City/Town
# of Armed Conflict Incidents
Alexandria
4
Aswan
58
Beni Suef
66
Cairo
633
Dahshour
2
Giza
268
Ismailia
129
Luxor
40
Manfalut
2
Minya
148
Port Said
109
Rafah
403
Taba
4
Total
1866
3.2. Hypothesis 1: Antiquities Looting and Armed Conflict are Positively Related
In order to assess whether these two events are positively related, they would need to fluctuate
over time together. One way to assess this is to test for cointegration—to see if there exists a long-term
relationship between two variables such that their joint movements over time are reasonably stable.
7
Using the bounds test approach proposed by
Pesaran et al.
(
2001
) (Table
4
) shows evidence of
cointegration between antiquities looting and armed conflict in both the month and quarter analyses.
The presence of cointegration by itself only indicates a relationship, not the direction of the relationship.
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