4
Introduction
The fascination with the economic development in China during the last quarter of a
century (approximately 1978-2006) largely depends on two circumstances. One is
the radical shift of economic system in a country encompassing a fifth of the
population of the world. The other is the country’s successful economic
performance in connection with this shift. The most obvious
illustrations of the
latter are the officially recorded aggregate GDP growth rate of about 10 percent per
year, the eightfold increase in per capita household income and the drastic fall in the
number of individuals living in “absolute poverty”. However, equally interesting are
the social problems that have accompanied this transformation – manifest, for
instance, in the fields of income security, the overall distribution of income, and the
provision of various
types of human services, such as education and health care.
To highlight these issues, this paper applies a systems-oriented, “holistic” approach
to China’s radical economic reforms. It deals with both the nature of the reforms
and their economic and social consequences. More specifically, the paper focuses
on the interaction between economic and social forces during the reform period. I
also consider China’s options for continued economic and
social reforms, whereby I
draw heavily on relevant experiences over the years in developed countries.
Although I concentrate on economic and social developments of the country as a
whole, the huge differences across geographical areas within China remain an
important aspect of these developments. Since the focus of the paper is on long-term
structural issues, the design of short-term macroeconomic stabilization policy will
not be discussed, although the importance of such policies for income stability will
be stressed.
The paper starts with a characterization of China’s economic reforms in
terms of a
multidimensional classification of economic systems, where today’s China is
described as a special type of “mixed economy” (Section I:1). When looking at the
economic consequences of the reforms, I deal with both the impressive growth
performance and various types of economic costs (I:2). The next step is to study the
5
consequences of the economic reforms for the
previous social arrangements, which
were tied to individual work units – agriculture communes, collective firms and
state-owned enterprises (Section II:1). I continue with various social developments,
which reflect a complex mix of social advances in some respects and regress in
others (Section II:2). China’s future policy options in the social field (Section III) are
classified into three broad categories: those influencing the level and distribution of
factor income (i. e., incomes from labor and capital), income transfers (in particular,
social insurance) and the provision of human services. Section IV contains brief
concluding remarks about China’s achievements and
unsolved problems in the
economic and social fields. It is unavoidable that the analysis shoots at a moving
target – both because the reform process moves on and because of ongoing revisions
of the national accounts.
1
I make no attempt to explain the internal political processes among the Chinese
leadership behind the economic reforms. Although Deng Xiaoping stands out as the
dominant political leader in the initial stages of the reforms,
the views, interest and
actions of political leaders at all levels must also have been crucial for the process.
1
When no other sources are mentioned, I rely on official Chinese statistics published by the National
Bureau of Statistics of China. I have then taken note of the revisions of the national accounts of China
reported in December 2005 (published in Statistical Abstract, 2006). For a short summary of these
revisions, see Oxford Analytica, 2005, and People Daily, 2005. For a discussion
of the production of
statistics in China and the recent revision of the national accounts, see Holz (2005a and 2006).