Water Resources Management in Central Asia

Table 3. Expected change in water resources of the main rivers of the 
 
Aral Sea basin at realisation of various climate scenarios
 
(in % from base rate)
River
Base rate (km
3
/year)
Climate scenarios 
ECHAM4
HadCM2
IS92ab(t)
Syr-Darya
37.9
-2
-1
-2
Amu-Darya 
78.5
-3
-3
-4
Source: Agaltseva, 2002
According to predicted assessments in the First National Report of the 
Republic of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Conven-
tion on Climate Change (2002), glacial supply of rivers in Tajikistan will 
be reduced by 20-40%, and the total flow of the Zeravshan, Kafirnigan, 
Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers will fallby 7% (an optimistic assessment). In 
the more remote future, the temperature rise by 3-4
С
°CСin comparison 
with that of the present will lead to considerable glaciation degrada-
tion, which will result in a catastrophic decline of the water content of 
rivers, by 30% or more. The same opinion is shared by some experts in 
Kazakhstan, who consider that within the next decades, owing to global 
climate warming, the water resources of Kazakhstan’s main rivers of may 
be reduced by 20-40%.

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Sulton Rahimov
48
Documentos CIDOB, Asia
Impacts of climate change on water resources in Central Asia
Considering the fact that flow forecasts for the long-term future should 
be based on the above long-term climate forecasts which are characterised 
by their low reliability, it can be supposed that in the future, nature will 
give us many surprises, in particular regarding the change of hydrologi-
cal regime in Central Asia’s rivers. However, in spite of forecasts on flow 
change, it must be remembered that the growth in water consumption 
in the region, linked with population growth and the intensive develop-
ment of the countries’s economies, will reach 15-20% by 2025-2030.