superinfection  a problem in formulating a problem
1976 BruceChwatt LJ: Swellengrebel oration: mathematical models in the epidemiology and control of malaria.
1977 BruceChwatt L. Ronald Ross, William Gorgas, and Malaria Eradication.
1978 Service MW. A short history of early medical entomology.
1979 Fine P. John Brownlee and the measurement of infectiousness: an historical study in epidemic theory.
1982 Bailey NTJ: The biomathematics of malaria.
Aron JL, May RM. The population dynamics of malaria.
1985 Nedelman J: Some New Thoughts About Some Old Malaria Models  Introductory Review.
Molineaux L: The pros and cons of modelling malaria transmission.
1988 Dietz K: Mathematical models for transmission and control of malaria. In Principles and Practice of Malaria.
Dietz K. The first epidemic model: A historical note on PD En'ko.
1991 Koella JC: On the use of mathematical models of malaria transmission.
Anderson RM, May RM. Mathematical Epidemiology.
1993 Dietz K: The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases.
2000 McKenzie FE: Why model malaria?
Dobson MJ, Malowany M, Snow RW. Malaria control in East Africa: the Kampala Conference and the PareTaveta Scheme: a meeting of common and high ground.
2004 McKenzie FE, Samba EM: The role of mathematical modeling in evidencebased malaria control.
Smith DL, McKenzie FE. Statics and dynamics of malaria infection in Anopheles mosquitoes.
2008 Silver JB. Mosquito Ecology: Field Sampling Methods. 3^{rd} ed.
References
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2. Snow J (1855) On the mode of communication of cholera. London: John Churchill.
3. Manson P (1879) On the development of Filaria sanguinis hominis, and on the mosquito considered as a nurse. J Linn Soc London, ZooI 14: 304311.
4. En'ko P (1989) On the course of epidemics of some infectious diseases. International journal of epidemiology.
5. Ross R (1897) On some peculiar pigmented cells found in two mosquitos fed on malarial blood. British Medical Journal 2: 17861788.
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9. (1899) The Malaria Expedition to Sierra Leone: MosquitoBorne Fever at Wilberforce. British Medical Journal 2: 746.
10. (1899) The Malaria Expedition to Sierra Leone: Anopheles and its Habits Malarious Foci Localised. British Medical Journal 2: 869871.
11. (1899) The Malaria Expedition to Sierra Leone: Habits of Anopheles Continued.Possibility of Extirpation.Explanation of the Old Laws of Malaria. British Medical Journal 2: 10331035.
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