World economy

Management and leadership capacity

The pandemic is also likely to mean that managers, leaders and policymakers have fewer people and resources free to plan for and respond to any disruption from leaving the single market.

Within NHS England, it is understandable but notable that recent board meetings and papers have not included any discussion of the end of the transition period, whereas EU exit featured regularly in late 2018 and 2019. Many of the key personnel working on Brexit readiness have been transferred to work on the pandemic. At the civil service level, while most of the structures to manage Brexit remain in place, some have now switched their remit to focusing on coronavirus, including the National Supply Disruption Centre established to identify and monitor medicine shortages. The same is true for at least some key personnel in the Welsh and Scottish health systems. While there is no data, it seems likely that, within individual NHS trusts, leaving the EU has similarly moved down the list of risks to which resources are allocated.

The NHS also has fewer options to release pressure on staff and supplies than it might otherwise. The cancellation of planned care during the first wave of coronavirus has already resulted in large backlogs across the UK. Repeating it to focus scarce resources on emergency patients would risk dangerously long waits for some patients.

For social care, the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services in England described the pandemic as “all-consuming”. It seems probable that this may have weakened already limited capacity to handle the complex new migration system, discussed above, and any further shortages of supplies or staff.

For private sector suppliers, the Institute for Government notes across all sectors that “the devastating impact of the virus on many firms’ balance sheets means businesses are less likely to have the funds to invest in new systems, staff and training”. It might be expected that medical suppliers would be an exception, but the stock market suggests this is not necessarily the case. Apart from AstraZeneca PLC, which has a promising vaccine in trials, shares in other major UK medicines and devices manufacturers – GlaxoSmithKline, Smith & Nephew and Convatec – are now considerably lower than they were before Covid-19.