scenario of large-scale and long-lasting power outage worst case solar storm scenario: •
A severe geomagnetic storm (similar to the Carrington event of 1859) distorts the Earth’s magnetic field
creating colourful aurora effects on the night sky. Multiple transformers fail (either tripping or damage)
with cascading effects leading to a widespread power outage in the Northern Hemisphere (mainly affected
areas include Canada, U.S.A., Scandinavia and Russia). Water, food, and fuel supply is disrupted, financial
transactions stop, communication channels are interrupted and transportation of goods get challenging.
As transformers have typical replacement periods of several months up to a year the power blackout might
last longer than a few months.
u.s. storyline for worst case u.s. impacts* •
Affected U.S. regions with > 130 m people affected
•
Assumptions: strength as May 1921 event (10 x strength of 1989 events, but less strong than 1859
Carrington event)
•
300 transformers affected; delivery time per transformer about 12 months
•
Economic costs > USD 1 trillion
•
Further impacts include satellite damage, GPS signal disturbance, telecommunications break-down and
industry dependent on electricity.
This worst case scenario is mainly based on assumptions of widespread catastrophic transformer damages,
long term blackouts, lengthy restoration times, and chronic shortages which will take 4 to 10 years for a full
recovery.
Such a scenario – although unlikely – can have devastating economic impacts and will also impact many
industries. The insurance industry covers which could potentially be affected include:
– property: commercial and industrial business as well as personal lines
– liability: general liability, Directors and Officers liability
– credit: risk of businesses running into insolvency
