|
3. Results
Based on the theoretical framework and the interrelated nature of armed conflict and antiquities
looting, this research tested three hypotheses (below). The data measure reports of looting incidents
and incidents of armed conflict in Egypt for each month between January 1997 and December 2014.
However, because most months prior to 2010 experienced no reports of looting incidents, the monthly
analyses only include data from January 2010 to December 2014, which covers the entirety of the
Arab Spring and “Lotus Revolution” (
Teijgeler 2013
). To assess the sensitivity of the results to this
time period, further analyses were conducted at the quarter level, which included data for the entire
time period (1997–2014).
Marcellino
(
1999
) and
Pierse and Snell
(
1995
) note that aggregating temporal
data to a larger unit of analysis (e.g., from the month to the quarter) has no effect on the presence or
nature of a relationship, but that differences in the time span considered can affect whether a long-term
relationship is detected. As such, conducting analyses at the quarter level may identify relationships
that cannot be detected in the monthly analysis due to the shorter time period. Results from both the
month and quarter analyses are presented here.
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