Alternatif Yollar
Rus ruleti örneği: Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: Fooled By Randomness, Random
House, 2001, S. 23.
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: Fooled by Random ness, Random House, 2001, S. 34
Öngörü İllüzyonu
Tetlock, Philip E.: How Accurate Are Your Pet Pundits? Project Syndicate/
Institute for Human Sciences, 2006.
Koehler, Derek J.; Brenner, Lyle; Griffin, Dale: »The Calibration of Expert
Judgment. Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory «, in: Gilovich, Dale
Griffin and Daniel Kahneman (Yayımcı.): Heuristics and Biases. The Psy‐
chology of Intuitive Judgment, Cambridge University Press, 2002, S. 686.
John K. Galbraith, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4960280.stm
Tony Blair’in sözü: Buehler, Roger; Griffin, Dale; Ross, Michael: »Inside the
planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time
predictions«: Gilovich, Thomas; Griffin, Dale; Kahneman, Daniel
(Yayımcı.): Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment,
Cambridge University Press, 2002, S. 270.
Harvard-Professor Theodore Levitt: »It’s easy to be a prophet. You make
twenty-five predictions and the ones that come true are the ones you talk
about.« (Bevelin, Peter: Seeking Wisdom. From Darwin to Munger, Post
Scriptum, 2003, S. 145)
Lynch, Peter: One Up On Wall Street, Simon Schuster, 2000
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