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Environmental Analysis of Azerbaijan Republic

The First Karabakh War

The long-term instability under the USSR administration re-emerged under Gorbachev. The Nagorno-Karabakh problem, in the process leading to the disintegration of the USSR in the second half of the 1980s, the claims of Armenia regarding Nagorno-Karabakh became the agenda again (Ekici, 2017: 65). Towards the end of the 1980s, economic problems in the USSR began to reach serious dimensions and these problems affected social, cultural and political developments. “Perestroika” and “Glasnost” policies of the Gorbachev administration also have an impact on this. Inflation has taken its form in the old war period; This situation caused the people to lose their trust in the socialist system. The inability to solve economic problems has led to a decrease in production and even more difficult access to the most basic foodstuffs (Cavadov, 2008: 10).

The official announcement of the inclusion of Nagorno-Karabakh in the Armenian SSR on the first day of December 1989 dragged the South Caucasus into a complex period in January 1990 (Yapıcı, 2015: 429). The USSR administration's support for Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan increased the desire for independence in Azerbaijan. Upon this request, the Azerbaijan Popular Front (AHC) was established with the goal of independence, and Abulfez Elchibey was elected as the first chairman in the first congress held in July (Şıhaliyev, n.d.; Sancak, 2018: 59).

The Azeris, who were forced to immigrate on January 13, 1990, carried out actions focused on Armenians in Baku, and the racial conflict was moved to a different dimension with the entry of Soviet troops into Baku on January 19-20. On 26 January, the Soviet Minister of Defense stated that the occupation of the capital by Soviet troops was carried out to prevent the Azerbaijan Popular Front from taking power of the Communist Party. In the same year, Turkish foreign policy makers carefully avoided developing a discourse that would take the USSR central administration to the front regarding the ethnic tensions in the Caucasian republics affiliated to the USSR (Yapıcı, 2015: 429).

In the Treaty Establishing the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), signed by the Presidents of the three SSRs (now RF, Republic of Belarus and Ukraine) on 8 December 1991, it was stated that "the USSR as a subject of international law and geopolitical reality has ceased to exist". Thus, the Soviet Union disappeared one year and three weeks before the 70th anniversary of its existence; CIS, which is a new formation around the world, has emerged (Huseynov, 2003: 387).

In the negotiation held in Alma-Ata on 21 December 1991, the former USSR states (including Azerbaijan) except the Baltic States announced that they were included in this formation. The opposition, on the other hand, criticized participation in this formation, which is a continuation of the USSR. AHC leader Elçibey described it as a formation with no future. With the referendum held on December 29, the decision of independence was accepted and the state of Azerbaijan gained its independence approximately 70 years after the first (Sancak, 2018: 60).

Being aware of the fact that its Armed Forces are not sufficient, Azerbaijan recalled its soldiers in the Soviet army and abolished the autonomy of the Nagorno-Karabakh region with a decision passed by the Parliament on November 26, 1991 and transferred it directly to the control of the center (Yılmazçelik and Özdem, 2013: 19).

Azerbaijan's declaration of independence from the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan's official independence from the Soviet Union after the referendum, and the parliament's annulment of the autonomous status of the Nagorno-Karabakh region were events before the crisis (University of Central Arkansas).

While taking a political decision, it is more important to provide the conditions for implementing the decision. In addition to the fact that Azerbaijan did not have the power to implement this decision, it was also exposed to the increasing Armenian violence during January after the decision was taken. February 1992 will be a date when Armenian violence reached its peak. Regular Armenian troops equipped by Russia, Iran and Lebanon occupied the Azeri villages of Malbeyli, Karadağlı and Ağdaban in February, causing at least 99 Azeri Turks to die and 140 to be injured (Yılmazçelik and Özdem, 2013: 19).

In the tense environment with these developments, a great massacre took place on February 25-26, 1992, when the Armenians attacked Khojaly. According to Azerbaijani official data, a total of 613 people, 106 of whom were women and 83 of whom were children, were murdered. After this massacre, in which approximately 7000 people were forced to emigrate, President Muttalibov was forced to resign. Yakup Memedov was in the administration of the country until Ebulfeyz Elçibey became president on 7 June 1992 (Yılmazçelik and Özdem, 2013: 60; Sancak, 2018: 19). As a result of this disaster, the economic and social structure in the Khojaly region was deteriorated and the country's economy was seriously damaged (Yılmazçelik and Özdem, 2013: 92-93).

With the establishment of the CIS in the post-USSR period, Russia has shown that it will not easily give up on the region and the shape and ruthlessness of the policy it can follow. Russia's approach to the problem between Azerbaijan and Armenians developed in line with this policy in the following years. Despite all this, Muttalibov's signing of the CIS Joint Defense Agreement hardened the opposition and Muttalibov resigned in response to the increasing pressure. The powers of Muttalibov were taken by the Speaker of the Assembly Yakup Mammadov (Sancak, 2018: 60).

As a result of not having an army, insufficient weapons and helicopter power, and added fights for dominance in Baku, Azerbaijan lost 20% of its territory in 1993. In 1993, Heydar Aliyev took over the dominance and chose to stop the war immediately. For this purpose, the peace talks in the UN Minsk group could not be concluded due to the fact that Armenia and the UN member states, which constantly changed their minds, did not take the situation into account (Mustafayev, 2013: 287).

On January 3, 1993, the presidents of Russia and the USA made a joint call for the cessation of military hostilities. On April 3, 1993, President Abulfaz Elchibey declared a state of emergency after the ethnic-Armenian military attack. On 7 April 1993, the UN Security Council called for an end to military hostilities and called for the withdrawal of ethnic Armenian rebels from the occupied areas. Russia mediated the signing of a ceasefire agreement between ethnic Armenians and government representatives on April 8, 1993, and the ceasefire entered into force on June 27, 1993. NATO foreign ministers called for an immediate cessation of military hostilities on 11 June 1993 (University of Central Arkansas, n.d.).

The Milli Majlis of Azerbaijan announced the events that took place in the town of Khojaly in 1994 as genocide and called on international organizations and the world assembly to be recognized as "genocide" with the decision taken on February 27, 2007 (Yılmaz, 2013: 89).

Events have reached an unstoppable level. Aliyev was elected as the chairman of the Supreme Soviet of Azerbaijan on June 15, 1995. With a decision taken by the National Assembly on the night of 24-25 June, all the powers of Elchibey, who could not return to Baku under the control of the rebel soldiers, were taken and transferred to the Speaker of the Assembly, Haydar Aliyev. With the said decision, the period of Elchibey in Azerbaijan came to an end. Unlike Elchibey, Heydar Aliyev, as an experienced politician, stayed away from emotional politics and focused on the balance of power in his relations. The awareness of the support given by Russia and the USA to the Armenians did not hinder their efforts to maintain good relations with both powers. Diplomatic methods were also preferred in Karabakh, the biggest problem, but a positive development could not be achieved in solving the problem (Sancak, 2018: 66).

As a result of a ceasefire agreement signed in 1994, the war stopped and international peacekeeping forces made attempts to reach an agreement through peace. It cannot be said that Armenia, which had occupied 14 provinces, including the former Nagorno-Karabakh province and the seven provinces around it, with all its might, had difficulties in the said ceasefire. However, the same is not the case for Azerbaijan, where 20% of Azerbaijan's lands are occupied by Armenia. As a result, almost all of the society and political forces did not approve such a ceasefire (Allahverdiyev, 2010: 2).

Defense forces of Armenians and Karabakh liberated 85% of Karabakh territory from occupation in 1994. Especially Kubadlı, Fuzuli, Cebrayil, Zangilan and Kelbeceri, which were included in Azerbaijan after the revolution, are known as the places that were liberated from the occupation (Allahverdiyev, 2010: 99).

The OSCE delegation, which visited the region, gathered different representatives from Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as representatives of Azerbaijani Turks and Armenian populations of the former DKÖB, within the scope of the CIS Inter-Parliamentary Assembly in Bishkek on May 4-5, 1994. In the negotiation, the “Bishkek Protocol” was signed as a mediating step. In the said protocol, the names of Azerbaijan, Armenia, mediator state officials and only the Armenian representatives of the DKÖB were mentioned in the first place among the parties. This protocol formed the basis for the ceasefire agreement to be signed in the future (Caferov and Aslanlı, 2016: 250).



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