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Investment is a volatile component of GNP, falling sharply during
recessions and rising just as sharply during booms. As the
economy went into a deep recession in the early eighties, for
example, real GNP in the USA fell 3 percent between 1981 and
1982, but investment fell in real terms by 18 percent. In the
following year, as the expansion began, GNP rose 4 percent while
investment rose 13 percent.
Why is investment so volatile? The key lies in the nature
of the investment process. Investment decisions often require
long lead times, and their consequences are as durable as the
investment goods themselves.
While fluctuations in output exert a strong influence on
investment behavior, the costs of investing matter, too. These
costs include the prices of capital goods themselves, as well as
interest rates, required returns to equity owners, and the taxes
that firms must pay on the profits that the investments generate.
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