3. Robust economic growth, small business development, income from remittances, and an extensive social safety net have driven poverty reduction in recent years. An estimated 9.6 percent of Uzbekistan’s population (3.2 million
people) lives below the US$3.2/day poverty line
4
—which is the international definition for lower middle-income
countries
5
. By 2021, the poverty rate at this line is predicted to decrease to 8 percent, concentrating in rural areas where
half of the population resides and largely depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. Official poverty and inequality
measures have also fallen sharply. The official poverty rate fell from 27.5 percent in 2001 to 11.4 percent in 2018, and
official Gini coefficient by over a quarter between 2003 and 2013 (the last year in which the coefficient estimate was
reported). Micro- and small businesses development have contributed to the trend of poverty reduction. Official sources
credit these entities for 78 percent of total jobs
6
. In addition to dispersed benefits of strong economic growth that has
been sustained over an extended period, social assistance and remittances have also played an important role in
mitigating the poverty situation. About 37 percent of the population living below US$3.2/day receives social assistance.
More than 17 percent of the bottom quintile of households receive remittances from abroad, accounting for 60 percent
of their income. Income growth and rising remittance inflows will remain the primary drivers of poverty reduction over
1
Originally discussed at the Board on June 14, 2016 (Report No. 126078-UZ), the CPF was revised following a Performance and Learning Review in
June 2018.
2
WBG projections as of October 2019.
3
A collaborative effort led by the WB in cooperation with the authorities, non-governmental organizations, United Nations International Children's
Emergency Fund, the European Union (EU), and US Agency for International Development (USAID).
4
2019 L2CU survey.
5
WB report. 2019. Where They Live: District-Level Measures of Poverty, Average Consumption, and the Middle Class in Central Asia. Policy Research
Working Paper 8940, Washington, D.C.
6
WBG. 2019. Uzbekistan Country Economic Update Summer 2019.