Power Blackout Risks

commission to assess the threat to the united states from electromagnetic pulse 
attack (http://www.empcommission.org) researches the effects and mitigation measures to such attacks.

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crobriefing on Power Blackout Risks
Reliability of power supply varies significantly across regions (Figure 4). Even within OECD countries the quality of 
supply is not uniform and power outages quite severly impact economy. The United States, as an example, has an 
average of nine hours of disruptions each year for every consumer. Those interruptions are estimated to result in 
economical losses of least USD 150 bn each year. Compared to other industrialized countries the reliability of the 
U.S. grid is 5-10 times less than in major European countries. The average electricity consumer in U.S. has to 
cope with approx. 30 times more service interruptions each year than in Japan or Singapore. U.S. grid stability 
will decrease in the future if there are not enough investments in the infrastructure.
The October 2007 study, “2007 Long-Term Reliability Assessment,” of NERC (North American Electric Reliability 
Corporation) came to the following conclusions:
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Long-term capacity margins on the nation’s transmission systems are inadequate to protect these systems 
from interruptions such as brownouts or blackouts. Absent immediate investments, this condition will worsen 
over the next decade;
•
Projected increases in peak demand for electricity exceed projected additions of generation capacity;
•
The areas of greatest concern are California, the Rocky Mountain states, New England, Texas, the Southwest, 
and the Midwest.
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In total, the U.S. will require about 120 GW of new generation just to maintain the minimum 15 percent 
capacity margin required for system reliability.