Water Resources Management in Central Asia
Working towards a solution to the water conflict?
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Working towards a solution to the water conflict?
Despite such obvious mutual interest in bargaining, and the great op- portunities and potential for mutual benefit, the upstream and down- stream states have failed to come up with a long-term solution over water resources management. The constant negotiations on water distribution Bektur Sakiev 82 Documentos CIDOB, Asia Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley can be characterised as an ad hoc agreement (bilateral and multilateral), arrived at simply as a temporary solution that has usually been violated in the short term by one side or the other. When a state/party in such agreements felt that its leverage was greater, and thus it could get a better deal, it often broke its commitments. Such unstable results in negotiations, due to the permanent violation of the agreed terms, explain why the water issue can be defined as a failure by Central Asian states to resolve the issue, or can also be explained by their hidden agenda that led their lack of interest in solving them. It should be noted that the use and distribution of water resources have been a source of various conflicts from the very beginning, at state level as well as at the level of ordinary people residing in the Ferghana Valley. One of the clearest examples of such a confrontation were the tensions over water resources between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan in 1997, which led to a Uzbek military build-up across from the water reservoir located close to its border, but on Kyrgyzstan’s territory. This move raised concerns and anger among the Kyrgyz government and population. The Kyrgyz government adopted a resolution declaring that water was a tradable commodity, by which it codified its right to use it for its own profit. The government also threatened to sell water to China if Uzbekistan failed to pay for it (Zanidin, http://meria.idc.ac.il) In response, in February 1998, Uzbekistan cut off gas supplies to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This act also aroused anger in those two states, with the Kyrgyz government using especially strong rhetoric when denouncing it. The Uzbek side replied with similarly harsh words. Such cases became usual in the interstate relations between the region’s countries over water and energy issues. Recent events regarding disputes over water resources show that not much has changed. One incident that took place in Batken oblast in March 2008 was when around 150 Tajik citizens entered Kyrgyz territo- ry and tried to destroy the dam that was preventing water from flowing into Tajik land. This shows how disputes over water resources are taking Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley 83 Número 25, 2009 a new form when ordinary people, residents of the Ferghana Valley, try to solve their problems on their own 1 . This, of course, is a dangerous trend, due to the higher probability of conflicts among people residing near the valley’s borderline. In light of growing water consumption of all the regions’ states and the emerging energy crisis in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, it is important that all state-parties address the issue of water management with serious- ness and responsibility. The signing of long-term agreements on water issues, and especially the ability to work out necessary mechanisms for the appropriate control of these agreements that will ensure their imple- mentation, is crucial today, more than ever before. However, analysing developments in current situation, the above-mentioned new challenges that Central Asian states currently face appear rather as obstacles instead of as incentives to the governments. Due to the energy crisis in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the govern- ments of these states started actively working on projects to build new Hydro-Power Stations (HES) which would create bigger problems for downstream countries. Attracting investors for building Kambarata 1 and 2 hydro-power stations in Kyrgyzstan and Rogun HES in Tajikistan brought some results. The Russian government agreed to help the Kyrgyz authorities in the construction of the stations, and allocated $1.7 billion for such purposes (Kirsanov, http://www.eurasianhome.org) The Tajik government also achieved a preliminary agreement with the Russian government to invest in its hydro-power sector. Such news has already brought negative reactions from the leaders of downstream states, espe- cially from Uzbekistan. The possibility of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan being deprived of natural gas supplies by Uzbekistan triggered a dramatic increase in gas prices. Kyrgyz consumers suffered an increase from $145 to $240 (for 1,000 1. «Kabar News Agency». Kazakhstan. February 1, 2009. www.kabar.ru. Bektur Sakiev 84 Documentos CIDOB, Asia Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley cubic metres) 2 . This will create a huge deficit in the small budgets of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the future and will directly affect water is- sues in the very near future, when upstream countries try to use water as a leverage to get a better deal on gas prices with Uzbekistan. Such opposed interests between the upstream and downstream countries regarding the region’s resources have been further complicated by another common problem- border disputes. Though in general the delimitation of borders among the region’s states has been relatively successful, there are still some disputes regarding some parts of the borderlines. Because of this, to this day most Central Asian states do not have fully delimited borders with their neighbours. This is especially evident in the case of Uzbekistan, which has ongoing border disputes with all the countries in the region. Most of the current disputed border areas are in the Ferghana Valley. Within the valley, the most acute tensions are between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan over two enclaves that belong to the latter. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan also claim parts of each other’s territories. Numerous clashes have occurred on the Tajik-Uzbek and Kyrgyz-Uzbek borders leading to the closing of border zones and the placing of numerous land mines by the Uzbek Army. Thus, the Ferghana Valley has become not only an area with a water shortage but also an area of border disputes, which complicates overall inter-state relations. Now, after that brief summary of the existing situation regarding problems of water resources in the region (and particularly in the Ferghana Valley), it is important to observe what water resources mean to the Central Asian states and what particular steps have been taken to ensure the management of water resources and to settle the disputes between states over this issue. All Central Asian states recognise water resources as being the most important resource and the main factor of social and economic develop- 2. «AKIpress News Agency» December 24, 2008. www.akipress.kg Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley 85 Número 25, 2009 ment in the region. Thus each state has adopted its own water code and laws. According to clause 4 of Kazakhstan’s Water Code, “the State owns the water in Kazakhstan”; clause 4 of Tajikistan’s Water Code states that “the State owns all water in the Republic of Tajikistan in accordance with its Constitution”; as clause 3 of Uzbek Law “On Water and Water Use” states “water is the state property – national treasure of Uzbekistan. The water must be used rationally and is protected by the State”. Clause 5 of Kyrgyzstan’s water law declares that “the State owns the State water fund of Kyrgyzstan” (Kasimova, 2000). In the Central Asia region, Kazakhstan enjoys the largest reserves of coal (88%) and the third largest of natural gas. Uzbekistan pos- sesses 23% of natural gas reserves, and Turkmenistan, 44%. Most of the known gas resourses are located in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Meanwhile the majority of the water resources (two major rivers: the Syr-Darya and the Amu-Darya) originate in and be- come full-flowing watercourses in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These two rivers provide the lower-lying countries with 115 km 3 of water, out of which almost 90% is used for irrigation and the remaining 10% for public utilities and industrial purposes. This can be explained by simply attending to the particular agricultural exploitation in the region. For instance, over 2 million tons of cotton fibre is collected in the region, which represents nearly 94% of all cotton production in the former USSR. As I have mentioned previously, during Soviet times the water manage- ment and energy supplies were strictly centralised under a single energy system. A common gas system provided all the Central Asian countries with gas. In return, the hydro and reservoir systems of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were strictly scheduled for generating and distributing water during irrigation periods. At present, this integrated system of the water, energy and fuel supply has been broken up, and these circumstances have left Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with a severe energy shortage, despite possessing a considerable hydro energy capacity. Bektur Sakiev 86 Documentos CIDOB, Asia Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley Ecological disasters such as the Aral Sea, soil erosion , pollution of wa- ter and land resources with chemicals and radioactive elements inflicted by anthropogenic factors were all inherited from the Soviet regime by new Central Asian countries. These issues demand joint efforts and co- operation today from all the states in the region. Aware of this fact, governments in Central Asia have made certain arrangements for the joint management of water and energy resources and conservation of the environment. For instance, on September 12 1991, the region’s water ministers expressed their commitment to share those resources on a mu- tually beneficial and equal basis. Less than a year later, in 1992, an inter- governmental agreement was signed, establishing the Intergovernmental Coordination Water Commission (ICWC). The Commission has the task of distributing water resources –annually– among the countries, and in accordance with the reservoirs’ schedules. The decisions of the ICWC are mandatory in all five states (Kasimova, 2000). In 1992, the Electrical Energy Council of the United Electric Energy System (UEES) of Central Asia was founded. The council convenes on a quarterly basis and is responsible for addressing issues related to ensur- ing the stable operation of the UEES; specifically, the Council makes decisions to determine the volumes of nodal transfers of energy and its capacity. It also coordinates the operation mode of the Naryn Cascade –the Syr-Darya great cascade and reservoir. Moreover, in 1993 the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) was established, with the aim of promoting a rational use of water that could stop and even reverse the drying-up of the Aral Sea. In 2001, the Kyrgyz Parliament adopted a law “On Interstate Use of Waterworks and Water Resources of the Kyrgyz Republic”, which was criticised by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Under this law, Kyrgyzstan declared that water should be recognised as a commodity based on in- ternational practices and conferences held in Dublin and Rio de Janeiro (Usubaliev, 2001). Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley 87 Número 25, 2009 Kyrgyzstan justified selling water with expenses incurred to the repub- lic through the maintenance and operation of a huge system of water reservoirs. In fact, Kyrgyzstan uses 20% of all water generated in the res- ervoirs, the remaining 80% goes for the irrigation and agricultural needs of the two other downstream states: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Also, the Kyrgyz Parliament stated that even though all the objects of water management were constructed during Soviet times, with Moscow’s financial back-up, the expenses were later calculated as debts to Russia, and paid back by the Kyrgyz Republic. Moreover, all those reservoirs and dams caused the submersion of fertile lands belonging to the republic, thus de- creasing the amount of land suitable for cultivation. And finally, probably the most important issue in this debate was the energy issue. Due to the lack of oil and gas supply, Kyrgyzstan had to use its hydropower facilities for generating electricity in wintertime for its population, and preserving water during summer when the demand for electricity was not so high. However, despite the fact Kyrgyzstan has adopted the law, it was not recog- nised by other countries, and heated discussions are still taking place. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are interested in using water resources for generating power in order to fulfil their domestic demand and also for export. Meanwhile Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan insist on using the water reservoir system constructed during the USSR and new planned hydropower stations for mainly irrigation purposes. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are demanding increasing financial compen- sation from their neighbouring countries for the maintenance of hydro- power stations in irrigation mode, in which Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are interested. In recent years, Bishkek and Dushanbe have been unhappy about the significant losses and expenses accrued for main- taining the hydropower infrastructure. Bishkek is especially active in this matter, having suggested that water be treated as a commodity and that payment should be required for it (currently Kyrgyzstan is receiving com- pensation from Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan for the surplus electricity it Bektur Sakiev 88 Documentos CIDOB, Asia Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley produces). However, paid water usage is unrealistic in Central Asia, due to the high risk of social and political unrest in all the countries. Rapid development of hydropower facilities over irrigation may become the complementary factor for tension in the region. Lately, Tajikistan has shown serious energy ambitions. Devoid of oil and gas, the Tajik leadership is focused on accelerating the development of the hydropower sector. By 2010-2015, Tajikistan is planning to free itself from Uzbek energy dependence and to start exporting electricity to Iran, Pakistan and India (approximately 8-10 billion KwH per year). The Tajik Ministry of Energy’s construction schemes of demonstrate the large scale and seriousness of its intentions. The government is planning the construction of 14 hydropower stations with an annual capacity of 86.3 billion KwH in Pyanj River, the main tributary to the Amu-Darya River. Tajikistan’s economy will reap great benefits from the construction of Dashtijum Hydropower Station, with an annual capacity of 15.6 bil- lion KwH and with a dam that has a volume of 17.6 km 3 . This project has been presented as a profit-generating enterprise to investors from the US and Pakistan. China has expressed great interest in building a hydroelectric power station on the Zeravshan River. This has already brought a cautious reaction from Uzbek officials. Experts warn that Dushanbe’s one-sided wa- ter-energy policy may cause tensions in the region, and may in the future result in trans-border conflict, firstly with Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan is trying to keep up with Tajikistan on the matter of en- hancing its energy capabilities. Presently it is searching for investors for the construction of cascades at Kambarata 1 and Kambarata 2 Hydro power stations on the Upper Syr-Darya. The Kazakh government made a call to “hinder the construction of Kambarata Hydro Power Station on Kyrgyzstan’s territory”, exploitation of which will break the fragile balance of the electricity and water supply in the whole region”. Indeed, Bishkek and Astana have come to an agreement on their water-energy demands. The special Kyrgyz-Kazakh commission and expert groups have worked extensively and with positive results on Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley 89 Número 25, 2009 water management in the Talas and Chu rivers 3 . Kazakhstan has also agreed to finance Kyrgyzstan’s hydropower infrastructure on a joint basis. Over the long-term, the problem with water use in Central Asia will be serious due to rapid population growth. According to experts’ as- sessments, demographic growth in Central Asia will inevitably increase the demand for water by 40% in the coming 20 years. Such a situation might put more pressure on interstate conflicts. All the countries in the region bear economic losses due to the un- resolved water issues. For instance, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Central Asia’s annual losses consti- tute $1,7 billion due to insufficient water management (UNDP). Paradoxically, there is sufficient water in Central Asia for everyone if it is used rationally. Excessive water loss is caused by outdated land cultiva- tion systems, for which the water supply needed for one unit of produc- tion exceeds the international standards by three times, (sometimes even ten times). According to experts, application of up-to-date agricultural technologies and rational water consumption will enable the region to save up to half of the all trans-border river flow. Apparently, the inte- grated management of water resources will optimise the performance of hydro stations in accordance with national and regional interests 4 . As I mentioned before, Kazakhstan is situated in the area with the least water, and experiences a permanent scarcity of drinking water. Amongst the countries of the Community of Independent States (CIS), Kazakhstan possesses the least water provided: 37,000 m 3 per km 2 ; 6,000 m 3 of water per person annually 5 . 3. www.talaschu.kz/ — official web-page of Kyrgyz-Kazakh joint commission on use of Talas and Chu rivers. 4. www.caresd.net/iwrm/ru/Prodoc-%20Feb%2010%20rus.doc — National Plan on Inter- grated management of water resources of Kazakhstan. 5. www.undp.kz/library_of_publications/files/2496–16076.pdf — «Water Resources of Ka- zakhstan in New Millennium» Review. Bektur Sakiev 90 Documentos CIDOB, Asia Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley The intensiveness of water consumption exceeds the natural water sup- ply. Kazakhstan’s scientists claim that a lack of water is creating a serious threat to sustainable development in Kazakhstan. This is explained by the fact that only 56% of surface waters are formed inside the country, the remaining 44% comes from neighbouring countries. Moreover, apart from the scarcity of water resources, water pollution is a serious issue. It has reached its highest point due to the extensive development of industry. For instance, the activation of industry, and exploring and developing oil and gas go hand in hand with the increased pollution of rivers and the Caspian Sea. Currently, Kazakhstan enjoys favourable economic conditions for the stage-by-stage solution of water problems on a national as well as a regional level. The country has already made positive attempts in this respect. The Kazakhstan Water Resources Commission,set up in June 2004 within the framework of UNDP, and with the support of the Norwegian Government, the British Department for International Development (DFID) and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), is car- rying out a national Plan on Integrated Management of Water Resources (www.caresd.net/iwrm/ru/Prodoc-%20Feb%2010%20rus.doc). However, despite numerous meetings of Central Asia’s leaders and the traditional signing of agreements declaring their willingness to cooper- ate, it is clear that the water resources issue demands more complex, deeper measures and compromise. Until today, no state in the region has showed real interest in solving this issue. One might think that the Central Asian states are more interested in keeping the issue unresolved rather than doing something to bring solutions to the water disputes between the states. The situation will change as new challenges emerge regarding water resources, and maybe then the region’s states will realise that it is better to cooperate than to isolate themselves from each other. Land and Water Management patterns in Ferghana Valley 91 Número 25, 2009 Yüklə 0,54 Mb. Dostları ilə paylaş:
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