Power Blackout Risks

– marine: no loading/unloading of cargo – supply chain disruptions
– space: dramatically enhanced radiation risk for astronauts, damage to solar panels and electronics of satellites, 
malfunction of steering on-board computers
– aviation: loss of communication, polar routes have to be rerouted. 
What lies ahead? As far as solar activity is concerned, for centuries it has been shown that a very constant
cycle exists that peaks every 11 years. In 2008, we hit a low point. The next peak is expected around 2013. 
Technological mitigation options to protect against GIC impacts include engineering solutions (increasing the 
electrical robustness against GIC, hardening of equipment) and improved operating procedures (based on 
reliable forecasts). The simplest but probably also most expensive solution would be the provision of back up 
transformers. Costs per transformer are in the range of USD 10 million. But there are also other possible 
exposures leading to large scale power blackout such as terrorist attacks (e.g. using Electro-Magnetic Pulse 
bombs – see separate box) or cyber attacks.
* after John Kappenman (Metatech Corp.)

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crobriefing on Power Blackout Risks
Direct costs of blackouts are lost production, idle labour and facilities, damage to electronic data, spoiled food 
and damaged products, damage to equipment or customer refunds. Indirect costs are looting, accidental 
injuries, legal costs, loss of water supply. In general indirect costs exceed direct ones by up to 5 times.
4.2. Cost analysis of historic blackout scenarios
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Analyses of historic blackout events in U.S. show average electric customer interruption costs for medium and 
large industrial clients of between USD 15,709 for a 30 minute blackout and USD 93,890 for an 8 hour interruption. 
There is a wide range of costs depending on the industrial sector (medium & large clients). For an 8 hour event 
agricultural firms have the lowest costs with USD 41,250 per event, whereas construction firms have costs of
USD 214,644 – a factor of 5.
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It is difficult to get a clear picture of the incurred costs linked to blackouts. Other studies show much higher 
losses per event: