Does afta create More Trade for Thailand? An Investigation of Some Key Trade Indicators
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- Bu səhifədəki naviqasiya:
- Year Partner NAFTA FTAA EU 25
- Total Trade
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Year
Partner AFTA APTA MERCOSUR Intra-group 23.0 8.0
20.0 Rest of the region 60.9 84.2
61.3 2000
Rest of the world 77.0
92.0 80.0
Intra-group 22.4
8.6 17.1
Rest of the region 62.2
82.8 66.8
2001 Rest of the world 77.6 91.4
82.9 Intra-group 22.7 9.1
11.5 Rest of the region 62.2 82.0
76.5 2002
Rest of the world 77.3
90.9 88.5
Intra-group 24.7
10.0 11.9
Rest of the region 60.5
80.4 74.3
2003 Rest of the world 75.3 90.0
88.1 Intra-group 24.9 10.6
12.7 Rest of the region 60.5 79.1
73.3 2004
Rest of the world 75.1
89.4 87.3
Intra-group 25.3
11.0 12.9
Rest of the region 60.5
77.9 73.3
2005 Rest of the world 74.7 89.0
87.1 Intra-group 24.9 10.7
13.5 Rest of the region 60.7 78.0
71.6 2006
Rest of the world 75.1
89.3 86.5
Does AFTA Create More Trade for Thailand? 57
Year Partner NAFTA FTAA EU 25 Intra-group 55.7 60.7
67.2 Rest of the region 9.0 1.0
8.3 2000
Rest of the world 44.3
39.3 32.8
Intra-group 55.5
60.6 66.7
Rest of the region 9.5
1.0 9.0
2001 Rest of the world 44.5 39.4
33.3 Intra-group 56.6 60.8
66.7 Rest of the region 8.7 0.9
9.2 2002
Rest of the world 43.4
39.2 33.3
Intra-group 56.1
60.0 67.6
Rest of the region 8.4
0.7 9.3
2003 Rest of the world 43.9 40.0
32.4 Intra-group 55.9 59.8
67.3 Rest of the region 8.7 1.2
9.5 2004
Rest of the world 44.1
40.2 32.7
Intra-group 55.8
60.2 66.5
Rest of the region 9.3
1.3 10.2
2005 Rest of the world 44.2 39.8
33.5 Intra-group 53.8 58.4
66.7 Rest of the region 10.4 1.4
10.6 2006
Rest of the world 46.2
41.6 33.3
Source: UNCTAD 2007. 58 Piriya Pholphirul Table 2: Intra- and Extra-ASEAN Trade in 2006
Intra-ASEAN Extra-ASEAN
Value
(million USD) Share of total trade (per cent)
Value (million USD) Share of total trade (per cent) Brunei
2,633.2 28.9
6,475.1 71.1
Cambodia 1,226.5
19.1 5,210.9
80.9 Indonesia 37,862.3 23.4
124,001.8 76.6
Lao PDR 790.5
79.8 199.7
20.2 Malaysia 73,270.2 25.7
212,272.7 74.3
Myanmar 3,324.4
59.0 2,305.9
41.0 Philippines 18,410.5 18.6
80,773.3 81.4
Singapore 146,102.0 28.6 363,987.9 71.4 Thailand 50,484.0 20.3
198,204.3 79.7
Vietnam 18,667.7 24.2 58,602.8 75.8 ASEAN
352,771.4 25.1
1,052,034.3 74.9
Source: UNCTAD 2007. Even though intra-regional trade among ASEAN members was relatively low in 2006 (24.9 per cent), the trade volumes of ASEAN countries with other countries in the region were as high as 60.7 per cent. There is an implication here that ASEAN would benefit even more if it were to increase trade and investment with other countries. Of all the ASEAN members, Singapore traded the most in 2006 (USD146,102 million). Malaysia, Thai- land, and Vietnam are other ASEAN countries that also have high trade volumes (USD73,270.2 million, USD50,484 million, and USD18,667.7 mil- lion respectively). However, relatively low and stable intra-ASEAN trade shares (around 20-25 per cent) within the ASEAN bloc and intra-trade volumes for Thailand indicate that opportunities exist for these prospective countries to benefit considerably if they decide to increase their opportunities by joining other Preferential Trading Agreements, especially Does AFTA Create More Trade for Thailand? 59
one in the Asia-Pacific region like the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA), which is the oldest PTA in that geographical area. 8
ASEAN markets to date: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singa- pore. Between 1996 and 2001, its trading grew around 11.4 per cent annually. The high-growing items were “HS-33: essential oils, perfumes, and cosmet- ics” (30.5 per cent), “HS-99: commodities not elsewhere specified” (28.4 per cent), and “HS-29: organic chemicals” (26.7 per cent). The low-growing items exported to ASEAN-4 countries are, for example, “HS-73: articles of iron or steel (0.4 per cent), “HS-40: rubber and articles thereof” (1.8 per cent), and “HS-55: manmade staple fibers” (2.5 per cent). On the import side, Thailand’s imports from ASEAN-4 countries grew by about 3.7 per cent annually in the period from 1996 to 2001. The high-growing import items are “HS-32: tanning, dyeing extracts, and tannins” (17 per cent), “HS- 76: aluminum and articles thereof” (16.4 per cent), and “HS-71: pearls and precious stones” (10.2 per cent). The slow-growing imported items from ASEAN-4 countries are “HS-85: electrical and electronic equipment” (2 per cent), “HS-48: paper and paper board” (1.3 per cent), and “HS-84: nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery, etc.” (0.5 per cent). On the import side, Thailand’s imports from ASEAN member coun- tries increased from 13 per cent in 1990 to 17 per cent in 2003, offsetting the reduction in import shares from European Union countries, Japan, and the United States. Thailand’s import shares from European Union countries, Japan, and the United States decreased from 16 per cent, 30 per cent, and 11 per cent respectively in 1990 to 10 per cent, 24 per cent and 9 per cent respectively in 2003. Other major import markets are China (8 per cent in 2003), Taiwan (4 per cent), South Korea (4 per cent) and the United Arab Emirates (3 per cent). Market diversification is therefore an important argument showing Thailand’s low dependence on exports and imports in a particular market. 8
The Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APYA) in 2005 in Beijing, China was finally established and ratified by five of the seven countries, excluding the Philippines and Thailand. However, the Lao PDR has not yet issued customs notification on the tariff concessions granted. Thus, it is not considered an effectively participating member. China joined the Bangkok Agreement in 2001, making APTA the only re- gional preferential trade agreement linking the two most populous countries of the world: China and India. Pholphirul (2009) analyzes the potential gains for Thailand on entering one of the oldest PTAs in the Asia-Pacific region, namely the Asia-Pa- cific Trade Agreement (APTA). He finds that joining the APTA membership should yield around USD1,841 million in export gains per year for Thailand due to tariff reductions, mainly from China, Korea, and India.
60 Piriya Pholphirul In addition to a multilateral trading system, Thailand has concluded a network of bilateral preferential trading arrangements with several trading partners such as Australia, Bahrain, India, Japan, Peru, New Zealand, and the United States. In this regard, the FTA negotiations can be used as a means of maintaining and strengthening its shares in traditional export mar- kets such as Japan, Europe, and United States as well as broadening and deepening its trade and investment access in potential markets, particularly China, India, Australia, and New Zealand. It is hoped that a free trade agree- ment with a far-off country, like Peru or Bahrain, will be a major step for- ward in achieving further trade expansion and economic cooperation with Latin America and the Middle East. There is no doubt under these open foreign policies why the country’s degree of openness in terms of trade-to-GDP ratio was as high as 120.4 per cent in 2006, which significantly increased when the baht currency was devalued in 1997. Currently, exports make up 58.8 per cent of the Thai GDP. During 2006, there was a temporary appreciation of the baht coupled with intense competition in the world market; according to the calculation of trade data from PC-TAS, Thailand’s exports grew by only 10.9 per cent in its merchandise trade, which was much lower than the average growth rate among other ASEAN economies (15.8 per cent). The lower growth of ex- port volumes indicates that Thai exports are losing their competitive edge in the world market. Global competitiveness has become a major challenge among trade policymakers and exporters in the new era. 3 Analyzing Trade Creation by Means of Trade Indicators As Thailand has become more liberalized over the years, either in the form of multilateralism, regionalism, or bilateralism, the country has grown deeply concerned about the competitiveness of its own exports in foreign markets. This phenomenon has resulted in a proliferation of analytical studies on the country’s potential gains and losses from liberalization. Negotiators can use these analyses as extra information to shape their stance during trade talks, and the public can be informed to prepare it for forthcoming opportunities and threats. This section analyzes the potential gains to Thailand as a mem- ber of AFTA. These can be determined by analyzing the similarities of its trade patterns to the patterns of other ASEAN countries. A difference in the trade pattern reflects the degree of competition among countries and ex- plains whether or not trade creation and trade diversion should exist. The comparison of trade patterns among countries can be analyzed by using three fundamental trade indicators, namely the Export Similarity Index (ESI),
Does AFTA Create More Trade for Thailand? 61
the Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) index, and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) rank correlation. The differences in trade patterns reflect the degree of competition among countries and explain whether trade creation or trade diversion should exist. 9
One of common analytical tools adopted in many of these research works is the Export Similarity Index, which measures the similarity of any two coun- tries’ products exported to the third market. This is based on the reasonable assumption that if two countries produce and export similar products, then the level of competition will be intensified by opening up trade between the two.
10 The Export Similarity Index (ESI) has been calculated to investigate trade competition among countries. 11 Based on a six-digit harmonized sys- tem (HS), the index indicates the similarity of the export commodity struc- tures of two selected countries. An ESI value of 100 indicates that two countries’ export structures are the same, while an ESI value of 0 reveals that two countries’ export structures are very different. The ESI values among the ASEAN countries and other East Asian nations show higher- degree pair-wise export similarities between the countries. The increases in the ESI value from 1996 to 2001 imply a higher degree of export similarity among those countries. Among ASEAN members, Singapore and Japan, as well as Singapore and Korea, had a very similar export pattern. Thailand had the highest index value compared with China and other East Asian countries. Also, the Philippines and Indonesia showed minor similarities in the struc- ture of their exports with East Asian countries. The calculation table is shown below: 9
The Thailand Development Research Institute (1996), however, concludes there is a strong similarity in the trade structure of AFTA member countries, which results in a high degree of competition among these nations. 10 The Export Similarity Index was first introduced by MacDougall in 1952 with the aim of measuring the similarity of British and American exports. 11 The formula of the Trade Similarity Index is
> @ 100 , , ¸ ¸ ¸ ¹ · ¨ ¨ ¨ © § ¦
i i bc X ac X Minimum c ab S where
c ab S , is the Trade Similarity Index between country A and country B in market C,
X i is the weight of the commodity i in A’s trade in market C, and
X i is the weight of the commodity i in B’s trade in C.
62 Piriya Pholphirul Table 3: Export Similarity Index (ESI) among AFTA Countries and East Asian Countries Yüklə 248,57 Kb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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