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5

Discussion

Using a modified gravity equation, this paper investigates the effect of AFTA on

world and regional trade patterns. Our first main finding is that trade flows were not

This competitive effect is partly offset by the increase in the prices of intermediate

products and inputs in the manufacturing process.

significantly affected in the years immediately following the signing of the AFTA

agreement in 1993 and reinforces the findings of previous studies. Indeed, the

degree of trade creation was lower than the preceding period 1988-1992. When the

gravity equation was re-estimated for intra-ASEAN trade only however, we did find

some evidence of a positive AFTA effect that although limited at first, gradually

increased. It should be noted however, that institutional progress by ASEAN

governments at this time was relatively limited.

One possible explanation for the fall in trade creation immediately following 1993

was the emergence of credible competition for market share from the new industrial

and exporting powers of China, South American and Eastern Europe. Similarly

other regional trade agreements such as the EU and NAFTA and associated

agreements between these groupings and countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East

and North Africa may have exhibited their own trade diversion effects. The

observation from Table 2 that the coefficient of NAFTA dramatically increases in

1990s while the coefficient of exNAFTA decreases (and is negative) supports this

conjecture.

Our second finding is that the Asian economic crisis was not a hindrance to the aims

of AFTA but rather may have worked as a trigger for a further acceleration of the

process and de facto economic integration itself. Indeed, evidence from Table 2 also

suggests that the effect of the Asian economic crisis was to generate a stronger desire

to source imports from within the region (even though the effect seems to have been

relatively small). A second explanation for the weakening of the negative import

diversion effect after the Asian crisis may reflect the consensus that prior to this date

that although ASEAN’s success was based on its outward orientation, perceived

problems of credibility and confidence in the region by the industrialised world meant

that ASEAN countries were forced to turn inwards and to focus on their local markets.

In response, ASEAN governments have made significant efforts to promote the

AFTA process in the midst of Asian crisis, for example at the ASEAN summit in

1998 when the final date for completion of AFTA was bought forward. Finally

however, it can be stated that the traditional stance of ASEAN countries to outward

oriented economic activity has not been significantly damaged but rather stimulated

by the AFTA process and/or the economic crisis resulting in no detrimental welfare

effects for the rest of the world

Recent developments suggest that ASEAN continues to make efforts to accelerate

institutional progress towards regional integration through both widening its

membership to include the entire Southeast Asian region and deepening its policy

coverage to non-trade areas and pursuing wider integration possibilities beyond the

region such as proposing economic cooperation with other regions and countries such

as China and Japan. It is, however, crucially important that there is a strong

economic rational to regional integration. In this sense, developments in this region

have benefited from support from multinational corporations and an additional

explanation for the recent rise in intra-ASEAN trade includes manufacturing’s

increasing reliance on an intra-regional production networks where parts, components

and other intermediate goods are produced across the ASEAN region and bought

together in one location for final assembly (Ng and Yeats 1999, Arndt 2001, Guiheux

and Lecler 2000).

There remain however, a number of questions raised by this study. First, the

short-run adjustment costs following the AFTA process and the Asian crisis are an

important issue both economically and politically. There is still little reference to

this subject for the case of ASEAN (early studies include Khalifah 1996, Menon 1996

and Brülhart and Thorpe 2000).

Secondly, the long-term dynamic gains that

ASEAN governments wished to peruse from AFTA such as the attraction of FDI,

accumulation of capital stock, technological progress, increasing product variety,

evolving comparative advantage structures and so on may be currently being realised

although it is still too early to observe them empirically (early studies include Madani

2001 and Bende-Nabende and Slater 2001).

Concerns about domestic industrial adjustment have already resulted in some

countries calling for a rescheduling and rethinking of the product coverage (Menon 1996).

Producers in Thailand and Malaysia for example, have requested more protective

measures at least in the short-term and Malaysia introduced the Approved Permit System

(APS) in April 1994 to restrict imports (Menon, 1996).

Table 1. Modified Gravity model estimates investigating intra-regional bias

variable

Equation (1)

Equation (2)

1983-87

1988-92

1993-97

1998-99

1983-97

1983-99

1983-87

1988-92

1993-97

1998-99

1983-97

1983-99

C -25.79*** -24.36*** -25.81***

-25.50** -23.63*** -23.73*** -24.84*** -23.46*** -24.13*** -23.86*** -22.54*** -22.59***

(-57.08)

(-56.13)

(-58.93)

(-36.24)

( -99.46)

(-106.62)

(-61.47)

(-62.30)

(-63.12)

(-38.61)

(-106.73)

(-114.31)

LGDPR

0.74***

0.72***

0.74***

0.75***

0.71***

0.72***

0.69***

0.71***

0.72***

0.69***

( 61.49)

( 63.89)

( 67.27)

( 42.42)

( 108.29)

( 116.23)

( 65.22)

( 69.36)

( 72.11)

( 45.57)

( 115.21)

( 123.69)

LGDPP

0.72***

0.73***

0.80***

0.78***

0.73***

0.70***

0.77***

0.75***

0.70***

0.71***

( 59.98)

( 64.56)

( 72.22)

( 44.16)

( 110.47)

( 118.91)

( 63.51)

( 70.19)

( 77.72)

( 47.50)

( 117.67)

( 126.73)

LPGDPR

0.21***

0.14***

0.11***

0.15***

0.14***

0.24***

0.18***

0.14***

0.18***

0.17***

( 17.05)

( 13.50)

( 11.07)

( 8.96)

( 21.57)

( 23.18)

( 21.26)

( 19.10)

( 15.42)

( 12.31)

( 29.31)

( 31.58)

LPGDPP

0.30***

0.15***

0.10***

0.04**

0.16***

0.15***

0.33***

0.19***

0.13***

0.08***

0.20***

0.18***

( 23.92)

( 14.45)

( 10.23)

( 2.58)

( 25.68)

( 24.92)

( 28.79)

( 20.02)

( 14.46)

( 5.17)

( 33.73)

( 33.40)

LGAP

0.07***

0.06***

-0.01

0.03***

0.02***

0.08***

0.06***

-0.01

0.03***

( 5.75)

( 4.87)

( -0.62)

( -0.75)

( 4.05)

( 3.64)

( 6.66)

( 6.24)

( -0.60)

( -0.45)

( 5.15)

( 4.81)

LDIS

-0.67***

-0.60***

-0.57***

-0.62***

-0.74***

-0.67***

-0.64***

-0.65***

-0.69***

(-38.72)

(-37.73)

(-38.07)

(-23.21)

(-66.36)

(-70.39)

(-47.46)

(-47.76)

(-48.38)

(-29.62)

(-81.99)

(-87.19)

ADJ

0.35***

0.49***

0.44***

0.46***

0.43***

0.44***

0.35***

0.52***

0.47***

0.49***

0.44***

0.45***

( 4.63)

( 6.94)

( 6.58)

( 4.24)

( 10.30)

( 11.08)

( 5.05)

( 8.22)

( 7.78)

( 5.06)

( 11.64)

( 12.62)

COM

1.02***

1.24***

1.15***

1.28***

1.13***

1.15***

1.07***

1.18***

1.04***

1.14***

1.10***

1.11***

( 19.85)

( 21.24)

( 20.10)

( 15.22)

( 35.00)

( 38.06)

( 22.92)

( 22.59)

( 20.31)

( 15.19)

( 37.79)

( 40.64)

Intra-region

ASEAN

1.78***

1.75***

1.67***

1.72***

1.60***

1.61***

( 14.99)

( 16.05)

( 16.04)

( 10.07)

( 24.75)

( 26.62)

NAFTA

APEC

1.27***

1.30***

1.23***

1.27***

1.24***

1.25***

( 37.31)

( 42.69)

( 42.65)

( 26.98)

( 67.81)

( 72.78)

Adjusted R

0.73

0.74

0.73

0.74

0.77

0.79

0.78

0.79

F-Statistic 1787.19*** 1860.23*** 1819.54*** 713.96*** 5714.21*** 6511.43*** 2251.66*** 2497.03*** 2444.35*** 961.77*** 7378.55*** 8433.17***

Obs

5927

5943

5950

2380

17820

20200

5927

5943

5950

2380

17820

20200

variable

Equation (3)

Equation (4)

1983-87

1988-92

1993-97

1998-99

1983-97

1983-99

1983-87

1988-92

1993-97

1998-99

1983-97

1983-99

C -25.65*** -24.20*** -25.48*** -25.09*** -23.45*** -23.53*** -25.66*** -24.36*** -24.72*** -24.53*** -23.07*** -23.12***

(-56.25)

(-55.34)

(-57.85)

(-35.14)

( -98.09)

(-105.10)

(-61.71)

(-62.73)

(-62.85)

(-38.53)

(-106.67)

(-114.23)

LGDPR

0.74***

0.71***

0.74***

0.75***

0.71***

0.72***

0.70***

0.71***

0.72***

0.69***

( 60.72)

( 63.09)

( 66.47)

( 41.84)

( 107.06)

( 114.90)

( 65.41)

( 69.68)

( 71.98)

( 45.53)

( 115.02)

( 123.48)

LGDPP

0.72***

0.79***

0.78***

0.72***

0.73***

0.71***

0.77***

0.76***

0.70***

0.71***

( 59.22)

( 63.75)

( 71.40)

( 43.57)

( 109.23)

( 117.58)

( 63.71)

( 70.50)

( 77.55)

( 47.45)

( 117.43)

( 126.50)

LPGDPR

0.21***

0.14***

0.11***

0.15***

0.14***

0.25***

0.19***

0.15***

0.19***

0.17***

( 16.96)

( 13.45)

( 11.07)

( 8.95)

( 21.57)

( 23.18)

( 21.89)

( 19.78)

( 16.00)

( 12.80)

( 30.01)

( 32.36)

LPGDPP

0.30***

0.15***

0.10***

0.04**

0.16***

0.15***

0.33***

0.20***

0.14***

0.08***

0.20***

0.18***

( 23.84)

( 14.41)

( 10.22)

( 2.56)

( 25.68)

( 24.93)

( 29.42)

( 20.72)

( 15.04)

( 5.67)

( 34.44)

( 34.19)

LGAP

0.08***

0.06***

-0.01

0.03***

0.09***

0.08***

0.00

0.04***

( 5.89)

( 5.07)

( -0.75)

( -0.83)

( 4.35)

( 3.96)

( 7.56)

( 7.40)

( 0.16)

( 0.04)

( 6.56)

( 6.33)

LDIS

-0.65***

-0.58***

-0.57***

-0.61***

-0.70***

-0.62***

-0.61***

-0.62***

-0.65***

(-35.55)

(-34.54)

(-35.73)

(-22.05)

(-61.07)

(-64.96)

(-41.48)

(-41.31)

(-42.85)

(-26.56)

(-71.86)

(-76.57)

ADJ

0.30***

0.43***

0.35***

0.34***

0.50***

0.42***

0.41***

( 3.77)

( 5.88)

( 5.07)

( 3.17)

( 8.13)

( 8.68)

( 4.73)

( 7.81)

( 6.73)

( 4.22)

( 10.46)

( 11.23)

COM

1.01***

1.24***

1.15***

1.28***

1.12***

1.14***

1.05***

1.19***

1.04***

1.09***

1.10***

( 19.80)

( 21.24)

( 20.06)

( 15.19)

( 34.94)

( 38.00)

( 22.57)

( 22.98)

( 20.36)

( 14.52)

( 37.80)

( 40.50)

Intra-region

ASEAN

1.81***

1.79***

1.69***

1.74***

1.64***

1.65***

0.82***

0.81***

0.70***

0.82***

0.65***

0.66***

( 15.22)

( 16.34)

( 16.19)

( 10.18)

( 25.28)

( 27.18)

( 7.32)

( 8.08)

( 7.31)

( 5.27)

( 10.76)

( 11.73)

0.24***

0.27***

0.10

0.12

0.24***

0.23***

0.33***

0.37***

0.21***

0.23**

0.34***

( 2.75)

( 3.35)

( 1.25)

( 0.92)

( 4.99)

( 5.14)

( 4.01)

( 5.10)

( 3.01)

( 2.00)

( 7.78)

( 8.16)

NAFTA

0.57***

0.62***

1.09***

1.26***

0.87***

0.92***

-0.49**

-0.46**

0.13

0.27

-0.13

-0.08

( 2.68)

( 3.21)

( 5.87)

( 4.23)

( 7.51)

( 8.52)

( -2.50)

( -2.62)

( 0.81)

( 1.00)

( -1.27)

( -0.81)

APEC

1.23***

1.26***

1.18***

1.21***

1.20***

( 34.57)

( 39.91)

( 39.06)

( 24.82)

( 62.94)

( 67.45)

Adjusted R

0.73

0.74

0.73

0.74

0.78

0.79

F-Statistic

1466.5*** 1528.6*** 1500.3***

589.9*** 4702.2*** 5360.6*** 1715.3*** 1909.9*** 1855.6***

732.4*** 5599.0*** 6400.2***

Obs

5927

5943

5950

2380

17820

20200

5927

5943

5970

2380

17820

20200

Note ***, **, and * denote 1%, 5%, and 10% level significance respectively. The numbers in parentheses are the t-statstics. Due to the difference of observed years and

missing values, the numbers of observations are not constant. The number of observations are as follows; (a) For periods 1983-87, 1988-92 and 1993-97, 35 by 34

countries, by 5 years = 5950; (b) For the period 1998-99, 35 by 34 countries, by 2 years = 2380; (c) For the period 1983-97, 35 by 34 countries, by 15 years = 17850; (d) For

the period 1983-99, 35 by 34 countries and by 17years = 20230. All regressions estimated using TSP.

Table 2. Modified Gravity model estimates: trade creation and trade diversion

Variable

1983-87

1988-92

1993-97

1998-99

1983-97

1983-99

-29.57***

-28.43***

-29.48***

-30.12***

-25.81***

-25.93***

(-57.64)

(-59.71)

(-64.79)

(-40.34)

(-102.03)

(-109.92)

LGDPR

0.79***

0.77***

0.78***

0.77***

0.73***

( 58.97)

( 63.23)

( 67.52)

( 41.49)

(103.03)

( 110.27)

LGDPP

0.78***

0.79***

0.87***

0.90***

0.77***

0.78***

( 58.51)

( 64.72)

( 75.93)

( 48.83)

(108.08)

( 117.39)

LPGDPR

0.25***

0.19***

0.16***

0.20***

0.17***

( 20.13)

( 18.25)

( 16.98)

( 12.78)

( 26.97)

( 29.03)

LPGDPP

0.34***

0.19***

0.14***

0.12***

0.19***

0.18***

( 27.48)

( 18.34)

( 14.70)

( 7.70)

( 30.30)

( 30.50)

LGAP

0.06***

0.04***

-0.02*

-0.02

0.01*

0.01

( 5.01)

( 3.78)

( -1.91)

( -1.44)

( 1.92)

( 1.36)

LDIS

-0.65***

-0.59***

-0.60***

-0.62***

-0.63***

(-35.41)

(-35.85)

(-39.75)

(-25.75)

(-63.36)

(-68.13)

ADJ

0.34***

0.46***

0.39***

0.41***

0.39***

( 4.53)

( 6.79)

( 6.29)

( 4.22)

( 9.68)

( 10.43)

COM

1.02***

1.23***

1.20***

1.31***

1.15***

1.18***

( 20.99)

( 22.62)

( 23.07)

( 17.78)

( 37.99)

( 41.59)

Intra-regional bias

ASEAN

2.26***

2.27***

2.11***

2.35***

2.01***

2.03***

( 19.75)

( 21.95)

( 22.30)

( 15.53)

( 32.70)

( 35.50)

EEC

0.29***

0.27***

0.11

0.34***

0.33***

( 3.34)

( 3.47)

( 1.49)

( 0.96)

( 7.26)

( 7.55)

NAFTA

0.52***

0.60***

1.12***

1.29***

0.98***

1.04***

( 2.58)

( 3.28)

( 6.66)

( 4.90)

( 8.96)

( 10.22)

Extra-regional bias

(imports to)

imASEAN

0.76***

0.92***

1.02***

0.98***

0.83***

( 16.27)

( 21.51)

( 26.25)

( 15.68)

( 32.64)

( 35.41)

imEEC

0.28***

0.20***

0.29***

0.30***

0.31***

( 6.50)

( 5.34)

( 5.55)

( 5.28)

( 13.32)

( 14.64)

imNAFTA

-0.35***

-0.23***

0.01

0.23***

-0.07**

-0.02***

( -5.82)

( -4.41)

( 0.28)

( 1.28)

( -2.06)

( -0.60)

(exports from)

exASEAN

0.79***

0.81***

0.91***

1.28***

0.77***

0.82***

( 16.97)

( 19.05)

( 23.55)

( 20.59)

( 30.32)

( 34.74)

exEEC

0.22***

0.19***

0.21***

0.29***

( 5.18)

( 4.90)

( 5.87)

( 3.75)

( 12.56)

( 13.49)

exNAFTA

-0.41***

-0.43***

-0.57***

-0.58***

-0.34***

-0.36***

( -6.92)

( -8.12)

( -11.71)

( -7.56)

( -10.88)

( -12.17)

Adjusted R

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.77

0.78

F-statisitics

1095.6***

1193.5***

1273.4***

541.02***

3566.8***

4114.5***

Observations

5927

5943

5950

2380

17820

20200

Note ***, **, and * denote 1%, 5%, and 10% level significance respectively

Table 3. Modified Gravity model estimates: ASEAN bilateral trade

Variable

1983-87

1988-92

1993-97

1998-99

1983-97

1983-99

-28.71***

-26.41***

-29.93***

-33.23***

-22.76***

-23.48***

(-28.00)

(-27.33)

(-32.40)

(-20.90)

(-44.48)

(-48.68)

LGDPR

0.89***

0.85***

0.88***

0.97***

0.77***

0.78***

( 35.40)

( 35.53)

( 39.31)

( 25.52)

( 57.50)

( 62.25)

LGDPP

0.94***

0.89***

0.94***

0.96***

0.82***

( 37.47)

( 37.71)

( 41.72)

( 25.44)

( 61.34)

( 65.84)

LPGDPR

0.63***

0.48***

0.38***

0.42***

0.41***

( 25.92)

( 23.06)

( 21.19)

( 13.28)

( 34.81)

( 36.88)

LPGDPP

0.61***

0.45***

0.37***

0.21***

0.40***

0.37***

( 25.15)

( 21.77)

( 20.50)

( 7.46)

( 33.20)

( 33.32)

LGAP

-0.10***

-0.14***

-0.11***

-0.05*

-0.09***

-0.08***

( -4.08)

( -6.78)

( -6.06)

( -1.70)

( -6.89)

( -7.00)

LDIS

-1.84***

-1.58***

-1.29***

-1.13***

-1.49***

-1.44***

(-37.09)

(-34.03)

(-30.55)

(-16.06)

(-53.70)

(-55.66)

ADJ

-1.20***

-0.63***

-0.44**

-0.25

-0.64***

-0.60***

( -5.36)

( -3.02)

( -2.27)

( -0.81)

( -5.06)

( -5.08)

COM

0.89***

1.03***

1.11***

1.37***

1.06***

1.10***

( 11.37)

( 10.46)

( 13.52)

( 12.07)

( 20.69)

( 23.34)

ASEAN

0.34**

0.35***

0.51***

0.84***

0.29***

0.35***

( 2.40)

( 2.66)

( 4.19)

( 4.20)

( 3.61)

( 4.68)

Adjusted R

0.74

0.73

0.76

0.75

F-statisitics

497.6***

487.7***

564.3***

217.2***

1591.3***

1820.9***

Observations

1600

640

4800

5440

Note ***, **, and * denote 1%, 5%, and 10% level significance respectively.

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