Does afta create More Trade for Thailand? An Investigation of Some Key Trade Indicators
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Year Thai- land Indo- nesia Malay- sia Philip- pines Singa- pore Chi- na Ja- pan Ko- rea 1996
- 24.5
37.5 29.5
38.7 35.4
27.2 26.8 Thailand 2001 -
41.1 31.0
36.0 39.6
30.1 35.4 AFTA Countries 1996 24.5
- 27.6
17.1 17.0
28.2 11.2 16.9 Indonesia 2001
29.1 - 31.6 19.1 18.9
33.5 17.2 22.5 1996 37.5
27.6 - 31.0 45.3 27.5
27.0 24.6 Malaysia 2001 41.1
31.6 - 39.3 48.8 31.8
30.5 36.3 1996
29.5 17.1
31.0 - 30.0 23.7 19.9 24.4 Philippines 2001
31.0 19.1
39.3 - 37.7 25.2 20.8 26.6 1996 38.7
17.0 45.3
30.0 - 28.0 39.5 33.5 Singapore 2001 36.0
18.9 48.8
37.7 - 31.8 35.4 41.5 East Asian Countries 1996 35.4
28.2 27.5
23.7 28.0
- 25.0 28.0 China 2001
39.6 33.5
31.8 25.2
31.8 - 29.4 35.8 1996 27.2
11.2 27.0
19.9 39.5
25.0 - 41.7 Japan 2001
30.1 17.2
30.5 20.8
35.4 29.4
- 46.4
1996 26.8
16.9 24.6
24.4 33.5
28.0 41.7
- Korea
2001 35.4
22.5 36.3
26.6 41.5
35.8 46.4
- Source: Author’s own calculation. Calculated from PC-TAS, UN. Within ASEAN, all the index values increase when the individual members are compared with ASEAN’s export structure. In the case of Thailand, for example, the degree of export similarity is the highest between Thailand and Malaysia, followed by the similarity between Thailand and China. Among the AFTA member countries, only Indonesia has an export pattern that is less similar to other East Asia countries’ compared to other AFTA members. Malaysia’s index was the highest, while that of Indonesia was the lowest. Singapore and Malaysia illustrated the strongest ties among ASEAN coun- tries. Therefore, the ESI indicates that the East Asian countries seems to have more similar export structure to each ASEAN countries than intra- trade structure among AFTA member countries. Competition within groups
Does AFTA Create More Trade for Thailand? 63
seems to be more evident than between groups. Japan and Korea exhibit more rivalry in terms of their export structure. Singapore’s export structure is closer to Japan’s and Korea’s, while Thailand’s structure is closer to China’s. 3.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Rank Correlation The potential gains from a preferential agreement depend on whether the trade patterns between Thailand and the other ASEAN countries are com- plementary or substitutable. Spearman’s rank correlation between the Re- vealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) is used to estimate gains/ losses from trade. This correlation index shows the trade patterns between Thailand and other ASEAN countries. Since Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) rank correlation is calculated from the RCA index, which measures the competitiveness of the countries’ industries in the global market, the positive values of RCA rank correlation coefficients indicate the similarities of the trade structure between nations so that trade items between the coun- tries are substituted for each other. 12 Conversely, the negative values indicate a dissimilar trade structure. In other words, the traded items between coun- tries are complementary. 13
vertical axis, while the horizontal axis reflects Thailand’s export volume as a share of the country’s imports. The size of the circle represents Thailand’s export volume. As the result, based on the analysis of RCA rank correlation shown as a positive value, Thailand’s trade structure is found to substitute those of other ASEAN countries. For example, the trade substitution be- tween Thailand and the Philippines is about 45 per cent, it is about 33 per cent between Thailand and Indonesia, and it is 22 per cent between 12 The formula of RCA is ¸¹ ·
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