assumes that foreign investors are willing
to lend at a reasonable rate, which may
not be the case for an economy in a precarious state. Over time, countries’
investment rates show a striking correlation with their domestic savings rates.
The U.S. national savings rate tells a cautionary tale.
Personal saving fell
steadily from over 9 percent in the 1960s and 1970s to 6 percent in the 1980s to
below 5 percent in the mid-1990s to roughly zero by the end of the 1990s.
18
When the recession hit in 2007, the personal savings rate started to climb again.
Governments (Washington, D.C., and the states) have been running deficits, or
“dissaving.” (U.S. businesses were the only ones setting any money aside until
households were shocked into saving by the recession.) We can and have
borrowed from abroad to finance our national investment—at a cost. Nobody
lends
money for nothing; borrowing from abroad means that we must pay some
of our investment returns to our foreign lenders. Any country with significant
exposure to foreign lenders must always worry
that when times get tough, the
herd of international investors will get spooked and flee with their capital.
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