Does afta create More Trade for Thailand? An Investigation of Some Key Trade Indicators

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Journal of Current 

Southeast Asian Affairs 

 

 

 

 

Pholphirul, Piriya (2010), 

Does AFTA Create More Trade for Thailand? An Investigation of Some Key Trade 

Indicators, in: 

Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 

29, 1, 51-78. 

ISSN: 1868-4882 (online), ISSN: 1868-1034 (print) 

 

The online version of this article can be found at: 

 

 

 

Published by 

GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Institute of Asian Studies and 

Hamburg University Press. 

 

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Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs

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includes: Africa Spectrum • Journal of Current Chinese Affairs • Journal of Current 

Southeast Asian Affairs • Journal of Politics in Latin America •  

 

 

 

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„„„

Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs 1/2010:

 

51-78

„„„

Does AFTA Create More Trade for Thailand? 

An Investigation of Some Key Trade 

Indicators

Piriya Pholphirul

Abstract: This paper examines whether the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement 

(“AFTA”) creates trade for Thailand or actually diverts it away from the 

country. It does this by analyzing various trade indicators: the Export 

Similarity Index, the Intra-Industry Trade Index, and Revealed Comparative 

Advantage (RCA) rank correlation. By examining the patterns of trade 

between Thailand and other members of ASEAN, it reveals a high degree of 

similarity regarding the trade structure between Thailand and AFTA, which 

indicates that there will be fewer trade-creation benefits from AFTA and a 

greater likelihood of trade diversion once the AFTA scheme has been fully 

implemented. This similarity pattern explains the reasons for future collabo-

ration among member countries and supportive arguments for the future 

extension of ASEAN (“ASEAN+”). Market-penetration and development 

strategies should be employed by Thai exporters when accessing the 

ASEAN market. 

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Manuscript received October 30, 2009; accepted February 22, 2010