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Davlatning inqirozli siyosati



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KURS ISHI

Davlatning inqirozli siyosati[tahrir | manbasini tahrirlash]
Foiz stavkasi va inqirozlar (boshqa rangli ustun shaklida). Grafikdan koʻrish mumkinki, deyarli barcha inqirozlardan oldin uzoq vaqt davomida past foiz stavkalari amalda boʻlgan, keyin esa foiz stavkalari keskin oshgan va oqibatda iqtisodiy inqiroz yuzaga kelgan. Davlat inqirozni yumshatish va iqtisodiyotni stimullash uchun yana foiz stavkasini tushirgan.
Dunyodagi koʻpgina yirik inqirozlar davlatlarning notoʻgʻri makroiqtisodiy siyosatlari yoki iqtisodiyotni yetarli darajada nazorat qilmasliklari oqibatida sodir boʻlgan. Buyuk Depressiya, dot-com bubble (texnologiyalar bozoridagi inqiroz) va jahon iqtisodiy inqirozi shular jumlasidan. Texnologiyalar bozorida economic bubble paydo boʻlishiga investitsion firmalarning qalbaki moliyaviy hisobotlari, kompaniyalar va OAV tomonidan berilgan yolgʻon axborot sababchi boʻlgan[197][198][199][200]. Buyuk Depressiya yuzaga kelishida esa yuqori boj tariflari, Federal Rezerv Tizimining moliya bozoridagi keng qamrovli spekulyatsiyani vaqtida bartaraf etmaganligi, iqtisodiy faollik past boʻlgan sharoitda foizlarni keskin koʻtarishi va 1930—1931-yillarda yuzaga kelgan bank run sabab qilib koʻrsatiladi[201][202][203][204][205]. Iqtisodchilar Emi Nakamura va Jón Steinssonning 2018-yildagi xulosalariga koʻra, shuncha inqirozlardan soʻng ham, davlatlar tomonidan olib borilayotgan turli makroiqtisodiy siyosatlar oqibatlari har doim ham ijobiy natijalarga olib kelmayapti va shu sababli bunday siyosatlar tanqid ostida qolmoqda[206]. COVID-19 pandemiyasi paytida qabul qilingan iqtisodiy qarorlar yetarli darajada samarali emasligi sababli, u iqtisodiyotga ham, odamlar hayotini saqlashda ham kutilganidek yordam bermadi[207][208][209][210].
Empirik tadqiqotlarga koʻra, hukumatning foiz stavkasini pasaytirish siyosati koʻp hollarda keyingi inqirozlarga sharoit yaratadi[211]. Iqtisodiy liberalizm gʻoyalariga ega boʻlgan iqtisodchi F.Hayekning fikriga koʻra, Markaziy banklar tomonidan foiz stavkasining tushirilishi nafaqat investitsiyalar hajmini sunʼiy darajada oshiradi, balki notoʻgʻri investitsion siyosatni paydo qiladi. Bunday investitsion siyosat sharoitida uzoq muddatlarga moʻljallangan investitsiyalar hajmi qisqa muddatli investitsiyalarga nisbatan keskin darajada koʻpayib ketadi. Oqibatda iqtisodiyotda muvozanat buziladi va iqtisodiy bum inqirozga aylanadi[212][213]. Bu jarayon iqtisodiyotda „Hangover theory“ deb yuritiladi va hozirgacha past foiz stavkalari tufayli yuzaga kelgan inqirozlarni asoslashda ishlatiladi[214][215].
Iqtisodiy oʻsish[tahrir | manbasini tahrirlash]
Makroiqtisodiy siyosatning yana bir muhim vazifasi bu iqtisodiy oʻsishga erishish hisoblanadi. Nazariy darajada daromadlar tengsizligi, davlatlar orasidagi iqtisodiy oʻsish sur’atlaridagi farq va barqaror rivojlanish bilan iqtisodiy oʻsish nazariyasi shugʻullanadi. Bu masalalarni oʻrganuvchi birinchi tadqiqotlar XVIII asrda, asosiy gʻoyasi tugʻilish koʻrsatkichini pasaytirishga qaratilgan maltuschilik taʼlimotida aks ettirilgan. Thomas Robert Malthus oʻzining „Nufus qonuni toʻgʻrisida tajriba“ asarida aholi soni juda tez koʻpayib boradi, oziq-ovqat mahsulotlarining oʻsishi esa, ancha orqada qolib ketadi, degan fikrlarni keltirgan[216]. Lekin, Malthus gʻoyasi matematik jihatdan aniq tasdiqlanmaganligi, texnologik progress va inson xulq-atvorini hisobga olmasligi, empirik maʼlumotlardan keskin farq qilganligi[217] tufayli, koʻplab olimlar tomonidan tanqid qilingan[218][219]. 1930-yillarda Big push modeliga asoslangan keynschilik gʻoyalari avj oldi. Bu gʻoyaning maqsadi davlat investitsiyalari orqali Industrial oʻsishni taʼminlash edi. 1950-yillar oxirlariga kelib, iqtisodiyotda „Solow modeli“ singari neoklassik modellar aktuallashib bordi. Neoklassik modellar faqatgina iqtisodiy muvozanatga erishish va uni taʼminlash masalalarinigina oʻrganar edi[220][221]. 1980-yillar soʻnggida tuzilgan modellar iqtisodiy oʻsish sababi sifatida tashqi samaralarni koʻrsatgan. Ammo, bu modellardagi gʻoyalar amalda oʻz tasdigʻini topmadi. 1990-yillar boshlarida esa, tadqiqot va texnologik ishlanmalar sektorida yuzaga keluvchi monopol foyda hisobiga iqtisodiy oʻsishni taʼminovchi nazariya ishlab chiqildi[222]. XXI asrda yangi klassik maktab va yangi institutsionalizm maktabi iqtisodiy oʻsishga bogʻliq turli modellarni ishlab chiqishdi; yagona oʻsish nazariyasiga asoslangan model vujudga keldi[223].
Iqtisodiy oʻsish omillari[224][225][226]:

  • Mehnat (iqtisodiyotda ishlangan umumiy soatlar soni);

  • Inson kapitali;

  • Ashyoviy kapital miqdori;

  • Texnologik progress;

  • Erkin savdo;

  • Mamlakatdagi erkinlik darajasi[227].

Manbalar[tahrir | manbasini tahrirlash]

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    6. ↑ „The fight against unemployment, European Parliament“.

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    12. ↑ Greenlaw & Taylor 2018, ss. 240–244.

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    49. ↑ Marshall 1920, s. 203.

    50. ↑ „John Maynard Keynes, IMF“.

    51. ↑ „We’re All Keynesians Now: The Economic Effects of the Great Depression“.

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    54. ↑ Mankiw, N. Gregory. "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer". The Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (4): 36.

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    56. ↑ Tashmatov, Asatullayev & Allaberganov 2019, s. 256.

    57. ↑ „The Fed – What is inflation and how does the Federal Reserve evaluate changes in the rate of inflation?“. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (9-sentyabr 2016-yil). 17-iyul 2021-yilda asl nusxadan arxivlandi. Qaraldi: 3-noyabr 2021-yil.

    58. ↑ „Monetarist Theory: Economic Theory of Money Supply“.

    59. ↑ „What is the difference between monetary policy and fiscal policy, and how are they related?“.

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    61. ↑ Roger W. Spencer & William P. Yohe, 1970. "The 'Crowding Outʼ of Private Expenditures by Fiscal Policy Actions, " Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, October, pp.12-24

    62. ↑ Tashmatov, Asatullayev & Allaberganov 2019, ss. 254–255.

    63. ↑ „Theory of rational expectations, Britannica“.

    64. ↑ Sargent, Thomas J.; Wallace, Neil (1976). "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy". Journal of Monetary Economics 2 (2): 169–83. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(76)90032-5.

    65. ↑ Sargent, T. J. (1979). "A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure". Journal of Monetary Economics 5: 133–35. doi:10.1016/0304-3932(79)90029-1.

    66. ↑ Sargent, T. J. (1977). "The Demand for Money during Hyperinflations under Rational Expectations: I". International Economic Review 18 (1): 59–82. doi:10.2307/2525769.

    67. ↑ Sargent, T. J.; Fand, D.; Goldfeld, S. (1973). "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment". Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1973 (2): 429–80. doi:10.2307/2534097.

    68. ↑ Chapter 1. Snowdon, Brian and Vane, Howard R., (2005). Modern Macroeconomics: Its Origin, Development and Current State. Edward Elgar Publishing, ISBN 1-84542-208-2

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    73. ↑ Robert D. Atkinson. „Supply-side Follies: Why Conservative Economics Fails, Liberal Economics Falters, and Innovation Economics Is the Answer“ // Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield. — 2006.

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    76. ↑ „Supply-Side Theory: Definition and Comparison to Demand-Side“.

    77. ↑ Olson, Mancur (1982). "Stagflation and the Political Economy of the Decline in Productivity". The American Economic Review 72 (2): 143–148.

    78. ↑ Holt, Jeff „A Summary of the Primary Causes of the Housing Bubble and the Resulting Credit Crisis: A Non-Technical Paper“. 2009, 8, 1, 120-129. The Journal of Business Inquiry. 17-oktyabr 2014-yilda asl nusxadan arxivlandi. Qaraldi: 15-fevral 2013-yil.

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    134. ↑ Greenlaw & Taylor 2018, ss. 200–217.

    135. ↑ Keynes 1936, ss. 91–93.

    136. ↑ „What Factors Cause Shifts in Aggregate Demand?“.

    137. ↑ „Shifts in aggregate demand, Khan Academy“.

    138. ↑ Keynes 1936, ss. 148–149.

    139. ↑ „Short-run aggregate supply, Khan Academy“.

    140. ↑ Keynes 1936, ss. 178–183.

    141. ↑ „Long-run aggregate supply, Khan Academy“.

    142. ↑ „Long-Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS) Definition“.

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    146. ↑ Findlay, David W (1999). "The IS-LM Model: Is There a Connection between Slopes and the Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policy?". The Journal of Economic Education 30 (4): 373—382. doi:10.2307/1182951..

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    148. ↑ Asqarova, Zaxidov & Djumayev 2019, ss. 181–182.

    149. ↑ „Solow Growth Model“.

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    154. ↑ „Marshall Plan 1947—1997: A German View“.

    155. ↑ „The Japanese Economic Miracle, Barceley Economic Review“.

    156. ↑ Liu, Haoyuan „日德战后经济奇迹（Japanese and Germany Postwar Economic Miracle）“. Finance World.

    157. ↑ Braunthal, Gerard. "The Death of the German Economic Miracle". Current History 54 (321): 275—280.

    158. ↑ Nielsen, Barry „The Lost Decade: Lessons From Japan's Real Estate Crisis“ (en). Investopedia. Qaraldi: 26-may 2020-yil.

    159. ↑ „「失われた30年」に向かう日本“ (ja). Newsweek日本版 (23-dekabr 2010-yil). Qaraldi: 18-oktyabr 2020-yil.

    160. ↑ Cláudia Duarte, José R. Maria, Sharmin Sazedj (2020). "Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions". Economic Modelling 92: 126-146. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2020.06.011.

    161. ↑ Asqarova, Zaxidov & Djumayev 2019, ss. 42–43.

    162. ↑ Shodmonov & Xodiyev 2017, ss. 525–527.

    163. ↑ Kitchin, Joseph. (1923) (en). «Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors». 5.

    164. ↑ (fr) «Des Crises commerciales et leur retour periodique en France, en Angleterre, et aux Etats-Unis». 5 (Paris: Guillaumin nashri). 1923.

    165. ↑ Kuznets S. (1930) (en). «Secular Movements in Production and Prices. Their Nature and their Bearing upon Cyclical Fluctuations» (Boston: Houghton Mifflin nashri).

    166. ↑ Черепков А.. «Теория «Длинных волн» Н. Д. Кондратьева».

    167. ↑ Shodmonov & Xodiyev 2017, ss. 532–533.

    168. ↑ William D, Nordhaus (1975). "The Political Business Cycle". The Review of Economic Studies 42 (2): 169–190. doi:10.2307/2296528.

    169. ↑ Robert E, Lucas (1975). "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle". Journal of Political Economy 83 (6): 1113–1144.

    170. ↑ Kydland, Finn E (1982). "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations". Econometrica 50 (6): 1345–1370. doi:10.2307/1913386.

    171. ↑ „Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth“.

    172. ↑ „BUSINESS CYCLES. A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process“.

    173. ↑ Trotta V., Matheus (2023). "Business cycle theories after Keynes: A brief review considering the notions of equilibrium and instability". Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 64: 134—143. doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2022.12.004.

    174. ↑ „What Is an Overheated Economy?“.

    175. ↑ „Inflation, IMF“.

    176. ↑ H., Hawkins, Kevin. Unemployment. Penguin, 1987. ISBN 0-14-022763-6. OCLC 21972786. 

    177. ↑ „Stimulating the economy and employment, International Labour Organization“.

    178. ↑ „What Is Economic Stimulus?“.

    179. ↑ „What is Contractionary Policy? The economic times“.

    180. ↑ Makin, Tony (1998). "When Contractionary Fiscal Policy Is Expansionary". When Contractionary Fiscal Policy Is Expansionary 5 (4): 419—426.

    181. ↑ „Fiscal policy, Britannica“.

    182. ↑ Perotti, Roberto (1999). "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad". Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad 114 (4): 1399–1436.

    183. ↑ „Типы фискальной политики государства“.

    184. ↑ Asqarova, Zaxidov & Djumayev 2019, ss. 153–155.

    185. ↑ Sharp, Ansel M.; Khan, Mohammad (1980). "Automatic Fiscal Policy, 1966-1975". Nebraska Journal of Economics and Business 19 (3): 5—20.

    186. ↑ Palley, Thomas (2001). "The Case Against Budget Surpluses". Challenge 44 (6): 13—27.

    187. ↑ „What Is a Budget Surplus? What's the Impact, and Pros & Cons? Investopedia“.

    188. ↑ „Crowding out, Khan Academy“.

    189. ↑ Mishkin 2011, ss. 6–10.

    190. ↑ „Instruments and main operations of Monetary policy“.

    191. ↑ Atkeson, Andrew, Chari, V. V., Kehoe, Patrick J., & Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (2007). "On the Optimal Choice of a Monetary Policy Instrument". Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (394): 34.

    192. ↑ Матвеева 2007, ss. 375–382.

    193. ↑ „Open market operations“.

    194. ↑ „Repurchase Agreement (Repo): Definition, Examples, and Risks“.

    195. ↑ Mishkin 2011, ss. 480–481.

    196. ↑ „The Transmission of Monetary Policy, Reserve Bank of Australia“.

    197. ↑ „Ex-WorldCom CEO Ebbers found guilty on all counts - Mar. 15, 2005“. CNN. Qaraldi: 20-iyun 2021-yil.

    198. ↑ Bhattacharya, Utpal, Neal Galpin, Rina Ray, and Xiaoyun Yu. "The Role of the Media in the Internet IPO Bubble.". The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 44 (3): 657—682.

    199. ↑ „7 Worst Accounting Scandals in U.S. History“.

    200. ↑ „After the Ball Is Over: Investor Remedies in the Wake of the Dot-Com Crash and Recent Corporate Scandals“.

    201. ↑ Mazumder, Sandeep; Wood, John H. (2021). "The Cause of the Great Depression: The Decision to Resume the Gold Standard on Prewar Terms". The Independent Review 26 (1): 133—151.

    202. ↑ „Monetary Failures of the Great Depression“.

    203. ↑ „The Great Depression“.

    204. ↑ „Banking Panics of 1930—1931“.

    205. ↑ „Causes of the decline“.

    206. ↑ Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jón (2018). "Identification in Macroeconomics" (en). Journal of Economic Perspectives 32 (3): 59–86. doi:10.1257/jep.32.3.59. ISSN 0895-3309.

    207. ↑ REDBIRD, BETH, LAUREL HARBRIDGE-YONG, and RACHEL DAVIS MERSEY (2022). "The Social and Political Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Introduction". RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences 8 (8): 1—30.

    208. ↑ „WHO Recommends Nations Lift or Ease COVID-19-Related Travel Bans“.

    209. ↑ „Macroeconomic impact of COVID-19 in China and policy suggestions“.

    210. ↑ „Macroeconomic policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis in emerging market and developing economies: Current outcomes and evolving challenges“.

    211. ↑ „What are the risks of a prolonged period of low interest rates?“.

    212. ↑ White, Lawrence H. (1999). "Hayek’s Monetary Theory and Policy: A Critical Reconstruction.". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33 (1): 109—120. doi:10.2307/2601142.

    213. ↑ „Friedrich August Hayek“.

    214. ↑ „The Hangover Theory?“.

    215. ↑ „Investment Hangover and the Great Recession“.

    216. ↑ Tashmatov, Asatullayev & Allaberganov 2019, ss. 146–149.

    217. ↑ „Malthusian Theory Has Always Been False“.

    218. ↑ WILTGEN, RICHARD J. (1998). "MARX’S AND ENGELS’S CONCEPTION OF MALTHUS: The Heritage of a Critique.". Organization & Environment 11 (4): 451—460.

    219. ↑ Woolston, Howard B.. "The Dynamics of Population: A Criticism of Malthus.". The Journal of Social Forces 2 (2): 169—177. doi:10.2307/3005334.

    220. ↑ „What Is the Neoclassical Growth Theory, and What Does It Predict?“.

    221. ↑ „Neoclassical growth theory“.

    222. ↑ Acemoglu 2009, ss. 613–617.

    223. ↑ Acemoglu 2009, ss. 781–792.

    224. ↑ Greenlaw & Taylor 2018, ss. 166–170.

    225. ↑ „The analysis of growth, Britannica“.

    226. ↑ Матвеева 2007, ss. 208–210.

    227. ↑ Gwartney, James D., (1999). "Economic Freedom and the Environment for Economic Growth". Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics 155 (4): 643—663.

Adabiyotlar[tahrir | manbasini tahrirlash]

  • Acemoglu, Daron. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth (en). Princeton University Press, 2009 — 990 bet. 

  • Asqarova, M. T.; Zaxidov, Gʻ.E.; Djumayev, Z. A.. Makroiqtisodiyot (Darslik). TDIU, 2019 — 290 bet. 

  • Greenlaw, Steven A.; Taylor, Timothy. Principles of Macroeconomics, 2 (en), Rice University, 2018 — 600 bet. ISBN 1-947172-30-1. 

  • Keynes, John Maynard. The general theory of employment, interest and money (en). Macmillan and Сo., 1936 — 403 bet. 

  • Marshall, Alfred. Principles of Economics, 8 (en), London: Macmillan and Co., 1920 — 627 bet. 

  • Mishkin, Frederic S.. The economics of money, banking, and financial markets, 4 (en), Pearson Canada, 2011 — 748 bet. ISBN 978-0-321-58471-7. 

  • Shodmonov, Sh. Sh.; Xodiyev, B. Y.. Iqtisodiyot nazariyasi (Darslik). Barkamol fayz media, 2017 — 784 bet. 

  • Tashmatov, Z.G.; Asatullayev, X.S.; Allaberganov. Iqtisodiy ta'limotlar tarixi. IQTISOD-MOLIYA, 2019 — 352 bet. 

  • Матвеева, Т. Ю. Введение в макроэкономику, 5 (ru), Издательский дом ГУ-ВШЭ, 2007 — 511 bet. ISBN 978-5-7598-0543-4. 





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