The Nature of Players and the Oil Price Formation Process
In recent years, the futures markets have attracted a wide range of financial players including pension
funds, hedge funds, index investors, technical traders, and high net worth individuals. Many reasons have
been suggested on why financial players have increased their participation in commodities markets. The
historically low correlation between commodities‟ returns in general and other financial assets‟ returns,
such as stocks or bonds, has increased the attractiveness of holding commodities for portfolio
diversification purposes for some institutional investors. Because commodity returns are positively
correlated with inflation, some investors have entered the commodities market to hedge against inflation
risk and weak dollar. Expectations of relative higher returns in investment in commodities due to
perception of tightened market fundamentals have motivated many investors to enter the oil market.
Finally, financial innovation has provided an easy and a cheap way for various participants, both
institutional and retail investors, to gain exposure to commodities.
The entry and the impact of financial players has been the subject of various empirical studies. Some
examine whether these players had a destabilising effect on commodities futures markets.
105
Other studies
focus on the impact of players on the inter-linkages between commodities markets and other financial
markets such as equity.
106
While these and other similar studies provide some valuable insights into the
issue of linkages between financial layers and physical benchmarks, it is important to expand the analysis
104
See for instance, J.P. Morgan (2010), “Will EPSO Emerge as a New Pricing Benchmark?”, Presentation at the
Platts Crude Oil Methodology Forum 2010, London, May.
105
See for instance Brunetti and Büyükşahin (2009).
106
For example, Büyükşahin and Robe (2010) find that the composition of traders plays a role in explaining the joint
distribution of equity and commodity returns. Specifically, they find that a subset of hedge funds, those that are
active both in equity and commodity futures market can explain the increase in the commodity-equity correlations.
In contrast, swap dealers, index traders, and floor brokers and traders play no role in explaining cross-correlations
across markets.
74
to the trading strategies of physical players. The fact remains that the participants in many of the OTC
markets such as forward markets and CFDs which are central to the price discovery process are mainly
„physical‟ and include entities such as refineries, oil companies, downstream consumers, physical traders,
and market makers. Financial players such as pension funds, index and retail investors have limited
presence in some of these markets. Thus, any analysis limited to the role of non-commercial participants
in the futures markets in the oil price formation process is likely to be incomplete.
The Linkages between Physical Benchmarks and Financial Layers
At the early stages of the current pricing system linking prices to „physical‟ benchmarks in formulae
pricing provided producers and consumers with a sense of comfort that the price is grounded in the
physical dimension of the market. Suspicion still exists on whether the oil price derived from paper
markets such as the futures market reflects the physical realities of the oil market at the time of pricing.
Sceptics argue that prices in these markets are not determined on the basis of trading in real barrels, but
rather by trading in financial contracts for future delivery (Mabro, 2008).
The latter concern implicitly assumes that the process of identifying the price of benchmarks can be
isolated from financial layers. However, this is far from reality. As our analysis shows, the different layers
in the oil market are highly interconnected and form a complex web of links, all of which play a role in
the price discovery process.
107
The information derived from financial layers plays an important role in
identifying the price level of the benchmark. In the Brent market, the price of Dated Brent is assessed
using information from many layers including CFDs, forward markets, EFPs and futures markets.
Similarly, in the WTI complex, the prices of the various physical benchmarks are strongly interlinked
with the futures markets. The price of Dubai is often derived using information from the very active OTC
Dubai/Brent swaps market and the inter-Dubai swap market. Thus, the idea that one can isolate the
physical from the financial layers in the current oil pricing regime is a myth. Crude oil prices are jointly
or co-determined in both layers, depending on differences in timing, location and quality.
Despite the fact that the price discovery process is influenced by information from paper markets, most
players are still reluctant to adopt futures prices in their pricing formulae although some key producers
such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran use BWAVE (futures price) in pricing their exports to Europe.
This can be explained by the fact that since prices in the futures markets reflect the price of oil today for
future delivery, they inject a substantial time basis risk. Currently, this basis risk is eliminated by
referencing against physical benchmarks and managing the price risk by using swaps against the
benchmark price.
The above discussion has also some implications on the pricing of derivatives instruments. Since physical
benchmarks constitute the basis of the large majority of physical transactions, some observers claim that
derivatives instruments such as futures, forwards, options and swaps derive their value from the price of
these physical benchmarks. In other words, the prices of the physical benchmarks drive the prices in paper
markets. However, this is a gross over-simplification and does not accurately reflect the process of crude
oil price formation as the two layers are highly interlinked. The issue of whether the paper market drives
the physical or the other way around is difficult to construct theoretically and test empirically.
Adjustments in Price Differentials versus Price Levels
Our analysis shows the importance of distinguishing between adjustments in price differentials and
adjustments in price levels. Trades in the levels of the oil price rarely take place in the layers surrounding
the physical benchmarks. Instead, these markets trade price differentials which fluctuate based on hedging
pressures and expectations of traders. It is rare (though not unheard of) for companies to take positions on
the basis of an outright price movement – that is whether prices go up or down. This is far too risky for
107
Platts use the word triangulate: “Assessments will use spread relationships and derivative values to help
triangulate value”. See Platts Crude Oil Methodology Forum 2010, May 2010 (London).
75
most participants. Most trade is on spreads of some sort – one regional price against another, one product
price against another, one product price against a crude (feedstock) price, one time period price against
another time period. These arbitrages self-correct by traders‟ actions such as buying in one region, where
there‟s too much oil, and transporting it to another region where there isn‟t enough and where the price is
higher to draw in the oil. This feature of the oil pricing system poses a legitimate question: how can
markets that actively trade price differentials set a price level for a particular benchmark? As noted by
Horsnell and Mabro (1993) in the context of forward Brent,
In spread deals the relationship between specified flat prices and market prices may not be very
tight. And since the focus is to a large extent on relatives, the search for price levels that
correspond to the relevant market conditions becomes less broadly based and less active. The
liquidity in that part of the market which concerns itself with the oil price level has become a
small proportion of the total liquidity of the forward market.
We postulate that the level of the oil price is set in the futures markets; the financial layers such as swaps
and forwards set the price differentials. By trading differentials, market participants limit their exposure to
risks of time, location grade and volume. These differentials are then used by oil reporting agencies to
identify the price level of a physical benchmark. Perhaps this is most evident in the US market. As
explained by Platts (2010b),
physical crude oil assessments are still widely used by the industry, but the „flat‟ price formation
is originated by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The highly liquid sweet crude
futures contract traded on NYMEX provides a visible real-time reference price for the market. In
the spot market, therefore, negotiations for physical oils will typically use NYMEX as a reference
point, with bids/offers and deals expressed as a differential to the futures price…. Therefore,
while NYMEX acts as a barometer of market value, and negotiations for physical oil may
reference the futures value, Platts plays a distinct and complementary role to that of the exchange
(p.3).
To illustrate this last point, the recent strikes in France in October 2010 present a good experiment. As
seen in Figure 26 below, during the strike between the period 11
th
and 21
st
of October, the price
differential between Dated Brent and ICE futures Brent widened considerably reaching a peak of -$1.53
dollars per barrel on the 22
nd
of October.
108
The widening of the differential reflected the fact that while
global oil supplies were not affected by the strike, French refineries could not buy more crude oil which
resulted in less overall demand. Oil companies and physical traders holding more oil than originally
planned were forced to clear the ex-ante excess supply by offering larger discounts. Thus, in this episode,
the bulk of the adjustment took place through the changes in price differentials and not the price levels,
perhaps because the market thought the effects of the strike on the oil markets were only temporary.
109
108
It is important to note also that there is a good chunk of term structure between prompt Dated Brent and the oil
deliverable under the nearest Brent futures contract.
109
Some consider that such evidence is a clear indication that it is the prompt physical that sets the futures price.
Such natural experiments however don‟t shed light on this issue. One needs to show that these adjustments in
differentials occur in other than crisis situations and they are strong enough to drag down the price level. More
importantly, such evidence doesn‟t provide an answer to the question of how the level of oil price is determined in
the first place. It reinforces the point, however, that the futures markets set the price level and the physical layers set
the differentials, which reflect changes in the underlying fundamentals of the oil market.
76
Figure 26: The North Sea Dated differential to Ice Brent during the French Strike
Source: Argus
Thus, the level of oil price, which consumers, producers and their governments are most concerned with,
is not the most relevant feature in the current pricing system. Instead, the identification of price
differentials and the adjustments in these differentials in the various layers underlie the basis of the
current oil pricing system. If the price in the futures market becomes detached from prompt fundamentals,
the differentials adjust to correct for this divergence through a web of highly interlinked and efficient
markets. The key question is whether the adjustments in differentials are strong and large enough to
induce adjustments in the futures price level. The issues of whether price differentials between different
crude oil markets and between crude and product markets showed strong signs of adjustment and whether
those adjustments affected the behaviour of oil price over the 2008-2009 price cycle have not yet received
their due attention in the empirical literature.
110
But this leaves us with a fundamental question: what factors determine the price level of an oil
benchmark? The crude oil pricing system and its components such as the PRAs reflect how the oil market
functions: if oil price levels are set in the futures market and if participants in these markets attach more
weight to future fundamentals rather than current fundamentals and/or if market participants expect
limited feedbacks from both the supply and demand side in response to oil price changes, these
expectations will be reflected in the different layers and will ultimately be reflected in the assessed price.
The adjustments in differentials are likely to ensure that these expectations remain anchored in the
physical dimension of the market.
Transparency and Accuracy of Information
The issue of transparency has gained wide credence in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis with
many organisations such as G8, G20, and the IEF calling for improved transparency as key to enhancing
110
In fact, one explanation attributes the upward rise in the crude oil price in the first half of 2008 to the high
demand for very-low-sulfur diesel (Verleger, 2008). This increased the price differential between diesel and crude
oil, which in turn pushed the crude oil price up. Such an explanation points to the importance of integrating products
into the analysis. Due to space constraints, products markets were not discussed in this paper, but are the subject of
current research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
01 Sep
11 Sep
21 Sep
01 Oct
11 Oct
21 Oct
$
/bl
French refinery
strike begins
Strike
officially
ends
Ice Brent=0
77
the functioning of the oil market and its price discovery function. Transparency in oil markets however
has more the one dimension. Although improving transparency in the physical dimension of the market is
key to understanding oil market dynamics and enhancing the price discovery function, our analysis shows
that transparency in the financial layers surrounding the physical benchmarks is as important. In this
regards, it is important to emphasize three dimensions to the transparency issue. First, obtaining regular
and accurate information on key markets depends largely on the willingness of PRAs to release or share
information. PRAs are under no legal obligation to report deals to a regulatory authority or to make the
information at their disposal publicly available. Thus, some basic but key information and data on market
structure, trade volumes, liquidity, the players and their nature, and the degree of concentration in a
trading day are not always available to the public, but they are sold to market participants at a price which
makes it worthwhile for PRAs to collect such data.
Second, the degree of transparency varies considerably within the different layers in the Brent, WTI and
Dubai-Oman complexes as well as across benchmarks. Within the Brent complex, the degree of
transparency between the various layers such as the Forward Brent, CFD and Dated Brent and futures
market is different. Similarly, in the Dubai complex, basic data on the Dubai/Brent Swaps market or the
inter-month Dubai swaps are not publicly available though the volumes and open interest of Dubai swaps
cleared through the exchanges are published. Transparency in the futures markets at least when it comes
to prices, open interest and traded volumes is relatively well established. The futures market generates a
set of prices throughout the day which are instantaneously transmitted through a variety of channels
increasing price transparency. On the other hand, a detailed description of the participants in the futures
market and the identity of counterparties to a futures contract are not made publicly available although the
exchange and regulators via the exchange do have detailed data for futures markets on these areas. This is
in contrast to the OTC market where the identities of counterparties to a transaction are known. Some
market players place a high premium on such information and thus prefer to conduct their operations over
the counter.
The third dimension of transparency relates to the extent to which assessed prices are accurate and are
reached through a transparent and efficient process. There are two aspects to this issue. The first relates to
the structural features of the oil market trading which impose certain constraints on these agencies‟ efforts
to report deals and identify the oil price. As mentioned before, traders are under no obligation to report
prices; it is not always feasible to verify reported deals; in opaque and unregulated markets, PRAs may
need to rely on their evaluation of market conditions of specific crudes to reach an „intelligent‟ price
assessment. Thus, an important element of price transparency is the ability of PRAs to collect reliable
information in imperfect and often illiquid markets and analyse the information in an efficient and
objective manner. The second aspect is linked to the internal operations of PRAs. As discussed above, the
methodologies used to assess the oil price differ considerably across agencies. Their access to information
and the type of data used in their assessment process vary across PRAs and across markets. The
procedures applied within each of the organisations to ensure an efficient price discovery process differ as
these are internally driven and are not subject to external regulation or supervision. Thus, the degree of
price transparency is very much interlinked to the activities of PRAs and the reporting standards and other
procedures that they internally set and enforce.
78
9. Conclusions
Based on the above analysis of the current international crude oil pricing system, it is possible to draw the
following conclusions:
Markets with relatively low volumes of production such as WTI, Brent, and Dubai-Oman set the
price for markets with higher volumes of production elsewhere in the world but with fewer or
none of the commonly accepted conditions to achieve an acceptable „benchmark‟ status. So far
the low and continuous decline in the physical base of existing benchmarks has been counteracted
by including additional crude streams in an assessed benchmark. Such short-term solutions
though successful in alleviating the problem of squeezes should not distract observers from some
key questions: What are the conditions necessary for the emergence of successful benchmarks in
the most liquid market? Would a shift to assessing price to these markets improve the price
discovery process? Such key questions remain heavily under-researched in the energy literature
and do not feature in the producer-consumer dialogue. The emergence of the non-OECD as the
main source of growth in global oil demand will only increase the importance of such questions.
Doubts about the suitability of Dubai as an appropriate benchmark for pricing crude oil exports to
Asia have been raised in the past (Horsnell and Mabro, 1993). This raises the question of whether
new benchmarks are needed to reflect more accurately the recent shift in trade flows and the rise
in importance of the Asian consumer.
PRAs play an important role in assessing the price of the key international benchmarks. These
assessed prices are central to the oil pricing system and are used by oil companies and traders to
price cargoes under long-term contracts or in spot market transactions; by futures exchanges for
the settlement of their financial contracts; by banks and companies for the settlement of derivative
instruments such as swap contracts; and by governments for taxation purposes. PRAs do not only
act as „a mirror to the trade‟. In their attempt to identify the price, PRAs enter into the decision-
making territory. The decisions they make are influenced by market participants and market
structure while at the same time these decisions influence the trading strategies of the various
participants. New markets and contracts may emerge to hedge the risks that emerge from some of
the decisions that PRAs make. The accuracy of price assessments heavily depends on a large
number of factors including the quality of information obtained by the RPA, the internal
procedures applied by the PRAs and the methodologies used in price assessment.
The assumption that the process of identifying the price of benchmarks in the current oil pricing
system can be isolated from financial layers is rather simplistic. The analysis in this report shows
that the different layers of the oil market are highly interconnected and form a complex web of
links, all of which play a role in the price discovery process. The information derived from
financial layers is essential for identifying the price level of the benchmark. One could argue that
without these financial layers it would not be possible to „discover‟ or „identify‟ oil prices in the
current oil pricing system. In effect, crude oil prices are jointly co-determined and identified in
both layers, depending on differences in timing, location and quality.
Since physical benchmarks constitute the basis of the large majority of physical transactions,
some observers claim that derivatives instruments such as futures, forwards, options and swaps
derive their value from the price of these physical benchmarks i.e. the prices of these physical
benchmark drive the prices in paper markets. However, this is a gross over-simplification and
does not accurately reflect the process of crude oil price formation. The issue of whether the
paper market drives the physical or the other way around is difficult to construct theoretically and
test empirically in the context of the oil market.
79
The report also calls for broadening the empirical research to include the trading strategies of
physical players. The fact remains though that the participants in many of the OTC markets such
as forward markets and CFDs which are central to the price discovery process are mainly
„physical‟ and include entities such as refineries, oil companies, downstream consumers, physical
traders, and market makers. Financial players such as pension funds and index investors have
limited presence in many of these markets. Thus, any analysis limited to non-commercial
participants in the futures market and their role in the oil price formation process is incomplete.
The analysis in this report emphasises the distinction between trade in price differentials and trade
in price levels. We postulate that the level of the price of the main benchmarks is set in the futures
markets; the financial layers such as swaps and forwards set the price differentials depending on
quality, location and timing. These differentials are then used by oil reporting agencies to identify
the price level of a physical benchmark. If the price in the futures market becomes detached from
the underlying benchmark, the differentials adjust to correct for this divergence through a web of
highly interlinked and efficient markets. Thus, our analysis reveals that the level of oil price,
which consumers, producers and their governments are most concerned with, is not the most
relevant feature in the current pricing system. Instead, the identification of price differentials and
the adjustments in these differentials in the various layers underlie the basis of the current oil
pricing system. By trading differentials, market participants limit their exposure to risks of time,
location grade and volume. Unfortunately, this fact has received little attention and the issue of
whether price differentials between different markets showed strong signs of adjustment in the
2008-2009 price cycle has not yet received its due attention in the empirical literature.
But this leaves us with a fundamental question: what factors determine the price level of an oil
benchmark in the first place? The crude oil pricing system and its components such as the PRAs
reflect how the oil market functions: if oil price levels are set in the futures market and if
participants in these markets attach more weight to future fundamentals rather than current
fundamentals and/or if market participants expect limited feedbacks from both the supply and
demand side in response to oil price changes, these expectations will be reflected in the different
layers and will ultimately be reflected in the assessed price. The adjustments in differentials are
likely to ensure that these expectations remain anchored in the physical dimension of the market.
Transparency in oil markets has more than one dimension. Although improving transparency in
the physical dimension of the market is key to understanding oil market dynamics and enhancing
the price discovery function, our analysis shows that transparency in the financial layers
surrounding the physical benchmarks is as important. In this regards, it is important to emphasize
three dimensions to the transparency issue. First, obtaining regular and accurate information on
key markets is not straightforward and depends largely on the willingness of PRAs to release or
share information. Second, the degree of transparency varies considerably within the different
layers in the Brent, WTI and Dubai-Oman complexes as well as across benchmarks. The third
dimension of transparency relates to the extent assessed prices are accurate and are reached
through a transparent and efficient process. There are two aspects to this issue. The first aspect
relates to the structural features of the oil market trading which impose certain constraints on
these agencies‟ efforts to report deals and identify the oil price. The second aspect is linked to the
internal operations of PRAs. Thus, the degree of price transparency is very much interlinked to
the activities of PRAs and the reporting standards and other procedures that they internally set
and enforce.
The current oil pricing system has now survived for almost a quarter of a century, longer than the OPEC
administered system did. While some of the details have changed, such as Saudi Arabia‟s decision to
replace Dated Brent with Brent futures price in pricing its exports to Europe and the more recent move to
replace WTI with Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) in pricing its exports to the US, these changes are
80
rather cosmetic. The fundamentals of the current pricing system have remained the same since the mid
1980s i.e. the price of oil is set by the „market‟ with PRAs using various methodologies to reflect the
market price in their assessments and making use of information generated both in the physical and
financial layers surrounding the global benchmarks. In the light of the 2008-2009 price swings, the oil
pricing system has received some criticisms reflecting the unease that some observers feel with the
current system.
111
Although alternative pricing systems can be devised (at least theoretical ones) such as
bringing back the administered pricing system or calling for producers to assume a greater responsibility
in the method of price formation by removing destination restrictions on their exports, or allowing their
crudes to be auctioned,
112
the reality remains that the main market players such as oil companies,
refineries, oil exporting countries, physical traders and financial players have no interest in rocking the
boat. Market players and governments get very concerned about oil price behaviour and its global and
local impacts, but so far have showed much less interest in the pricing system and the market structure
that signalled such price behaviour in the first place.
111
See, for instance, Mabro (2008). Mabro argues that „the issue is whether the current price regime for oil in
international trade is an appropriate one. Nobody questions it because the vested interests in maintaining it are
extremely powerful. Banks and hedge funds are wedded to it. Some of the major oil companies have trading arms
that operate in these derivative markets like financial institutions. Their trading profits are substantial. OPEC
accepted it because they thought that it would protect them from blame. It didn‟t. And the question always asked is:
What is the alternative? I will simply say that no alternative will ever be found if nobody is looking for one.‟
112
See for instance, Luciani (2010).
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