12
Table 1: The Effects of AFTA on ASEAN Imports (2001 to 2003)
Dependent Variable: ASEAN Country i's Import Value of Product k from Country j in Year t
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Explanatory Variables
-0.079** 0.137** -0.075** 0.149**
ln(Country's Preference Margin
(in %) on Product k in Year t) *
(D
NONASEAN
=1)
(0.023) (0.039) (0.023) (0.041)
0.072
0.260**
ln(Country's Preference Margin
(in %) on Product k in Year t) *
(D
ASEAN
=1)
(0.045)
(0.063)
-0.639** -0.523* -0.657** -0.573*
ln(Country i's GDP in Year t)
(0.089) (0.256) (0.089) (0.262)
0.374** -0.126 0.378** -0.132
ln(Country j's GDP in Year t)
(0.053) (0.082) (0.053) (0.082)
year 2002
0.079** 0.153** 0.080** 0.154**
(0.012) (0.033) (0.012) (0.033)
year 2003
0.216** 0.193** 0.216** 0.196**
(0.022) (0.052) (0.022) (0.053)
Observations
333247 413118 333247 413118
Number of groups (by HS6
classification)
153305 153305 153305 153305
Estimation Method
Fixed
Effects
Fixed
Effects
Poisson
Fixed
Effects
Fixed Effects
Poisson
Notes:
1) Statistical significance indicated as: + significant at 10%; * significant at 5%; ** significant at
1%
2) For the Fixed-Effects Estimator, the dependent variable is the natural logarithm of import
value, and the reported standard errors are robust.
3) For the Fixed Effects Poisson estimator, the dependent variable is the level of import value,
and the reported standard errors are robust and calculated according to Wooldridge (1999).
4) All regressions exclude Laos, Myanmar, and Singapore. Singapore is not included because
Singapore's MFN tariffs were all zero during the sample period.
5) The sample period is 2001-2003.