Peculiarities of modern forecasting in foreign countries

Peculiarities of modern forecasting in foreign countries.

Teacher: Sh. Abdullayeva student: Xabibullayev

Subject-specific study plans

1.Types of forecasts

2. Wide spread forecasting methods in the world.

• 3. Forecasting methods

One of the theoretically important problems of economic forecasting is the structure of types of forecasts. Types – can be created based on various criteria and characteristics. For example, objects, forecasting methods, problems to be solved, tasks, etc. The most important of these include:

Scope of forecasting;

Scope of forecasting;

forecast period;

the nature of the object;

• forecast functions (functional symbol).

Time series forecasting occurs when you make scientific predictions based on historical time stamped data. It involves building models through historical analysis and using them to make observations and drive future strategic decision-making.

Moving Average Moving average involves taking the average—or weighted average—of previous periods⁠ to forecast the future. This method involves more closely examining a business’s high or low demands, so it’s often beneficial for short-term forecasting. For example, you can use it to forecast next month’s sales by averaging the previous quarter.

Moving average forecasting can help estimate several metrics. While it’s most commonly applied to future stock prices, it’s also used to estimate future revenue. To calculate a moving average, use the following formula: A1 + A2 + A3 … / N Formula breakdown: A = Average for a period N = Total number of periods Using weighted averages to emphasize recent periods can increase the accuracy of moving average forecasts.

Trend projection model The trend projection model works best in situations where you could work out the future influence of certain variables (dependent or independent) based on its past behavior. The model examines past events in order to identify patterns and trends that could recur FreQuently

Trend projection can be used to forecast future activity since it considers that all factors involved in past trends will continue in the future as well. The model requires long and reliable time-series data which is arranged in chronological order for evaluation. By identifying the patterns of trends, the company will be able to get a vision of the future. Consequently, once the trend has been identified, it will be able to predict future demand.

Forecasting is estimating the magnitude of uncertain future events and providing different results with different assumptions. Top forecasting methods include Qualitative Forecasting (Delphi Method, Market Survey, Executive Opinion, Sales Force Composite) and Quantitative Forecasting (Time Series and Associative Models). Not all methods would necessarily serve the purpose of forecasting, the decision-makers should understand what type is best suited for the business.

Top 6 Methods of Forecasting

#1 – Delphi Method The agreement of a group of experts in consensus is required to conclude in the Delphi method. This method involves a discussion between experts on a given problem or situation. An argument or brainstorming is done to complete that everyone involved in the debate agrees to.

#2 – Market Survey In a market survey, interviews and surveys of customers are made to understand the task of the customer and tap the trend well in advance to deliver the right product or service according to the changing needs of the customer.

#3 – Executive Opinion As the name suggests, the executives or managers are involved in such forecasting. This method is very similar to the Delphi method; however, the only difference here is that the executives may or may not be experts of the matter in question, albeit they have the experience to understand the problem or situation and formulate a forecasting method that would bring out the best possible result

#4 – Sales Force Composite The information and intuition of the salesperson determine the needs of the customer and estimate the sales in the particular region or area assigned to the salesperson. This information is vital in forecasting the needs of the customer, which can be used to make necessary changes in the business to meet the needs of the customer and identify the sales volumes beforehand.

#5 – Time Series Models Time series models look at historical data and identify patterns in the past data to arrive at a point in the future based on these historical values. Since the historical data has a pattern, it becomes evident that the data in the future should also have a pattern, and this method looks at cracking the pattern in the future so that there is very little deviance from the actual calculations and the outcomes in the real world. Below is the example of a time series model