Expert Opinion cdr

Conclusion
The states of the South Caucasus, despite the difficult social-economic 
background, continue to develop. The economic shocks that began during 
the pandemic and continue to this day have largely been overcome. 
Increased consumer prices are becoming relatively stable, and a decreasing 
inflation rate trend is obvious. This year, a reduction in the monetary policy 
rate is expected in the three countries, which will contribute to the more 
active functioning of the economy. 
In the high refinancing rate conditions, all three countries have managed to 
achieve economic growth, which in Georgia and Armenia even exceeded 
double digits. 
There is also a positive dynamic in trade, with both the cargo turnover 
between Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the volume of foreign 
trade of the three countries in general, increasing. 
In 2022, the Georgian Lari and Armenian Dram strengthened against the 
US Dollar, while the Azerbaijani Manat remained stable. The trend of 
strengthening of national currencies is expected again this year.
The South Caucasian states have also shown growing dynamics in terms of 
tourism, where there is a significant increase compared to the pandemic 
period. 
The current economic indicators allow for positive expectations and 
forecasts; however, this is not enough and does not mean we should 
become complacent in our attention to the issue: All three countries must 
work with each other and with partner states so as to develop foreign 
direct investment, transport, infrastructure, financial services, and trade 
relations. The region has the greatest development potential. 
In Ukraine, as a result of Russian aggression, a new geopolitical order is 
being formed, in which the South Caucasus will have a critical political and 
economic role. Regional peace and targeted macroeconomic policies will 
open up new opportunities and prospects for each country, which will lead 
to an ascending economic depiction in the medium term.

---

17