Table of contents introduction

CHAPTER III. SOCİAL FACTORS AFFECTİNG AZERBAİJAN

3.1. Demography

The first source of information about the population is the census.

The current population census was based on the 2009 census, and each year the number of births and permanent residences in the area was added to the population, and the number of deaths and displacements was subtracted from the population. After the results of the last population census in 2019 are ready, the relevant clarifications will be made on the number and composition of the population for the periods that preceded the previous census.

The population is divided into urban and rural population according to their place of residence. Urban areas include cities and settlements, and all other settlements are considered rural areas.

Different age groups are used depending on the purpose of the analysis.

Average annual population is the mathematical average of the population at the beginning and end of the year.

Age is the number of years of life, months for children under one year of age, and days for children under 1 month. Age information is obtained through a survey during the census. This information is determined by current calculations in accordance with the method of population movement for different ages from X to X + 1 years. Information on the current registration of demographic events is taken into account during the calculations.

Information on births and deaths is obtained on the basis of a monthly statistical analysis of the information contained in the birth and death certificates compiled by the Registration Departments of the Ministry of Justice. Only live births are included in the number of births.

Natural population growth is the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths in a calendar year.

The total birth rate is an indicator of the intensity of childbirth, measured by the ratio of the number of live births over a period of time to the average annual population. It is calculated for every 1000 people.

The overall mortality rate is an indicator of the intensity of death among the population. In a calendar year, the number of deaths is proportional to the average annual population, calculated per 1,000 people.

Natural growth rate - natural population growth can also be characterized by relative indicators. Natural population growth is calculated by dividing the average annual population by the difference in total births and deaths per 1,000 population.

Total fertility rate - the total fertility rate shows how many children a woman aged 15-49 can give birth to on average during the reproductive period.

This ratio is calculated by multiplying the age of birth by multiplying the length of each age interval (multiplied by one for one-year coefficients, five for five-year coefficients, etc.). As a result, the sum is divided by 1000, ie this figure is calculated for an average woman.

Gross reproduction rate is the average number of girls born to a woman during the reproductive period and the number of children born after a certain period of time to be replaced by a new generation of parents. The mortality factor is not taken into account in the calculation of this indicator, ie the probability of survival of mothers and newborn girls by the end of the reproductive period is assumed.

The gross reproduction rate of the population is calculated as the fertility rate of birth, but in contrast, only girls are taken into account in the calculation. The specific gravity of girls at birth is about 0.488 for women of all ages.

Net-reproduction ratio - Unlike gross-reproduction ratio, the net reproduction ratio takes into account the mortality factor (life tables are used). The net reproduction rate characterizes the replacement of the mother's offspring by the new generation of girls when they reach motherhood. Usually the ratio is calculated for an average woman. This figure can be calculated for 1000 women.

If this ratio is equal to 1.0, then the birth and death rates provide a simple reproduction of the population. If the net reproduction rate is less than or greater than 1.0, it means that the reproduction of the population is narrowed (ie, the number of children is less than the number of parents) or large (the number of children is more than the number of parents). ) is reproduction.

Infant mortality rate - characterizes infant mortality under one year (0 years). The infant mortality rate, unlike the overall mortality rate, is calculated not as the ratio of infant mortality to their average annual number, but as the ratio of the total number of live births.

This calculation also applies to children under the age of 5 (age group 0-4) and determines the infant mortality rate.

The source of information on the cause of death consists of notes in death certificates issued by a doctor (or paramedic) in connection with the cause of death, illness, accident, murder, suicide and other external influences.

Coding and processing of death information by causes is carried out in accordance with the X International Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death.

Mortality by cause of death - is determined by dividing the number of deaths from the causes of death during the year by the average annual population at this age. In contrast to the total mortality and age ratios, it is calculated per 100,000 live births, and for infants under 1 year of age, 10,000 per live birth. Standardized mortality rates are calculated to eliminate the effects of age differences in the population.

Life expectancy at birth (for age 0) - indicates the number of years that each newborn can live on average. Here, it is assumed that the mortality rate will remain unchanged throughout the life of the newborn at the level of the year in which the indicator was calculated for each age group. Life expectancy at birth is obtained by calculating life schedules.

Marriage is a form of relationship that defines the rights and responsibilities of men and women towards each other and their children. The legal relationship between a husband and wife is the registration of their marriage in the Registration Department of the Ministry of Justice.

Current statistics on the natural movement of the population take into account only legally registered marriages. The census, on the other hand, takes into account those who are actually married, regardless of whether they are officially registered or not.

The total marriage rate is the ratio of the number of registered marriages to the average annual population, calculated per 1,000 people.

Divorce (divorce) - the final legal annulment of the marriage of a married couple gives the parties the right to remarry. The fact of dissolution of marriage is considered dissolved after registration in the Registration Departments of the Ministry of Justice.

The total divorce rate is the ratio of the number of divorces during the period to the average annual number of the population during that period. It is calculated for every 1000 people.

Information on migration between the Republic of Azerbaijan and CIS countries and other foreign countries is provided in the General Passport of the Ministry of Internal Affairs during the registration of the population for permanent residence. Obtained as a result of statistical processing of information in the form of quarterly (annual) official statistical report on foreigners and stateless persons in the Republic of Azerbaijan ”(Migration).

Arrivals are the number of persons who have been granted a permanent residence permit, and those who have left are the number of persons who have been granted a permanent residence permit (including foreigners and stateless persons permanently residing in Azerbaijan).

The terms "arrivals" and "departures" characterize migration because the same person can change their permanent place of residence several times a year.

Increase (decrease) in migration is the difference between the number of arrivals and departures in a calendar year.

Migration processes are considered an important factor in socio-economic development. As in the entire post-Soviet space, thousands of people are involved in the migration process in Azerbaijan. In general, it is necessary to assess the impact of migration processes on the socio-economic and demographic development of each country. During the period since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, the migration processes of the newly independent states have been different depending on the level of socio-economic development, the dynamics of the productive forces, the location of the territories and the structure of the population. Since gaining independence in the early 1990s, various aspects of the migration process of the population from the socio-economic (including demographic) point of view have become noticeable in our republic. These include: the resettlement of the local population in central and regional cities as a result of the war in the first years of our independence; travel of citizens from rural areas to central cities, including neighboring countries, due to the difficult socio-economic situation in the regions; formation of new settlements as a result of urban population growth, etc. The last two cases have become more typical during the twentieth century. For example, the characteristics of population migration were different in different regions of the country, especially in rural and urban areas, due to trends in socio-economic development. That is why the migration of the population in the territory of the republic, both in the former socialist system and in the conditions of modern market relations, had its own peculiarities.

In 2015-2020, an increase of 8.2 thousand people in the participation of the population in migration processes was recorded in the country, which means an average increase of 1.64 thousand people in recent years. The main reason for the declining trend in the field of migration in recent years (2001-2015) is the training of qualified and professional specialists in various fields in the country, meeting the excess domestic demand, as well as increasing demand for them in the labor market of regional countries. has been associated with. Specifically, the main reason for the increase in population migration in the country in 2008-2010 was the highest dynamic economic growth rate in the country among the post-Soviet countries, as well as the implementation of international projects, expansion of entrepreneurship in the regions, increasing investor interest in our country.

It should be noted that serious trends in the dynamics of changes in the migration balance have been observed in our country. For example, if we look at the migration gap for 2005-2015 (including urban and rural areas), this can be seen more clearly (Table 5).