Agar bugun Davlat zaxira foiz stavkalarini pasaytirsa, ertaga inflyatsiya nima bo'ladi?
Ovoz berish natijalariga siyosiy kampaniya xarajatlari qanday ta'sir qiladi?
Ushbu kursni o‘rganish natijasida yana qancha pul topasiz?
Qurilishiga ko'p pul sarflash bizni tanazzuldan olib chiqadimi??
Kontrabondani qonuniylashtirish qanday ta'sir qilishi mumkin …
… undan foydalanuvchilar soni?
… soliq tushumlari?
… fuqarolarning umumiy baxtidir?
oldingi savollardagi sabab-oqibat elementlariga e'tibor bering.
Sababiy aloqaning mavjudligi iqtisodiy nazariya tomonidan taklif qilingan (yoki Sog'lom fikr), ekonometrik tahlilning maqsadi ushbu nedensel aloqani empirik ravishda tekshirish yoki miqdoriy aniqlashdir
Causality, Ceteris Paribus, and Experiments
13
in economic thinking, causal relations are strongly connected with the
notion of ceteris paribus (“other things being equal”)
example: consumer demand analysis – increasing a price makes consumers buy less ceteris paribus (however, if other factors change, anything can happen)
therefore, if one could run an experiment with ceteris paribus conditions
enforced, it would be easy to verify and evaluate the causal link
this is the way things are done in natural sciences
example: with decreasing air pressure, lower water temperature is needed for it to boil and turn into steam
→ experiment: it’s easy to provide for the ceteris paribus conditions in a laboratory setting
in social sciences, such controlled experiments are either impossible, unethical or prohibitively expensive
example: political campaign expenditures – impossible to re-run the
election with different campaign budgets