Disentangling Strategic and Opportunistic Looting: The Relationship between Antiquities Looting and Armed Conflict in Egypt
Table 5. Long-term relationship results. Month
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Table 5.
Long-term relationship results. Month DV: Armed Conflict Coefficient Std. Error Antiquities Looting 45.7763
29.0282 Regime Change − 577.034
816.6646 DV: Antiquities Looting Coefficient Std. Error Armed Conflict − 0.0012 0.0061 Regime Change − 1.0981
13.9364 Quarter DV: Armed Conflict Coefficient Std. Error Antiquities Looting 52.1643 ** 13.579 Regime Change 461.9931 336.0252
DV: Antiquities Looting Coefficient Std. Error Armed Conflict 0.0049 * 0.0021
Regime Change 13.1296 ** 3.59 * p
≤ 0.05, ** p ≤ 0.01.
3.3. Hypothesis 2: Strategic Antiquities Looting in Armed Conflict The results in Table 6 indicate support for the hypothesis that an increase in antiquities looting precedes an increase in armed conflict. The short-term relationship looks at how changes in antiquities looting in the past (i.e., a sudden spike or drop) affect the current changes in armed conflict. The results in Table 6 indicate that at the month level, looting in the month prior is associated with an increase of approximately six armed conflict incidents. The results of the quarter level analyses show a similar pattern, with looting in the prior month associated with an increase in approximately 12 armed conflict incidents. Given the lack of variation in the antiquities looting variables and almost certain underrepresentation of the true extent of looting, these results must be interpreted cautiously. However, prior increases in antiquities looting do appear to be moderately associated with an increase in armed conflict. 3.4. Hypothesis 3: Opportunistic Antiquities Looting in Armed Conflict Contrary to the first two hypotheses, the results in Table 7 do not support the hypothesis that an increase in armed conflict will precede an increase in antiquities looting. At the month-level, the armed conflict variable was “dropped” from the final model because it had no lags (see note below table), suggesting that no short-term relationship exists between armed conflict and antiquities looting. Increases in antiquities looting in the prior month are associated with a negligible (0.2568) increase in the number of antiquities looting incidents; however, the relationship is only weakly significant.
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