The role of domestic-owned capital in
ASEAN
The different positions of the
ASEAN
governments on the
AIA
reflect the political
salience of domestic capital in these societies and the coalitions formed by the
244
ATTEMPTING DEVELOPMENTAL REGIONALISM THROUGH AFTA
latter with the political/ruling elite. Although Thailand and Singapore did not
actively champion a developmental clause in the
AIA
, the absence of a challenge
from these governments on the issue needs to be explained. As the following
discussion shows, the Malaysian move to privilege domestic/
ASEAN
investors
through the
AIA
was actually helpful to domestic capital in Singapore and
Thailand undertaking expansion in the regional market.
Singapore
Although
FDI
had been the principle source of growth for Singapore during the
1970s, the mid-1980s recession led the government to adopt a new growth
strategy that emphasised the expansion of domestic capital, particularly non-
manufacturing capital, through regionalisation, although
FDI
remained important
(Yeung, 1999: 8). By the early 1990s the government had also planned to use
regional market expansion to groom a new generation of Singaporean
TNC
s
capable of competing with global
TNC
s (Wong & Ng, 1997: 136). The shift in
emphasis to domestic capital was seen as necessary to reduce Singapore’s over-
whelming reliance on
FDI
. It also brought political benefits to the ruling govern-
ment by co-opting domestic private capital, mostly ethnic Chinese capital that
had for various reasons been sidelined in the past in favour of
FDI
(Parsonage,
1994: 10). Domestic private capital was heavily concentrated in service-related
sectors, some of it was already going regional in
ASEAN
. As a result of this shift in
economic strategy, domestic private capital became part of the ruling elite in the
1990s, albeit as the junior partner in the ruling coalition of political/state elites
and state capital. The privileging of
ASEAN
investors in the
AIA
did not contradict
the Singapore government’s strategy to support economic restructuring based on
the regional expansion of domestic capital.
Thailand
In the case of Thailand domestic capital has played a key role in the Thai
economy from the 1950s. Although Thailand had experienced an
FDI
boom since
1985, foreign capital did not overwhelm domestic capital, which also expanded
considerably after 1985, often in joint ventures with
FDI
(Phongpaichit & Baker,
1996: 156). Most importantly, domestic capital, particularly urban (Bangkok-
based) big business had also begun to expand overseas. Unlike Singapore,
Thailand did not have a formal policy to develop domestic capital or a formal
regionalisation policy to support the overseas expansion of Thai private capital.
Nevertheless, the government’s commitment to
AFTA
served the interests of the
Bangkok-based business elite, which was in close alliance during the 1990s with
both elected politicians and liberal technocrats in the bureaucracy, who advocated
open economic policies for Thailand, including regional trade liberalisation
(Krongkaew, 1997). Despite, or perhaps because of political democratisation, the
big business–politics coalition had become a crucial feature in Thai politics in the
1990s as electoral success had come to depend on access to huge financial
resources (Hewison, 2001: 9).
Overseas expansion in the 1990s by outward-focused elements of Thai
245
HELEN E S NESADURAI
domestic capital was especially evident outside manufacturing industry, where
large family-based Thai conglomerates dominated (Phongpaichit & Baker, 1998:
28). The Shinawatra group, the Samart group, the Charoen Pokphand group and
the Ucom group, for instance, ventured overseas to Southeast Asian markets in a
variety of activities related to their core domestic business in telecommunications
and information technology. As in the case of Singapore, the decision to privilege
ASEAN
investors in the
AIA
did not necessarily contradict the interests of the
political and state elites, nor that of its business allies, since it clearly benefited
internationally orientated Thai domestic businesses seeking to venture abroad.
That was, however, the state-of-play in 1998 when the
AIA
was initially
adopted and the effects of the 1997–98 financial crisis were still unfolding in the
country. Since then, the collapse of significant elements of Thai big businesses
lent new emphasis to the role of
FDI
in spearheading growth in Thailand as
the Democrat Party under former Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai sought to
restructure the Thai economy towards greater market openness and competitive-
ness. Hence there was some move to de-emphasise the foreign–
ASEAN
distinction
in the
AIA
through attempts to bring forward the deadline for full foreign equity
ownership in investment.
27
The Deputy Secretary General of the Thai Board of
Investment, Chakramon Phasukvanich, in fact suggested the crisis might force
ASEAN
to play down its intra-
ASEAN
investment area in favour of attracting
FDI
from outside
ASEAN
.
28
In the end, however,
ASEAN
member governments adopted
a temporary and separate programme in March 1999 through which full foreign
equity rights were offered to all foreign investors for a two-year period in a
limited number of specially selected sectors, while the foreign–
ASEAN
distinction
in the
AIA
was maintained.
29
Indonesia
In the case of Indonesia, the support given by Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Indonesian
Co-ordinating Minister for the Economy in the Habibie government to the
Malaysian proposal regarding the
AIA
reflects economic nationalist thinking that
envisages a key role for the state in directing markets to achieve national economic
and political goals (Brown, 1998: 188). The liberal technocrats who had
dominated Indonesian policy making since the mid-1980s had rejected these ideas,
instead instituting market liberalisation and deregulation as the path to growth.
The Indonesian public, however, believed that these policies had dis-
proportionately benefited ethnic Chinese businesses, particularly the con-
glomerates, and those belonging to the President’s family (Borsuk, 1999).
Although deeply resented, ethnic Chinese big businesses were a crucial link in
Indonesian patronage politics (Habir, 1999). They gained their dominant economic
position through connections with politically influential persons, including
military elites and especially President Suharto, who also lent them protection
from an essentially hostile indigenous Indonesian society. In turn, ethnic Chinese
big businesses provided funds to Suharto, which he disbursed to selected organisa-
tions and individuals in return for political support (Liddle, 1999a: 51).
This meant that the president and government became extremely sensitive to
anti-Chinese sentiment, which indigenous business exploited through its
246
ATTEMPTING DEVELOPMENTAL REGIONALISM THROUGH AFTA
demands for preferential business treatment. Suharto had, in the past, used
economic favours like preferential credit and import licences to indigenous
businesses during much of his tenure as president as a way to gain their political
support, which led to the creation of a second corporate elite group—indigenous
big business (Liddle, 1999a: 68). But the fortunes of the latter looked set to rise
further with the appointment of the economic nationalists to influential positions
in the 1994 cabinet reshuffle. The economic nationalists quickly adopted the
position that deregulation and liberalisation could be strategically integrated
with state-driven industrial policy to develop domestic, especially indigenous,
business capabilities (Robison, 1997: 53).
The political salience of indigenous (and state) capital did not end with the
financial crisis and the fall of Suharto in May 1998. Many Indonesians regarded
further neoliberal reforms sanctioned by the
IMF
as attempts by Western interests
to impose a form of capitalism on Indonesia that would, once again, ‘prevent
indigenous Indonesians from taking their rightful place at the economic table’
(Habir, 1999: 202). The redistributive imperative to achieve economic parity
between the ethnic Chinese and foreign investors on the one hand and indigenous
groups, particularly in business, on the other, remained strong. It was, in fact,
strengthened in the aftermath of Suharto’s fall, given the strong resentment
against ethnic Chinese and foreign investment in the country. Both Habibie,
30
Indonesian president in 1998 when the
AIA
was adopted, and Ginandjar had long
been in favour of reducing Indonesian dependence on foreign investors and
in weakening the dominant position of the ethnic Chinese business elite by
building up state and indigenous businesses (Djidin, 1997: 26). While Habibie
championed state capital, Ginandjar championed indigenous business interests
(Liddle, 1999b: 20–21). Ginandjar’s open support of Malaysia’s developmental
approach to the
AIA
emerged out of such ideas and the ascendance of indigenous
business interests. Nevertheless, the financial and political crisis in Indonesia
meant that the growth imperative, particularly to attract
FDI
to the country,
became vital while
IMF
reforms made it difficult to translate economic nationalist
ideas to firm policies.
31
Malaysia
In the case of Malaysia the political salience of domestic capital is tied up with
the country’s long-standing ethnic politics, as well as with the broader economic
nationalism of Prime Minister Mahathir that emerged in the late 1980s. Between
1970 and 1990, a state-directed development programme—the New Economic
Policy (
NEP
)—drove the Malaysian political economy. The
NEP
was the outcome
of ethnic riots following the May 1969 general elections caused by the majority
Malay community’s concerns at their economic marginalisation and by fears that
they would lose their political dominance to the relatively better off minority
ethnic Chinese community as a result. Among the objectives of the
NEP
was to
create a Malay business (and middle) class and to achieve a target of 30% Malay
equity in the corporate sector. The
NEP
was vital to the legitimacy and security of
the United Malays National Organisation (
UMNO
)-dominated regime, since it
enabled both a more equitable distribution of wealth for the Malays as well as
247
HELEN E S NESADURAI
Malay political dominance through control of economic resources.
UMNO
has
long been the leading Malay party in Malaysia, regarded as the champion of
Malay political rights in multi-ethnic Malaysia. Although the
NEP
was replaced
by the National Development Policy in 1991 that scaled back ethnic preferences,
the goal of creating a Malay business community continued to be emphasised in
the 1990s (Tori, 1997: 236). Even the privatisation programme, undertaken as
part of the economic restructuring package adopted in response to the mid-1980s
recession, was actively used to create a Malay business class to fulfil the
NEP
goal
(Crouch, 1996: 39). Privatisation largely benefited
UMNO
-linked Malay business-
people, although a number of ethnic Chinese and Indian businesses gained as
well. This group, in turn, became a valuable source of political and material
support for various
UMNO
political leaders, including the Prime Minister (Gomez,
1996). By the late 1990s therefore, this politically influential rentier domestic
business community had become part of the governing elite (Khoo, 2000: 221).
The new Malaysian conglomerates that emerged out of privatisation and other
preferential policies were also a key component of the wider economic national-
ism of the prime minister. Especially after the mid-1980s recession, policy had
moved beyond the
NEP
’s narrow focus on building a Malay capitalist class to
advocate the growth of large Malaysian firms (which would include ethnic
Chinese and Indian firms as well) as a means of meeting the competitive
challenges of the global economy, although
NEP
goals remained salient (Khoo,
2000: 216). The policy shift reflected the strategic vision of the prime minister,
who had never been content with Malaysia remaining a Third World producer
of industrial commodities. Thus he emphasised the building up of Malaysian
corporations and conglomerates able to compete with foreign
TNC
s in what was
perceived to be an intensely competitive world economy.
Since foreign firms were dominant in the far more efficient, export-orientated
manufacturing sector, it was in the non-manufacturing sectors that domestic
capital, including ethnic Malay capital, found its niche, using market restrictions
as well as access to preferential treatment through political connections as a
means to profits (Khoo, 2000: 218). As already noted in a previous section, the
expectation among policy makers was that global rules would eventually allow
foreign corporations unrestricted access to the domestic market. It was clear that
Malaysian firms, including the politically privileged ones, would eventually have
to compete with global firms, not only in international markets but in the
domestic market as well. If politically important domestic firms were not ready
for global market competition, their demise would have significant political
repercussions for the
NEP
goal of advancing a Malay business class, for
Mahathir’s personal authority and, ultimately, for the stability of Mahathir’s
ruling coalition, as well as the security of the
UMNO
-dominated political system.
The developmental role envisaged for the
AIA
by the Malaysian side was, there-
fore, intimately related to ensuring the survival of the domestic firms that were
key players in the Malaysian political economy.
Reviewing the
AIA
: the growth imperative overwhelms
In September 2001 the
ASEAN
governments agreed to remove the disparity in the
248
ATTEMPTING DEVELOPMENTAL REGIONALISM THROUGH AFTA
AIA
between foreign and domestic/
ASEAN
investors in the non-manufacturing
sectors, thus offering foreign investors full market access and national treatment
privileges by 2010 rather than in 2020.
32
How do we explain this policy shift?
Although the
AIA
had been adopted in October 1998, right in the throes of the
financial crisis, it was at that time not expected to adversely affect manufacturing
sector
FDI
since its discriminatory effects were largely, though not solely,
confined to the non-manufacturing sectors. It was the flow of
FDI
to the manu-
facturing sector that was considered to be crucial during this period, since it had
been the main engine of growth and exports in
ASEAN
from the mid-1980s and
was believed by political leaders to be the main means of recovery from the
crisis. Some member country officials as well as the
ASEAN
Secretary General
believed that the
AIA
as it was then designed would jeopardise the inflow of
FDI
during such difficult times when the liberal reformist credentials of member
governments were at stake.
33
Nevertheless, the latter continued to maintain the
AIA
in its ‘original’ form. Instead, member governments accelerated
CEPT
tariff
liberalisation in 1998 as a means of reassuring foreign investors that they were
committed to realising the single regional market, the main ‘carrot’ used to
attract
FDI
flows to
ASEAN
. Member governments also temporarily relaxed invest-
ment restrictions for a one-to-two-year period in selected manufacturing sectors
in their respective countries as a way of maintaining investor interest in the
region, as already noted.
Nevertheless, member governments agreed to a one-year study on the
AIA
beginning in August 2000 in view of the report presented in July 2000 by the
ASEAN
Secretary General, which revealed a fall in investment in
ASEAN
from
US$28 billion in 1997 to $13 billion in 1999.
34
Moreover, the report also showed
that the
ASEAN
economies received only 17% of
FDI
flows to Asian developing
countries in 1999, compared to about 60% in the early 1990s. China, on the other
hand, received about 60% in 1999, up from 18% during the early years of the
decade. The negative correlation was not lost on
ASEAN
officials and leaders.
35
China’s potential accession to the
WTO
and the anticipated diversion of
FDI
to
China as a result added to the sense of urgency among the
ASEAN
leaders with
regard to the
FDI
situation.
Concern about the future of
FDI
flows to
ASEAN
became especially pronounced
by the middle of 2001, and it was this that finally prompted member governments
including Malaysia to review the
AIA
in September 2001.
36
By this time it seemed
clear that growth in
ASEAN
was in serious jeopardy as all the main engines of
growth in the global economy—the USA, Western Europe and Japan—seemed
headed into recession. In fact, it had become clear by early 2001 that a global
economic slowdown was imminent, threatening the recovery that most member
economies had experienced over 1999–2000 (
MIER
, 2001a, 2001b). Falling
demand in the USA, still the region’s main export market, during 2001 meant
that the
ASEAN
region appeared to be facing a more severe downturn than the
1997–98 regional financial crisis. Then the US market had acted as a key engine
of recovery for the crisis-stricken
ASEAN
economies as the latter attempted to
export their way out of the crisis. Not only were export markets threatened, but
foreign investment too was expected to slow as a result.
37
In short, growth and
FDI
had, by the middle of 2001, emerged as the overwhelming priority for the
ASEAN
249
HELEN E S NESADURAI
governments, including Indonesia and Malaysia. In addition, foreign investors,
notably American investors, pressed the
ASEAN
governments to accelerate
national treatment under the
AIA
by citing the need to counter the diversion of
FDI
to China.
38
The
ASEAN
decision of 16 September 2001 to allow market access and
national treatment for all investors by 2010 in the non-manufacturing sectors
was, therefore, directed at re-affirming
ASEAN
’s openness to
FDI
.
39
The attempt at
developmental regionalism was halted, and open regionalism (at least, the
FDI
variant) has re-emerged as the main feature of
ASEAN
economic regionalism in
the quest for growth.
Yet it is also important to bear in mind that member governments have
not agreed to implement complete regional investment liberalisation in non-
manufacturing sectors in the immediate future. This is targeted for 2010,
suggesting that at the national level full investment liberalisation will proceed
cautiously. Domestic capital, in short, remains a key focus in the individual
ASEAN
economies, but support for it will probably be addressed through national
instruments where possible and available rather than concerted regional ones.
The regional instrument has been reserved once again to realise the
FDI
/growth
imperative, but this is not to suggest that domestic distributive priorities have
been marginalised across
ASEAN
. In fact, the
AFTA
experience confirms that the
tussle between growth and domestic distribution is a key dynamic driving
outcomes in regional co-operation. Although not discussed in this paper, the
delays in negotiating services liberalisation and Malaysia’s temporary withdrawal
of automobiles from
AFTA
disciplines further reveal that there are sectors where
regional liberalisation will proceed cautiously, driven by domestic distributive
priorities despite the overall concern with growth. Thus, while governments in
Southeast Asia may turn to regionalism as a collective policy response to the
pressures associated with globalisation, as in the case of
AFTA
, it remains the
tussle between growth and domestic distributive imperatives that will ultimately
shape regional co-operative outcomes and the precise form of regionalism.
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