Expert Opinion cdr

Graph 1.1
Source: National Statistics Offices of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, World Bank, 
International Monetary Fund
Economic Growth
In the first year of the Covid pandemic, the global economy shrank by 3.4% 
(Statista, 2021). Among the countries of the South Caucasus, Armenia 
experienced the biggest recession with a 7.2% decline, while the economies 
of Georgia and Azerbaijan shrank by 6.8% and 4.3%, respectively (Armstat, 
Geostat, Azstat, 2021). The same countries, in 2021, compared to the 
pre-pandemic period, showed positive dynamics of economic recovery, 
and exceeded the growth rates of 2019. Yet Armenia lagged behind the 
region, with just 5.7% growth in 2021. In 2022, the volume of the economy 
increased in all three countries, seeing Armenia become the leading state 
with a 14% growth rate, which, together with Georgia, improved on the 
previous year’s rate. Azerbaijan had a growth of 4.6% in 2022, which is 1% 
less than in 2021 (Armstat, Geostat, Azstat, 2021). Last year, Azerbaijan’s 
economy also benefited from increased oil and gas prices. After Russia 
invaded Ukraine, the price of energy resources rocketed, and along with 
the European policy to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources, 
demand for the Caspian Sea resources increased, of which Azerbaijan is 
one of the main suppliers.
Graph 1.2 shows the percentage indicators of the economic growth of 
the South Caucasus countries in the last 5 years. If we disregard the 2020 

---

6
recession, the three nations are characterized by positive dynamics of 
economic growth.
Graph 1.2
Source: National Statistical Offices, World Bank
This year, the World Bank predicts 4% economic growth in Georgia, and 
4.1% and 2.5% in Armenia and Azerbaijan, respectively. In 2024, according 
to the organization’s projections, Georgia’s economy will grow by 5%, 
Armenia’s by 4.8%, and Azerbaijan’s by 2.6% (World Bank, 2023).
Trade
In 2022, Georgia exported goods worth 5.6 billion US Dollars, a historical 
maximum for the country. Among the top five export countries are Armenia 
with a 10.5% share, and Azerbaijan with a 12% share (Geostat, 2023). In 
2022, Georgia sold goods worth 585 million US Dollars to Armenia and 
672 million US Dollars to Azerbaijan. In imports, the country imported 13.5 
billion US Dollars’ worth of goods in 2022, which is also an unprecedentedly 
high number. Last year, Georgia bought goods worth 613 million US Dollars 
from Armenia and worth 642 million US Dollars from Azerbaijan.
Graph 1.3 shows the percentage share of Armenia in the total foreign 
trade of Georgia over the last 5 years. Approximately 8-10% of Georgia’s 
exports go to Armenia, while its import figure is roughly 4-5%, although 
quantitatively, a small percentage may be higher, depending on the large 
volume of imports.

---

7